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1、CONFIDENTIAL,Chinas Mobile Telecom Services Industry Overview,GCO Practice Development,May 2002,This report is solely for the use of Firm personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution without prior written approval from McKinsey & Company.,02 PD China Mobile Tele
2、coms Service Industry 020403.ppt,1,ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS AND REFERENCES,MGMs and CSS involved in the relevant studies include the following:,Tony Perkins (BEI) Stefan Albrecht (BEI) Chipper Boulas (HKO) Peter Kenevan (TOK) Perchow Joseph Chang (SHA) Andrew Wu (HKO) Hai Wu (BEI) Jane Xing (HK) Yi Feng (BE
3、I) Sheng F Li (SHA) Yoshinobu Takanuki (TOK) Graeme Hunter (JOH) Julia Yang (BEI) Eric Xu (BEI) Jason Liu (BEI) Shirley Chen (BEI),The series of PDs include the following:,# China Macroeconomic Environment # Chinas Mobile Telecom Service Industry Overview # Chinas Internet Industry Overview # China
4、Telecom Equipment and Services Overview # Chinas Mobile Handset Sector Overview # China Telecom Industry Regulatory Overview # Key Success Factors and Case Studies of MNCs Entry to China,02 PD China Mobile Telecoms Service Industry 020403.ppt,2,KEY MESSAGES,1. Chinas mobile telecom service market is
5、 huge and fast growing, representing US$21 billion market size in 2001 and US$38 billion in 2005. This market is supported by the worlds largest subscriber base at 145 million, already comprising 15% of the worlds total in 2001 and growing to potentially 218 million in a low case or 300 million in a
6、 high case by 20052. The competitive landscape for mobile services has evolved from a single regulator and operator to todays duopoly of China Unicom and China Mobile, both of whom are unassociated with the Ministry of Information Industries. A second breakup of China Telecom is expected to form two
7、 large telecom operators, China Telecom and China Netcom Group, who are likely to receive mobile licenses. A fifth telecom operator, China Railcom, also has the potential of receiving a third generation license and building a mobile business. For now, China Mobile dominates the market with 82% value
8、 share and 72% subscriber share and owns much of the high value user base. However churn is already high and is expected to increase with continuing pricing pressures and increased competition.3. Wireless data services are expected to grow quickly in China to a market of potentially over US$4 billio
9、n by 2005, used by 43% of all mobile users. Interest from consumer surveys have been high and operators and other players are actively building services in the market. While early WAP services have failed to catch on, SMS has grown exponentially with up to 20 billion SMS messages in 2001. The early
10、adopters will be mobile professionals and modern youth, who will require services and devices tailored to their needs. 4. Regulatory changes loom, particularly with the accession of China to the WTO. While foreigners will be unlikely to set up MVNOs, WTO will allow greater participation of foreigner
11、s in basic and value added services, although geographic limitations will exist through 2004 and Chinese players will be required to own at least 50% of telecom service ventures (51% for basic services). Regulatory risks remain, with no means to appeal regulator decisions, unclear interpretation of
12、regulation including WTO commitments, and the governments track record of intransparent and unpredictable decision making. (See separate regulatory PD for details)Appendix Players profiles 3G technology standards choices,02 PD China Mobile Telecoms Service Industry 020403.ppt,3,KEY MESSAGES,1. China
13、s mobile telecom service market is huge and fast growing, representing US$21 billion market size in 2001 and US$38 billion in 2005. This market is supported by the worlds largest subscriber base at 145 million, already comprising 15% of the worlds total in 2001 and growing to potentially 218 million
14、 in a low case or 300 million in a high case by 2005,02 PD China Mobile Telecoms Service Industry 020403.ppt,4,1997-2001 MOBILE SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH OF 30% CAGR HAS OUTPACED OTHER TELECOM SERVICE SECTORS AND IS PROJECTED AT 16% THROUGH 2005,Revenues US$ Billions,CAGR vs. other industries (1997-200
15、1) Percent,Mobile,Fixed line,Paging,CAGR 30%,CAGR 16%,Source: Deutsche Bank; McKinsey analysis,02 PD China Mobile Telecoms Service Industry 020403.ppt,5,* Revenues do not equal the product of ARPU as subscriber figures are provided for year end, not average subscribers during a year. Detailed inform
16、ation on the timing of new subscriptions and churn required for the calculation of average subscribers during a given year is not available* All CAGRs are calculated on the announced data Source: Deutsche Bank; JP Morgan; MII,EXTRAORDINARY SUBSCRIBER GROWTH IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF REVENUE EVOLUTION, MORE THAN MAKING UP FOR LARGE DECLINES IN ARPU DUE TO STIFF COMPETITION,Mobile revenues* $ Billions,Number of subscribers low case Millions,CAGR 30%,CAGR 16%,CAGR 83%,
