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1、Food Security Issues in China: Challenges and Strategies,Dr. Ke Bingsheng China Agricultural University,Outline,Past development and current situation Production growth 1978-2009 Trade Major challenges Rising demand Slow-down of production growth Policy practice and future perspectives 30 years refo
2、rm and current policy Options for improvements,Past development and current situation,Declined agricultural shares,Development 1978-2009,Grain production growth: 73%, or 1.8% on average per year Meat production: increased by over 7 times Fishery production: increased by over 8 times Farmers income:
3、7% annually in real term.,Grain production in China 1978-2009, in million tons,Wheat production in China, in million tons,Paddy rice production in China in million tons,Corn production in China in million tons,Meat and milk production in China in million tons,Agricultural and Food Trade in 2009,Net
4、importer High dependence: import of soybean: 42.55 million tons, implying 15% of total cropping areas would be needed if produced domestically in 2009. Of 75% of soybean demand is imported. Import of edible oils: 10.29 million tons,Import in the first eight months in 2010,Deficit of agri-and food tr
5、ade：US$ 15.2 billion Soybean import: 35.53 million tons. Cotton: 2.17 million tons Edible oils: 5.77 million tons,Agricultural and food trade in China including fishery, in billion US$,Agricultural and food import in China %,Agricultural and food export in China %,Cereals Trade in China in million t
6、ons,Soybean Trade in China in million tons,Cotton Trade in China in million tons,Edible oil trade in China in million tons,Major challenges,Challenges for balancing demand and supply (1),Continued demand: 90 million tons for 2005-2020, or 6 million tons per year: population growth: 47 million t urba
7、nization (increased urban share in population): 10 million t income improvement: 10 million t growth of other sectors (without biofuel): 23 million t,Challenges for balancing demand and supply (2),Constraints in production Reduction of arable land due to urbanization Degradation of land quality Shor
8、tage of irrigation water Rising production costs for labor and material inputs: falling cropping index Slow-down in yield improvements,Grain areas in China 100 million Mu,Cropping areas by crop，亿亩,Grain yield in China, kg/mu,Grain yield in China, kg/mu,Grain yield increases, %,Grain Yields by Provin
9、ce, 2008,World Export, 100 million tons,Policy practice and future perspectives,30 Years Reform,1978-2002: introduction of market system Collective production units replaced by individual farmers Government purchasing and distribution replaced by market mechanism Free migration of labor forces betwe
10、en rural-urban 2002-present: support policy addressing market failures Abolishment of agricultural tax, ending a history of 2600 years Direct subsidy to farmers: quality seed, grain farmers, input subsidy Support price for paddy rice, wheat, corn Increased inputs in agricultural service, rural infra
11、structure, education, health care and social security,Policies to promote production incentive,Grain area subsidy Subsidy to mitigate effects from price hike of farm inputs Grain seed subsidy Subsidy for purchase of farm machines Subsidy to sows,Budget outlay for supporting agriculture and its share
12、,Policy to promote productivity,Stricter control on taking farmland for non-farm purposes Increased public funding in: irrigation and other infrastructure extension research Other public service: information, food safety, dieses control,Policy to reduce demand,Establishment of new biofuel plants usi
13、ng grains as feedstock is in fact prohibited since 2007.,Trade policy,In practice: Much more freer than WTO commitments: Soybean import tax: 1% from 3%(WTO) Cotton: ca. 5% from 40% (WTO) Similar can happen to other key products when in shortage,Future perspectives,Import of land-intensive commoditie
14、s (low yield products: oilseeds, cotton, wheat) will further expand; There will be no food crisis for China for the short and mid-term. Long term food security depends on protection and improvement of farmland and yield improvement (for both crop and livestock). Technological innovation and application in both traditional and biotechnology areas will be the key. We have a crucial role in this!,Thank you！,
