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1、,Measuring the Cost of Living 生活费用的衡量,Chapter 24,储蓄的困惑：最喜欢存钱的中国人越存越穷？,中国老百姓可能是全世界最爱存钱的，可是有人根据依据33年来的CPI的涨幅，推算出人民币33年来贬值逾6倍，也就是算，如果在1978年改革开放之初时，拥有100万元，单纯放到现在，只值当年15万元。在中国人的传统观念里，储蓄是勤俭持家的美德，但最喜欢存钱的中国人越存越穷，究竟是什么原因造成的，“越存越穷”折射出怎样的底层危机。,Measuring the Cost of Living 生活费用的衡量,Inflation refers to a situati
2、on in which the economys overall price level is rising.通货膨胀是指经济中物价总水平上升的情况。 The inflation rate is the percentage change in the price level from the previous period.通货膨胀率是从前一个时期以来物价总水平变动的百分比。,The Consumer Price Index,The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the overall cost of the goods and ser
3、vices bought by a typical consumer. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the CPI each month. It is used to monitor changes in the cost of living over time.,消费物价指数 (CPI)是普通消费者所购买的物品与劳务的总费用的衡量标准。 劳工部的一个部门劳工统计局每月都计算并公布消费物价指数。 它被用来监测生活费用随着时间的变化情况。,How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated,Fix the Bas
4、ket: Determine what prices are most important to the typical consumer. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) identifies a market basket of goods and services the typical consumer buys. The BLS conducts consumer surveys to set the weights for the prices of those goods and services.,固定篮子: 确定哪些物价对普通消费者是
5、最重要的。 劳工统计局(BLS)通过消费者调查并找出普通消费者购买的一篮子物品与劳务。 劳工统计局对消费者进行调查来确定对这些物品与劳务价格的权数。,The Inflation Rate 通货膨胀率,The inflation rate is calculated as follows: 通货膨胀率计算如下：,Table 1 Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example,Copyright2004 South-Western,表1. 计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子,第一步：调查消费者以确定
6、固定的一篮子物品,4个热狗，2个汉堡,Table 1 Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example,Copyright2004 South-Western,表1. 计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子,第二步：找出每年每种物品的价格,年,热狗价格,汉堡价格,Table 1 Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example,Copyright2004 South-Western,表1. 计算消费物价指数和
7、通货膨胀率：一个例子,第三步：计算每年一篮子物品的费用,Table 1 Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example,Copyright2004 South-Western,表1. 计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子,第四步：选择一年为基年（2001）并计算每年的消费物价指数,Table 1 Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example,Copyright2004 South-Western,表1
8、. 计算消费物价指数和通货膨胀率：一个例子,第五步：用消费物价指数计算自上一年以来的通货膨胀率,FYI: 在CPI的篮子中有些什么?,中国CPI之构成2011年调整,1 食品 31.79% 2 烟酒及用品 3.49% 3 居住 17.22% 4 交通通讯 9.95% 5 医疗保健个人用品 9.64% 6 衣着 8.52% 7 家庭设备及维修服务 5.64% 8 娱乐教育文化用品及服务13.75%,物价上涨催生网络热词,蒜你狠 豆你玩 姜你军 玉米疯 辣翻天 不茄子 糖高宗 油你涨 棉花掌 （涨）苹什么 菜奴,例题,考虑在一个只由两个人组成的经济中通货膨胀的影响：Bob是种黄豆的农民， Tom是
9、种大米的农民。他们总是消费等量的大米与黄豆。在2008年，黄豆价格是1美元，大米价格是3美元。现在假设2009年黄豆价格是2美元，大米价格是4美元。通货膨胀率是多少？,Problems in Measuring The Cost of Living 衡量生活费用中的问题,Substitution bias替代倾向 Introduction of new goods新产品的引进 Unmeasured quality changes无法衡量的质量变动,Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living,Substitution Bias The basket does
10、 not change to reflect consumer reaction to changes in relative prices. Consumers substitute toward goods that have become relatively less expensive. The index overstates the increase in cost of living by not considering consumer substitution.,替代倾向 当不同产品的相对价格发生变化时，消费者会通过改变购买习惯对此有所反应，而计算物价指数的市场篮子保持不变
11、。 消费者转向购买变得相对便宜的替代物品。 消费物价指数不考虑这种消费者替代的可能性，从而高估了生活费用的增加。,晋惠帝曰：百姓无栗米充饥，何不食肉糜？ 老百姓吃不起猪肉可以吃牛肉,Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living,Introduction of New Goods The basket does not reflect the change in purchasing power brought on by the introduction of new products. New products result in greater vari
12、ety, which in turn makes each dollar more valuable. Consumers need fewer dollars to maintain any given standard of living.,新产品的引进 当引进了一种新产品时，消费者有了更多的选择，使货币的购买力增加，计算消费物价指数的市场篮子并没有反映这种变动。 新产品的引进为消费者提供了更多的选择机会，进而使每一美元更值钱。 消费者可以需要更少的美元来维持一定的生活水平。,Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living,Unmeasured Quali
13、ty Changes If the quality of a good rises from one year to the next, the value of a dollar rises, even if the price of the good stays the same. If the quality of a good falls from one year to the next, the value of a dollar falls, even if the price of the good stays the same. The BLS tries to adjust
14、 the price for constant quality, but such differences are hard to measure.,无法衡量的质量变动 如果从一年到下一年物品的质量上升了，即使该物品的价格保持不变，一美元的价值也上升了。 如果从一年到下一年物品的质量变差了，即使该物品的价格保持不变，一美元的价值也下降了。 劳工统计局尽其最大努力调整价格来考虑质量变动，但是这些质量差异很难衡量。,The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index,The GDP deflator reflects the prices of all
15、 goods and services produced domestically, whereas. the consumer price index reflects the prices of all goods and services bought by consumers.,GDP 平减指数反映了国内生产的所有物品与劳务的价格，而. 消费物价指数反映消费者购买的所有物品与劳务的价格。,The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index,The consumer price index compares the price of a fi
16、xed basket of goods and services to the price of the basket in the base year (only occasionally does the BLS change the basket). whereas the GDP deflator compares the price of currently produced goods and services to the price of the same goods and services in the base year.,消费物价指数 比较固定的一篮子物品与劳务的价格与基年这一篮子物品与劳务的价格（劳工局只是偶尔改变这一篮子物品）. 而GDP平减指数比较现期生产的物品与劳务的价格与基年同样物品与劳务的价格。,Figure 2 Two Measures of Inflation 通货膨胀的两个衡量指标,
