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1、Prospects and Challenges of Global and Chinas Food EconomyOutlinelGlobal food and agriculturelChinas food and agriculturelConcluding remarksUnited Nations projected: Global population will rise from 6.4 billion in 2005 to 9 billion in 2050, of which 2.3 billion (or 90% increase) will come from the d
2、eveloping countries.Per capita meat consumption kg per person per year, 2000, 2000-2050Source: IFPRI (2008)Cereal demand (million mt) by region 2000, 2025 and 2050Source: IFPRI (2008)New (non-traditional) demandlMultifunctional agriculturelBiofuelsWorld Production of BiofuelsSource: IEA analysis bas
3、ed on F.O.Lichts IEA World Energy Outlook 2006International Prices for Some Selected Commodities(price of January 2005=100, measured by US$)Sources of international food price changes during global food crisis in 2006-2008Source: Yang, Qiu, Huang, Rozelle (2008)Major driving sources of global food c
4、risis in 2006-2008:-Oil price-Biofuels-Speculation and export bansAfter mid-2008, all these disappeared due to global financial crisis!Source: Yang, Qiu, Huang, Rozelle (2008)Price indices (January 2005 = 100) of rice, wheat, maize, soybeans, and pork in international markets, January 2005 to Decemb
5、er 2009. Current and Projected Total Biofuels (bioethanol and biodiesel) Production in the Next 30 Years.Source: Msangi, et al., 2007?Biofuel era ?Businessas usualIt is possible that we are in the middle of a fundamental watershed perhaps the greatest since the “invention” of genetics but, while gen
6、etics allowed for the rapid rise in supply ( falling prices) this new technology affect the demand side (and since food becomes tied to energy if energy prices rise this means food prices will riseBiofuels is a fundamentally different technology it affects the demand sideReal cereal price index (All
7、 prices = 100 in 1960)Climate Changes: Climate Changes: TemperatureIn past 100 years: +0.74In next 100 years: +1.1 +6.4; China: +3.9 +6.0Precipitation rises likely in high latitudes and falls likely in subtropical regionsSource: IPCC 2007Change of precipitation will influence water supply and water
8、demandAgriculture is most vulnerable to climate change. Agriculture is most vulnerable to climate change. There are both direct and indirect impacts There are both direct and indirect impacts Most studies focus on Most studies focus on direct direct impacts assessmentimpacts assessmentClimate Change
9、Water (Runoff/supply of SWand GW/demand)Agriculture (Crop yield/disease/ areas/trade/price)Direct impactsDirect impactsLittle work deals with indirect impactsProspects: global new trendslRising demand:Food + Feed + Fiber + FuelslRising price:Fall riselRising uncertain:More risklGlobal challengeslMee
10、t food and fiber demand of 9 billion population;lMeet demand for biofuels: trade-off of 4 Fs;lWater scarcity, land and forestry deterioration;lClimate change;lFalling growth rate of agricultural productivitylAnnual growth of cereal yield in developing countriesAnnual growth of cereal yield in develo
11、ping countriesSource: World Development Report 2008Source: World Development Report 2008Prospects of Chinas food and agricultural sectorPer capita food consumption in 2004-2050: Crops (kg/person)Huang et al., 2008Per capita food consumption in 2004-2050: animal(kg/person)Huang et al., 2008Questionsl
12、Can China meet its growing demand in the future?lWhat are policy implicationsTo answer these questions, lets first look at what China has experienced in the pastPopulation in 1978-2008: Increased 38%, nearly 500 millions!Calories per capita per day (gram)Source: FAOSTATProtein per capita per day (gr
13、am)Fat per capita per day (gram)Grain and cotton productionGrain (million tons)Cotton (1000 tons)Production of oil and sugar cropsOil crops (1000 tons)Sugar crops (million tons)Vegetables and fruitsVegetable area (1000 ha)Fruit outputs (million tons)Shares of output values within agricultural sector
14、, 1980-2005, (%)Livestock and fishery have grown even fasterAgricultural export and import (billion US$) 1983-2009China has been a net food exporter in most years in the past 3 decadesRural poverty incidence in China, 1978- 2007Under official poverty lineUnder $1/day in PPP(Percent of Population)The
15、 fall in the poverty rates in China account for MOST of the entire worlds fall in poverty between 1985 and 2005 Question: What are major driving forces of Chinas agricultural growth and poverty alleviation in the past? Previous studies have shown that institutional reform, market reform AND technolo
16、gy change are three major driving forcesTotal Factor Productivity for rice, wheat and maize in China, 1979-94RiceWheatMaizeInstitutional change (HRS) was major source of TFP growth in 1979-84Source: Jin, Huang, Hu and Rozelle. 2002, AJAEBut after middle 1980s, technology has been major factor affecting productivity growthOutput, Input, and TFP annual growth rate and Decomposition of TFP Main Gr
