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1、Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending came to the United States in 2006, when individual investors began lending directly to individual borrowers via online platforms. In the decade since, the industry has grown dramatically, and P2P lending is now widely regarded as the most progressive consumer nance innovat
2、ion in nancial markets today. Online lenders and policymakers have suggested that the P2P market offers unique benets to consumers. Three benets are often repeated and seem to have become widely accepted. First, P2P loans allow consumers to re- nance expensive credit card debt. Second, P2P loans can
3、 help customers build their credit history and improve their credit scores. Finally, P2P proponents claim that P2P lend- ing extends access to credit to those who are underserved by traditional banks.,But signs of problems in the P2P market are appearing. Defaults on P2P loans have been increasing a
4、t an alarming rate, resem- bling pre-2007-crisis increases in subprime mortgage defaults, where loans of each vintage perform worse than those of prior origination years (gure 1). Such a signal calls for a close examination of P2P lending practices. We exploit a compre- hensive set of credit bureau
5、data to examine P2P borrowers, their credit behavior, and their credit scores. We nd that, on average, borrowers do not use P2P loans to renance pre- existing loans, credit scores actually go down for years after P2P borrowing, and P2P loans do not go to the markets under-,served by the traditional
6、banking system. Overall, P2P loans resemble predatory loans in terms of the segment of the consumer market they serve and their impact on consumers nances. Given that P2P lenders are not regulated or super- vised for antipredatory laws, lawmakers and regulators may need to revisit their position on
7、online lending marketplaces.,1,Three Myths about Peer-to-Peer Loans Yuliya Demyanyk, Elena Loutskina, and Daniel Kolliner Peer-to-peer lending platforms, which provide a way for individuals who want to invest to lend to those who want to borrow, have experienced phenomenal growth in the past decade.
8、 Many praise the industry and maintain that P2P loans provide unique benefits to consumers. We examine a comprehensive set of credit bureau data to examine P2P borrowers, their credit behavior, and their credit scores. We demonstrate there is little evidence of these benefits. In fact, P2P loans res
9、emble predatory loans in terms of the segment of the consumer market they serve and their impact on consumers finances.,Figure 1. Delinquency Rates by Loan Vintage,Panel B: Subprime Mortgages,Panel A: Peer-to-Peer Loans Percent delinquent,Source: Demyanyk and Van Hemert (2011).,0,4 5 2,6,8,10,12,14,
10、1 Loan age (years),2,2011 2008 2010 2009 2007 2006,2013,2012,2003 2002 2001,2007 2006 2005 2004,3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Loan age (months),0,10,15,20,25,Percent delinquent,Source: Authors calculations based on data from TransUnion.,ECONOMIC COMMENTARY,Number 2017-18 November 9, 2017,ISS
11、N 0428-1276,Evaluating Three Claims about P2P Lending We investigate three questions: Are P2P loans used to renance previous loans, do P2P loans help borrowers build a better credit history, and do P2P lenders serve individuals or markets underserved by traditional banks? To accurately assess these
12、questions, we need to compare the behavior of nancially identical people who differ only on one dimen- sion, namely whether they took a P2P loan. That is, we need a sample of people with the same trends of incomes, debt, credit scores, and patterns of loan repayment before any of them took out a P2P
13、 loan. Some people in the sample have taken out a P2P loan and others have not. Data with the sample of nancially identical individuals are not readily available, so we construct the sample ourselves. We use data from the TransUnion credit bureau, in which we observe about 90,000 distinct individual
14、s who received their rst P2P loan between 2007 and 2012. We also observe about 10 million individuals who did not receive P2P loans and whom we label non-P2P individuals. Using a statistical technique called propensity score matching, we identify non- P2P individuals who are nancially similar to P2P
15、 individuals during the two years prior to the date on which P2P individu- als obtained their P2P loan. We match individuals based on the location of their residence, their credit score, their total debt, their income, their number of delinquencies in the past two years, and whether or not they have
16、 a mortgage.,Are P2P loans used to refinance previous loans? The most widely promoted argument in favor of P2P lending is that it lowers borrowing costs. Consumers can take on a xed-term and potentially lower-cost P2P install- ment loan and use the proceeds to repay expensive lines of credit (e.g., credit card accounts), thus lowering their overall borrowing costs.,
