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1、Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis,1,Chapter 12 Decision Analysis,Introduction to Management Science 8th Edition by Bernard W. Taylor III,Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis,2,Components of Decision Making Decision Making without Probabilities Decision Making with Probabilities Decision Analysis with Additio
2、nal Information Utility,Chapter Topics,Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis,3,Table 12.1 Payoff Table,A state of nature is an actual event that may occur in the future. A payoff table is a means of organizing a decision situation, presenting the payoffs from different decisions given the various states of
3、 nature.,Decision Analysis Components of Decision Making,Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis,4,Decision situation:Decision-Making Criteria: maximax, maximin, minimax, minimax regret, Hurwicz, and equal likelihood,Table 12.2 Payoff Table for the Real Estate Investments,Decision Analysis Decision Making wi
4、thout Probabilities,Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis,5,Table 12.3 Payoff Table Illustrating a Maximax Decision,In the maximax criterion the decision maker selects the decision that will result in the maximum of maximum payoffs; an optimistic criterion.,Decision Making without Probabilities Maximax Cri
5、terion,Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis,6,Table 12.4 Payoff Table Illustrating a Maximin Decision,In the maximin criterion the decision maker selects the decision that will reflect the maximum of the minimum payoffs; a pessimistic criterion.,Decision Making without Probabilities Maximin Criterion,Chap
6、ter 12 - Decision Analysis,7,Table 12.6 Regret Table Illustrating the Minimax Regret Decision,Regret is the difference between the payoff from the best decision and all other decision payoffs. The decision maker attempts to avoid regret by selecting the decision alternative that minimizes the maximu
7、m regret.,Decision Making without Probabilities Minimax Regret Criterion,Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis,8,The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the maximax and maximin criterion. A coefficient of optimism, , is a measure of the decision makers optimism. The Hurwicz criterion multiplies the b
8、est payoff by and the worst payoff by 1- ., for each decision, and the best result is selected.Decision Values Apartment building $50,000(.4) + 30,000(.6) = 38,000Office building $100,000(.4) - 40,000(.6) = 16,000Warehouse $30,000(.4) + 10,000(.6) = 18,000,Decision Making without Probabilities Hurwi
9、cz Criterion,Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis,9,The equal likelihood ( or Laplace) criterion multiplies the decision payoff for each state of nature by an equal weight, thus assuming that the states of nature are equally likely to occur.Decision Values Apartment building $50,000(.5) + 30,000(.5) = 40,
10、000Office building $100,000(.5) - 40,000(.5) = 30,000Warehouse $30,000(.5) + 10,000(.5) = 20,000,Decision Making without Probabilities Equal Likelihood Criterion,Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis,10,A dominant decision is one that has a better payoff than another decision under each state of nature. Th
11、e appropriate criterion is dependent on the “risk” personality and philosophy of the decision maker.Criterion Decision (Purchase)Maximax Office buildingMaximin Apartment buildingMinimax regret Apartment buildingHurwicz Apartment buildingEqual likelihood Apartment building,Decision Making without Pro
12、babilities Summary of Criteria Results,Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis,11,Exhibit 12.1,Decision Making without Probabilities Solution with QM for Windows (1 of 3),Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis,12,Exhibit 12.2,Decision Making without Probabilities Solution with QM for Windows (2 of 3),Chapter 12 - De
13、cision Analysis,13,Exhibit 12.3,Decision Making without Probabilities Solution with QM for Windows (3 of 3),Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis,14,Expected value is computed by multiplying each decision outcome under each state of nature by the probability of its occurrence.EV(Apartment) = $50,000(.6) +
14、30,000(.4) = 42,000EV(Office) = $100,000(.6) - 40,000(.4) = 44,000EV(Warehouse) = $30,000(.6) + 10,000(.4) = 22,000,Table 12.7 Payoff table with Probabilities for States of Nature,Decision Making with Probabilities Expected Value,Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis,15,The expected opportunity loss is the
15、 expected value of the regret for each decision. The expected value and expected opportunity loss criterion result in the same decision.EOL(Apartment) = $50,000(.6) + 0(.4) = 30,000EOL(Office) = $0(.6) + 70,000(.4) = 28,000EOL(Warehouse) = $70,000(.6) + 20,000(.4) = 50,000,Table 12.8 Regret (Opportu
16、nity Loss) Table with Probabilities for States of Nature,Decision Making with Probabilities Expected Opportunity Loss,Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis,16,Exhibit 12.4,Expected Value Problems Solution with QM for Windows,Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis,17,Exhibit 12.5,Expected Value Problems Solution with Excel and Excel QM (1 of 2),
