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1、6 温室效应应I.温室效应和温室气体II.温室效应对气候变化的影响Global WarmingGlobal WarmingTemperature over the past 1000 yearsl“到2020年，欧洲沿海城市将被上升的海平面所淹没，英国气 候将像西伯利亚一样寒冷干燥。核战、大旱、饥饿和暴乱等问 题将困扰全球各国。”l“中国南部地区在2010年前后将发生持续整整10年的特大干旱 。中国北方将水患不断，南方一片干旱”l“今后20年全球气候变化对人类构成的威胁要超过恐怖主义。” “Now the Pentagon Tells Bush: Climate Change Will Des
2、troy Us ”，Published on Sunday, February 22, 2004 by the Observer/UK气候问题不仅仅是一个科学问题http:/ 一些关键词l(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)是由世界气象组织(WMO)和联合国 环境署(UNEP)在1988年共同建立的，包括三个工作组：第一工作组为科学工作组，负责评估可获得的气候变化的科学信息；第二工作组为影响工作组，负责评估气候变化产生的环境和社会经济影 响；第三工作组为响应对策工作组，负责制订有关处理气候变化问
3、题的响应 策略。这三个工作组在IPCC的指导下分头进行工作，其主要目的旨在获取气 候变化及其影响以及减缓和适应气候变化措施方面的科学和社会经济信息， 以综合、客观、开放和透明的方式进行科学评估，并根据需求为联合国气候 变化框架公约(UNFCCC)成员国会议(COP)提供科学、技术和社会经济建议 。IPCC是一个政府间科学技术机构，所有联合国成员国和世界气象组织会 员的国家都是IPCC的成员，可以参加IPCC及其各工作组的活动和会议。 一些关键词l京都协议联合国气候变化框架公约，1997年12月在日本京都达成的协议 。 目前，已有141个国家批准了该项协议，中国是其中之一（目前中国二氧化 碳排放
4、量已位居世界第二）。 2005年2月16日开始正式生效 。2005年11月28日，为期10天的联合国气候变化框架公约第11次缔 约方大会在加拿大蒙特利尔市举行。来自190多个国家和地区的8000多名代 表出席此次会议，使它成为自1997年产生京都议定书的京都大会后全 球最大和最重要的一次有关气候变化的会议。美国人口仅占全球人口的3至4，排放的二氧化碳却占全球排放量 的25以上，是全球温室气体排放量最大的国家。令人遗憾的是，美国对 签署京都议定书却一直持消极态度。迫于国际社会的压力，克林顿政 府曾于1998年11月签署了京都议定书。布什政府上台后，于2001年宣 布退出京都议定书，令世界为之震惊
5、。 I.温室效应和温室气体传统意义上的温室效应示意图Greenhouse effect大气温室效应 示意图地球大气对太阳短 波辐射吸收很少使得太 阳辐射可以顺利通过到 达地面，而由于地球大 气中温室气体的存在， 很大程度上吸收了地面 向外发射的长波辐射， 使地-气系统温度升高的 现象，便是所谓的“温 室效应”目前“温室效应”的 主要含义是指由于人类 活动的影响使得大气中 温室气体浓度的增加， 从而造成全球变暖的现 象。The Greenhouse Effect The greenhouse effect is the rise in temperature that the Earth exp
6、eriences because certain gases in the atmosphere (water vapor, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane, for example) trap energy from the sun. Without these gases, heat would escape back into space and Earths average temperature would be about 60F colder. Because of how they warm our world, these
7、 gases are referred to as greenhouse gases Average composition of the atmosphere up to an altitude of 25 kmGas NameChemical FormulaPercent VolumeNitrogen(氮)N278.08%Oxygen(氧)O220.95%* Water(水汽)H2O0 to 4% Argon(氩)Ar0.93% * Carbon Dioxide(二氧化碳)CO20.0360% Neon(氖)Ne0.0018% Helium(氦)He0.0005% *Methane(甲烷)
8、CH40.00017% Hydrogen(氢)H20.00005% *Nitrous Oxide(一氧化氮)N2O0.00003% *Ozone(臭氧)O30.000004%* variable gasesGreenhouse Gases more hot days and heatwaves over nearly all land areas (very likely) Higher minimum temperatures; fewer cold days frost days and cold spells over nearly all land areas (very likely
9、) more intense precipitation events over many areas (very likely) increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors and associated risk of drought (likely) increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensity, mean and peak precipitation intensities (likely) Increased mortality in old
10、 people in urban areas Damage to crops Heat stress on livestock Extended range of pests and diseases Loss of some crop/fruit Land slides, mudslides, damage to property and increased insurance costs Reduced rangeland productivity, increased wildfires, decreased hydropower Damage to various ecological
11、 and socioeconomic systemsProjected changes during the 21st centuryExamples of impactsMore adverse than beneficial impacts on biological and socioeconomic systems are projectedIncreased water availability in some water-scarce regions, and decreased water availability in many water scarce regions2020
12、s 2050s2080sInitially increased agricultural productivity in some mid-latitude regions & reduction in the tropics and sub-tropics even with warming of a few degreesSignificant disruptions of ecosystems from disturbances such as fire, drought, pest infestation and invasion of speciesChanges in the pr
13、oductivity and composition of ecological systems, with coral reefs and boreal forests being most vulnerableBranching coralBrain coralcoral bleaching events are expected to increase Ecological systems have many interacting non-linear processes and are thus subject to abrupt changes and threshold effe
14、cts arising from relatively small changes in driving variables, such as climate. For example: Temperature increase beyond a threshold, which varies by crop and variety, can affect key development stages of some crops and result in severe losses in crop yields. Increased risk of floods, potentially d
15、isplacing tens of millions of people, due to sea level rise and heavy rainfall events, especially in Small Island States and low- lying deltaic areas. Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area with a sea level rise of one meter - very difficult to adapt due to lack of adaptive capac
16、ityprojectedpresentEffect on human healthReduced winter mortality in mid- and high- latitudes Increased incidence of heat stress mortality, and the number of people exposed to vector- borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue and water-borne diseases such as cholera, especially in the tropics and sub-tropics 以下是国内科学家的模拟结果全球模式模拟的A2情景下2011-2040年全球年平均温度变化 （单位：）（相对于1961-1990年）l大多数地区
