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1、 Barclays | China Internet 15 August 2018 2 ONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 A NEW PARADIGM FOR CHINA INTERNET 6 Inflection Point Marks A New Paradigm for China Internet . 6 The Bottleneck of User Engagement Showed Up in 2017 7 But Things Started to Change in 1H18 . 8 Short Videos Gain Is Not Necessarily
2、 Others Loss 9 The Lessons Learnt from the Rise of Short Video 12 QUANTIFICATION OF MONETIZATION EFFICIENCY . 15 Alibaba Tops the Sector, Tencent has Largest Upside Potential 15 The Ladder of Large/Mega Names Monetization on Ad . 16 A CLOSER LOOK AT TOP-RANKING MOBILE VERTICALS 19 Short Video The Ne
3、w Comer Changes The Landscape . 19 Instant Messenger Mini Program driving user engagement 26 Long Video User Growth Solid, but Time Spent Impacted . 27 Gaming Solid Growth Momentum Across Key User Metrics . 28 News Stable market share; synergies with short video . 29 Social Solid growth driven by ev
4、ents and unique social features, unaffected by short video32 Shopping Team purchase has accelerated growth . 33 Search Integration of search and feeds fuelling time spent . 34 Live Streaming Moderate growth given competition from short video 35 WEIXIN MINI PROGRAMS ANOTHER GAME CHANGER 38 COMPANY SE
5、CTION . 45 Alibaba (OW; PT $230): The Most Effective Way to Monetize Use Time Spent 45 User Metric Analysis of Top Ranking Apps 46 Tencent (OW; PT$59): The Biggest Monetization Potential 51 Barclays | China Internet 15 August 2018 3 User Metric Analysis of Top Ranking Apps 52 Weibo (OW; PT$130): A B
6、eneficiary, Rather than a Victim . 59 User Metric Analysis of Top Ranking Apps 60 Baidu (EW; PT$275): Newsfeed Fuels Growth 62 User Metric Analysis of Top Ranking Apps 63 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Year to date, concerns over Chinas macro slowdown, FX headwinds and the US/China trade war weigh on the sector,
7、 as the major mega and large names (BABA +3.0%; BIDU 7.1%; TCEHY -11.9%; WB -25.7%) substantially underperformed the index (Nasdaq +13.3%). But we maintain our positive view on China Internet, as the sectors fundamentals have been improving since early 2018, with all key mobile user metrics achievin
8、g historical highs as of June 2018. Users time spent and mindshare continue to migrate from offline activities (TV, print, radio) and PC to mobile, and has accelerated in the past half year driven by new functions and technology innovations. In this report, we also introduce some quantitative measur
9、es to help analyze the industry. As the most digitized industry, Internet theoretically should be a data-rich and researchfriendly sector. By introducing alternative data (QuestMobile) of user metrics and combining with financial data, we gain greater insight into industry dynamics. The key take-awa
10、y Nearly every metric we track is accelerating: Total user time spent on mobile surged 30% y/y in June 18, vs. 10% in December 17; Monthly smartphone users increased 5% y/y to reach 1.1bn as of June 18; Total mobile app visits rose by 14% y/y in June 18, vs. 1% in December 17 Each users daily time s
11、pent on mobile spiked 24% y/y to 4.1 hours in June 18; Time spent per app visit went up by 14% y/y to 2.9mins in June 18; and User visits per device per day grew by 9% y/y to 85 times in June 18. A key investor concern is the potential impact from the rise of short video, where time spent increased
12、fivefold y/y as of June 18, and time spent market share increased 6.8ppt y/y to 8.8%. However, our analysis shows that short videos contribution to user time spent is more incremental. By stripping out the short video vertical, total user time spent on other Internet verticals still increased 21% y/
13、y (Figure 1), and each users daily time spent climbed 15% y/y to 3.8 hours per day (Figure 2). Barclays | China Internet 15 August 2018 4 FIGURE 1 User total Internet user time spent (excluding short video) %010%20%3040%5002,0004,0006,0008,000Jan17 Ma r17 Ma y17Jul17 Se p17 No v17 Jan18 Ma r18 Ma y1
14、8Total time spent excluding short videoy/y growth %bn minsSource: QuestMobile, Barclays Research FIGURE 2 Average time spent (excluding short video) per user per day -%100%10%20%30%402.02.53.03.54.0Jan17 Ma r17 Ma y17Jul17 Se p17 No v17 Jan18 Ma r18 Ma y18y/y growth %hours spent per device per dayHo
15、urs spent per device per daySource: QuestMobile, Barclays Research Merchants ad budgets and consumer spending always follow: 1) commercial intent, and 2) user volume and time spent. Based on this rule, we expect ad budgets and users consumption to shift from other marketing channels onto mobile in t
16、he next couple of quarters. At the same time, we expect vertical category leaders, “BATW” group (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Weibo), to be the key beneficiaries. In order to have a better understanding of the companies monetization efficiency and potential, we looked into BATW groups unit economics, which also gives us an opportunity to quantify the ad monetization efficiency of the top-4 ran
