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1、ECONOMICS CHINA August 2018By: Qu Hongbin and Kelvin Ho-Por Lamhttps:/Disclaimer however, the GBA is much more than that. The GBAs focus is on developing a major industrial cluster for technology and innovation, leading the nations ascent up the global value chain. Chinas smartest city At the heart
2、of the GBA is the city of Shenzhen, chosen by Deng Xiaoping 40 years ago as the incubator of the countrys economic reforms, and now Chinas leading technology innovation hub. The city spends 4.3% of its GDP on research and development (R however, there is no rustbelt curse here. On the contrary, the
3、area is now more the cradle of Chinas innovative future than the grave of its industrial past. What is the Greater Bay Area (GBA)? There is no famous bay, as there is an actual San Francisco Bay or Tokyo Bay, even though there are plenty of watery inlets in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) that could be
4、called bays. Instead, the GBA is an idea, just as the one in San Francisco is today home to an exuberant proliferation of things new, driven by a confluence of technology and imagination. The GBA consists of nine cities in Guangdong province (Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Foshan,
5、 Huizhou, Jiangmen, and Zhaoqing) and the two Special Administrative Regions (SARs) of Hong Kong and Macao (see Appendix for a timeline of the creation of the GBA). The GBAs GDP was around USD1.5trn in 2017, about 12% of the national total. We expect economic output to equal that of the New York Met
6、ropolitan Area by 2025. While the Big Idea is very much about the present and the future, the more prosaic idea of cooperation goes back more than a decade and a half. In 2003, a Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) was signed between Hong Kong and the Mainland to forge closer economic tie
7、s. Those were not auspicious times, given the outbreak of the SARS pandemic a year earlier. In 2006, steps were taken to construct a one-hour commuting circle in the area as ECONOMICS CHINA August 2018 well as joint pollution control measures. More cooperation followed in 2010 and in July 2017; the
8、National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) reached an agreement with the relevant governments to deepen the development in and co-operation between the cities. Crucially, the key points included deepening the collaboration between the high-tech and innovative industries in Shenzhen and the fi
9、nancial and legal services in Hong Kong, aimed at making the area a world-class technology hub. Furthermore, the underlying goal of the GBA is to further integrate Hong Kong and Macao with the Mainland. Table 1. Summary of Greater Bay Area statistics Population Area GDP GDP per capita Output per km2
10、 Deposits# Retail Sales Utilised FDI R more importantly, it contributed more than a quarter (USD26bn) to Chinas trade surplus in high-tech goods. This vibrant sector showed its resilience once again in 2015 when, as Chinas overall high-tech output decreased, high-tech industrial production value in
11、Guangdong province kept growing and hit USD600bn in 2016, a fifth of Chinas total (see Chart 7). In that year there were almost 20,000 companies in the province with ties to the new economy. We expect Guangdongs tradition of taking a more liberal approach to industrial policy to continue ECONOMICS C
12、HINA August 2018 16 Chart 37: High-tech firms, exports and output 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16High-Tech Industrial Output Value High-Tech Export Value Number of High-Tech EnterpriseGuangdong Shenzhen Rest of China Guangdong (% share of total, RHS)2
13、025e (% share of total, RHS)Source: Various Guangdong Statistical Yearbooks, Shenzhen Statistical Yearbooks, HSBC Research Shenzhens share in high-tech exports to hit 40% by 2025 We believe Shenzhen and Hong Kong are firmly on course to becoming the countrys most important innovation and technology
14、hubs. We expect Shenzhens high-tech exports to account for c40% of the nations total by 2025, while close to 45% of high-tech firms will be based in the province of Guangdong (see Chart 37). There are many reasons: Shenzhen has a mature manufacturing base and a comprehensive supply chain that enable
15、 efficient commercialisation of high-tech ideas by entrepreneurs. The city not only has the talent that understands the demand of the domestic market but also has access to it. Most important of all is the people. Shenzhen has the entrepreneurial spirit and dynamism that Hong Kong once had and the h
16、igh calibre of the workforce will enable the development of its research capacity in the future. Hong Kong, on the other hand, is a veteran financier and is expected to continue to provide capital to satisfy the development needs of these emerging new industries. Although more work still needs to be done on providing early capital, we are already seeing signs that t
