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1、1,30,货币增长与通货膨胀 Money Growth and Inflation,通货膨胀 Inflation,通货膨胀是总体价格水平的上升Inflation is an increase in the overall level of prices.,3,通货膨胀：历史面目 Inflation: Historical Aspects,在过去70年里，价格平均每年上升约4个百分点。Over the past seventy years, prices have risen on average about 5 percent per year. 通货紧缩，即平均价格的下降，在19世纪的美国出
2、现过。 Deflation, meaning decreasing average prices, occurred in the U.S. in the nineteenth century. 超速通货膨胀指的是很高的通货膨胀率，例如20世纪20年代的德国所经历的那样。 Hyperinflation refers to high rates of inflation such as Germany experienced in the 1920s.,4,通货膨胀：历史面目 Inflation: Historical Aspects,（在美国）在20世纪70年代，价格每年上升7个百分点。 In
3、 the 1970s prices rose by 7 percent per year. 在20世纪90年代，价格平均每年上升2个百分点。 During the 1990s, prices rose at an average rate of 2 percent per year.,5,通货膨胀：历史面目 Inflation: Historical Aspects,在中国，改革开放以前，价格平均每年上升约1个百分点。大部分时期价格稳定甚至下降。 最高的1961年达到16个百分点 最低的1963年为-6个百分点（通货紧缩） 改革开放以来，价格平均每年上升约7个百分点。 最高的1994年达到了2
4、4个百分点 最低的1999年为-1个百分点（通货紧缩） 2000-2007年均2个百分点,6,通货膨胀的古典理论 The Classical Theory of Inflation,货币数量论用来解释价格水平和通货膨胀率的长期决定因素。 The quantity theory of money is used to explain the long-run determinants of the price level and the inflation rate.,7,价格水平与货币价值 The Level of Prices and the Value of Money,通货膨胀是涉及经济
5、中交换媒介的价值的整体经济现象。 Inflation is an economy-wide phenomenon that concerns the value of the economys medium of exchange. 如果P是用货币衡量的物品与服务的价格，则1/P就是用物品与服务衡量的货币价值。 If P is the price of goods and services, 1/P is the value of money measured in terms of goods and services. 当整个价格水平上升，货币价值下降。 When the overall
6、price level rises, the value of money falls.,8,货币供给、货币需求与货币均衡 Money Supply, Money Demand, and Monetary Equilibrium,货币的价值是由货币的供给与需求决定的。 The value of money is determined by the supply and demand for money.,9,货币供给 Money Supply,货币供给是由美联储控制的政策变量。The money supply is a policy variable that is controlled by
7、 the Fed. 通过公开市场运作等工具，美联储直接控制货币供给的数量。 Through instruments such as open-market operations, the Fed directly controls the quantity of money supplied.,10,货币需求 Money Demand,货币需求反映人们愿意以流动的形式持有的财富数量。 The demand for money reflects how much wealth people want to hold in liquid form. 货币需求有若干决定因素： Money deman
8、d has several determinants: 物价水平 the average level of prices in the economy 产出 Production 利率 interest rates 信用卡与自动取款机的普及程度 the availability of credit cards and ATMs,11,人们持有货币是因为它是交换媒介。 People hold money because it is the medium of exchange. 人们选择持有的货币数量，取决于物品与服务的价格。 The amount of money people choose
9、to hold depends on the prices of goods and services. 物价水平上升（货币价值下降）增加了货币的需求量。 A higher price level (a lower value of money) increases the quantity of money demanded.,货币需求 Money Demand,货币供给、货币需求与货币均衡 Money Supply, Money Demand, and Monetary Equilibrium,在长期，总体价格水平调整到货币供求平衡的水平。 In the long run, the ove
10、rall level of prices adjusts to the level at which the demand for money equals the supply.,13,0,1,(Low低),(High高),(High高),(Low低),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,货币供给、货币需求与均衡价格水平Money Supply, Money Demand, and the Equilibrium Price Level,14,A,MS1,0,1,(Low),(High高),(High),(Low低),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,货币需求Money
11、,demand,货币注入的影响 The Effects of Monetary Injection,M1,15,调整过程简述 A Brief Look at the Adjustment Process,货币注入的直接影响是创造了超额货币供给。 The immediate effect of a monetary injection is to create an excess supply of money. 它增加了物品与服务的需求。 It increases the demand for goods and services. 但是，经济生产物品与服务的能力并没有变。 However,
12、the economys ability to supply goods and services has not changed. 因此，这种更大的物品与服务的需求就引起物品与服务的价格上升。 Thus, the greater demand for goods and services causes the prices of goods and services to increase. 物价水平上升又增加了货币需求量，直到它等于新的货币供给量。 The increase in the price level increases the quantity of money demande
13、d until it equals the new quantity of money supplied.,16,货币数量理论 The Quantity Theory of Money,价格水平如何决定、它为何会随时间改变，对此的（一种）解释是货币数量论。 How the price level is determined and why it might change over time is called the quantity theory of money. 经济中可得的货币数量决定了货币价值。 The quantity of money available in the economy determines the value of money. 通货膨胀的基本原因是货币数量的增长。 The primary cause of inflation is the growth in the quantity of money.,
