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1、在机遇和挑战中成长 中国航空货运企业发展趋势,何 宗 凯 副总经理,中国南方航空公司 2007年3月26日,Development Trend of Chinas Air Cargo Carriers,He Zongkai Vice President China Southern Airlines Co., Ltd. Guangzhou, China March 26, 2007,Content,中国航空货运业前景 The Future of Chinas Air Cargo Industry中国航空货运的发展Development of Air Cargo Industry,中国航空货运业
2、前景,The Future of Chinas Air Cargo Industry,航空货运的货物价值占贸易总额35，但重量仅占2。35% of the trade value, but only 2% of the weight.,2% of the weight,35% of thetrade value,IATA统计，2007年世界贸易平均增长7.5，而航空货运仅增长约4。 In 2007,the World trade grew 7.5%, but air cargo only grew about 4%.,World trade grew 7.5%,Air cargo grew 4
3、%,进出口总额2002年，6208亿；2007年，21738亿；占全球比重从3到8。Total import and export volume is from 620.8 billion in 2002 to 2173.8 billion in 2007.,2002,3%,2007,8%,620.8Billion,2183.8Billion,国际贸易的增长趋势将不会改变The increase of international trade will not change.高科技和高附加值产品出口将巩固航空货源Exports of high technology and high value-
4、added products will consolidate aviation sources,全球航空货运周转量预测 Forecast of FTK in the main market,Source: Air Bus,中国航空货运周转量预测 Forecast of FTK in China relative market,Source：Air Bus,今后几年内，每年将有两、三百架大型宽体飞机投入运行。There will be 200 to 300 new wide-body aircrafts every year in the next few year.货机运力增长给经营带来巨大
5、压力。The increase of freighter brings tremendous operating pressure.,中国大陆货机需求预测 Forecast of freighters requirement,Source：Air Bus,货机储备订单量 Freighter backlog,Source: Air Bus,航空安全方面的挑战 The Challenge of the Air Security,安全是第一位的。 Safety comes first. 安全的投入将增加。 The cost of safeguard will increase.,航空政策放松 The
6、 aviation policy is loosening,更少的限制 Less Restrictions 更自由的货运 More freely 更大的竞争 More competition,国际原油价格大幅上涨 Crude oil price increases steeply,Source: FutureS,国内航油走势图 The trend of oil price in China,Source：HuaTai Security,航油威胁 The threat of oil cost increase,2007年，全球航油成本上升至1490亿美元。The oil cost increas
7、es to $149 billion in 2007.成本上升对行业发展前景造成不利影响。The increase of oil cost has bad influence to the industry.,航空运价持续下降 Freight yield Decreases Continuously,1985年至2005年间，在考虑通货膨胀因素后，运价持续走低。 From 1985 to 2005, freight yield declined (having taken into account of influence of inflation)随着货运运力的增长，中国国内运价将继续下降。
8、 With the increase of capacity, the freight yield of Chinas domestic market will further decrease.,航空运价在1985年-2005年间，以每年2.8的速度下降. Freight yield declined at an average rate of 2.8% from 1985 to 2005.,Source: Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2006/2007,中国航空货运的发展Development of Air Cargo Industry,南航的目标 Ou
9、r target,更好的服务 Better service 更低的价钱 Lower price 更快的速度 Faster 更完整的物流解决方案 Logistic solution,航线网络建设 Airlines network,中国南方航空股份有限公司是国内运输飞机最多、航线网络最密集、年客运量最大的航空公司。China Southern Airlines operates the largest and most technologically advanced airline fleet as well as the most extensive domestic air network
10、in The Peoples Republic of China.,南航货运为全球152个大中城市提供直达货运服务。 China Southern Cargo now provids service to 152 cities in the world. 2007年，我们的货邮可用吨公里达4331百万吨公里；完成货邮运输量87.2万吨，同比增长6.5；货邮始发收入同比增长6.92。 In 2007,our ATK is 4331 million ton kilometers; the traffic is 872,000 ton, as 6.5% grows from 2006;the rev
11、enue grows 6.92% from 2006.,南航货运的航线网络 The network of CZ Cargo,未来计划 Our plan,以货机为主干，客机腹舱为辅助的货运航线网络。 Integration network of freighter and passenger aircraft belly. 今后几年南航将逐步增加货机运力：已经定购了9架B777货机（确认定购6架，意向定购3架），并进行A300客改货。 China Southern will increase freighters:9 B777 freighters (6 confirmed, 3 intent)
12、, A300 converted freighter,营销网络建设 Sales network,从点到点营销到网络营销。 From airlines sales to network sales. 建立以广州为中心的航空货运枢纽。 Establish the air cargo hub with the center of Guangzhou.,地面服务网络的建设 Ground handling network,在货物运输所耗的时间中，空中占8，地面操作占92。Ground handling cost the 92% time of air cargo transportation, as a
13、ir traveling only cost 8%.,打造高效地面网络 Ground service network,更细致的货运产品 Comprehensive cargo products 卡车联运 Trucking 货运信息系统 Cargo IT system,南航国内货运产品体系 China southern domestic cargo product system,七项货运产品：Seven Cargo Products:快件、小件货物、特殊照顾货物、超重货物、限时中转、低时效货物和到达派送。Express, Small Size, Special Care Cargo, Heavy
14、, Transfer, Time insensitive and Delivery,地面保障与分拨体系 Ground handling and distribution system,南航在广州、深圳、沈阳和大连等11个地方拥有自营货站。China Southern has cargo terminal in 11 cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Shenyang, Dalian and so on. 卡车联运使南航的货运范围覆盖中国、北美和西欧的所有重要城市。Trucking makes China Southern can reach all imp
15、ortant cities in China, North America and West Europe.,货运信息系统是一个汇集操作、收益管理及管理决策系统的一体化平台Advanced cargo IT system is an integrated platform that combines the functions of operation, revenue management and decision support.,促进信息化建设 Cargo IT system,加强合作 Cooperation with Partners,航空货运是航空公司所在供应链之间的竞争To win
16、 the Competition of air cargo business is providing supply chain solutions to satisfy customer needs.南航不断加强与国内外航空公司、机场和其它相关单位的合作Strengthen the cooperation with airlines, airports and other relative companies and organizations.,总结 Conclusion,中国航空货运业发展远景良好，但短期内仍面临困难和挑战。Chinas air cargo industry has beautiful future, but faces challenge in short term.,航空安全、油价持续上涨、短期运力过剩、货物运输的单向性、运价持续走低和市场竞争更加激烈将是国内航空公司面临的主要挑战。 Air cargo companies in mainland China will face aviation safety, increase in oil price, capacity surplus in short term, transportation imbalance, fees going down and serious competition.,
