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1、Dividend Policy: Theory and Practice 股利理论与政策余明桂 教授 博士生导师武汉大学经济与管理学院会计系电话：027-68753121; 13277085145Email: Do you prefer dividend payout?n如果你是股东，持有某上市公司的股票，你 希望公司经常分配股利吗？（如果是，那么 ，你希望得到现金股利还是股票股利？）n如果你是公司的CEO，你愿意向股东分配股 利吗？（如果是，那么，你愿意分析现金股 利还是股票股利？）What is dividend policy?nThe decision to pay out earnin
2、gs v.s. to retain and reinvest them.nDividend policy includes:qHigh or low dividend payout?qStable or irregular dividends?qHow frequent to pay dividends?qCash dividend or Stock dividend?Dividend PolicynTheories of dividendsnDo dividends matter?nSignaling effectsnResidual modelnDividend reinvestment
3、plansnStock dividends and stock splitsnStock repurchasesnDividend practice in ChinaDifferent Types of DividendsnMany companies pay a regular cash dividend.qPublic companies often pay quarterly.qSometimes firms will throw in an extra cash dividend.qThe extreme case would be a liquidating dividend.nOf
4、ten companies will declare stock dividends.qNo cash leaves from the firm.qThe firm increases the number of shares outstanding.Do investors prefer high or low dividend payouts?nThree theories of dividend policy:qDividend irrelevance: Investors dont care about payout.qBird-in-the-hand: Investors prefe
5、r a high payout.qTax preference: Investors prefer a low payout.Dividend Irrelevance Theory (Miller and Modigliani, MM, 1961)nInvestors are indifferent between dividends and retention-generated capital gains. Investors can create their own dividend policy:qIf they want cash, they can sell stock.qIf t
6、hey dont want cash, they can use dividends to buy stock.nProposed by Modigliani and Miller(1961) and based on unrealistic assumptions, hence may not be true. Need an empirical test.nassumptions qperfect market: no taxes or brokerage costs; Stock price cant be manipulated by any investor.qAll investo
7、rs have the general beliefs in firm investment, income, and dividend.qInvestment decisions are made before dividend. nImplication: any payout is OK.Bird-in-the-Hand Theory (Gordon, 1961)nInvestors think that dividends are less risky than potential future capital gains, hence they like dividends.n在投资
8、者眼里，现金股利收入要比由留存收益带来的资本收益更为可 靠，故需要公司定期向股东支付较高的股利。n用留存收益再投资带给投资者的收益具有很大的不确定性，并且投资 风险将随着时间的推移而进一步增大，因此，投资者更喜欢现金股利 ，而不大喜欢将利润留给公司。公司分配的股利越多，公司的市场价 值也就越大。n“两鸟在林不如一鸟在手”.nImplication: set a high payout.Tax Preference TheorynRetained earnings lead to long-term capital gains, which are taxed at lower rates th
9、an dividends: 20% vs. up to 38.6%. Capital gains taxes are also deferred.nThis could cause investors to prefer firms with low payouts, i.e., a high payout results in a low P0.nImplication: Set a low payout.张裕A（000869）n2008.5.16: 实施10派11的分配方案。n现金股利按照10%的税率纳税，如果你持有 100手，你得到多少股利，纳税多少？Possible stock pri
10、ce effects403020100 50% 100% PayoutStock Price ($) Bird-in-the-HandIrrelevanceTax preferenceWhich theory is most correct?nEmpirical testing has not been able to determine which theory, if any, is correct.nThus, managers use judgment when setting policy.Do Dividends Matter?nYes! When we drop our “per
11、fect markets assumptions, dividends become important. A) Information Effects: Raising a firms dividend usually causes the stock price to rise and decreasing the dividend causes the stock price to fall. Dividend changes convey information to the market concerning the firms future prospects.Do Dividen
12、ds Matter?B) Clientele Effects(追随者效应): Different investor clienteles prefer different dividend payout levels.nSome firms, such as utilities, pay out over 70% of their earnings as dividends. These attract a clientele that prefers high dividends.nGrowth-oriented firms which pay low (or no) dividends a
13、ttract a clientele that prefers price appreciation to dividends.n机构投资者 V.S. 个人投资者n老年人 V.S. 年轻人n女性V.S.男性Do Dividends Matter?C) Agency Costs: Paying dividends may reduce agency costs between managers and shareholders.nPaying dividends reduces retained earnings and forces the firm to raise (slightly mo
14、re expensive) external equity financing.nRaising external equity subjects the firm to scrutiny of regulators and investors and therefore helps monitor the performance of managers.nDividends exist to overcome agency problems between managers and shareholders. Managers “commit” to paying out free cash
15、 flow as dividends.代理问题与股利政策：三一重工（ 600031）n2008.4.26：三一重工公布2007年年报，正式宣布 2008年8月底前全部退出二级市场股票投资。 n投资对象：中国平安，中国石油，海螺水泥，贵 州茅台，中国铝业，承德露露，湖南有色；另外 还持有1333.333万股长沙市商业银行股权与4000 万股岳阳市商业银行股权n评论：q股票投资存在较大风险，且与主业无关 q自由现金流应该以现金股利的方式退还给股东代理问题与股利政策：云南铜业 （000878）n新华网（2009.4.26）：2007年9月，云南省纪委根据云南省委巡视组 巡视工作中群众反映的情况，对云
16、铜集团涉嫌巨额国有资产流失的严 重违纪问题进行了初核。涉及金额高达20余亿元；案件涉及违纪违法 人员70余人。董事长邹韶禄：利用职务之便，在合作经营、原料供应 、工程承包、土地使用权转让、资金使用、干部任用等方面为他人谋 取利益，先后收受贿赂18笔，折算合计人民币1900余万元；副总经理 余卫平：利用职务之便，在土地使用权转让、预付货款、原料采购、 工程承包等方面为他人谋取利益，先后收受贿赂款18笔，折算合计人 民币2900余万元，挪用公款2660万元，贪污公款4125万元n中国新闻网（2009.4.27）：云南铜业(000878)集团前高管“腐败窝 案”再起波澜云铜股份前董秘兼副总经理、总会计师陈少飞挪用 巨额公款7.6亿元以及失职渎职，造成国有资产一亿多元被骗。该案 被调查人员称为“云铜炒股案”。并称“这是一起内外勾结的恶性案 件，骇人听闻”。代理问
