基于战略的报表分析新思维 第一讲 报表分析逻辑切入点黄世忠 教授厦门国家会计学院副院长：0592-2578003 13906016965电子邮件：hsz908@单位网址: DateDate1 1Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis研讨要点与目的• 阐述报表分析的逻辑切入点 – 基于M公司与GFC公司的案例分析 • 案例分析 – 德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的吗? – 中石油应否“海归”？ – 电信业“春天的故事”还能唱响多久? • 本讲旨在阐明报表分析的常见误区，把 握报表分析的逻辑体系DateDate2 2Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis从一道考倒全世界顶级MBA的难题看财务报表分析的逻辑切入点• 三大核心问题 – 问题1 • M公司与GFC公司孰优孰劣？孰强孰弱？ – 问题2 • M公司与GFC公司股票市值的反差原因何在？ – 问题3 • 如何评价M公司与GFC公司的业绩？DateDate3 3Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis雇员规模：M公司v.s GFC公司DateDate4 4Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis经营规模--TA: M公司 v.s GFC公司 DateDate5 5Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis经营规模--Sales: M公司 v.s GFC公司 DateDate6 6Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis现金流量(CFFOA)：M公司v.s GFC公司DateDate7 7Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis股票市值：M公司v.s GFC公司DateDate8 8Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis财务实力--NA：M公司v.s GFC公司DateDate9 9Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis经营绩效--NI：M公司v.s GFC公司DateDate1010Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis新经济与旧经济的强烈反差• 财务数据：GFC v.s M (2002)项 目名 称GFC公司 M公司 倍数G F C 合 计 M雇员人数 36.5 35.0 36.8 108.3 5.05 21.45 资产总额 3,718 2,952 2,192 8,862 67613.11销售收入 1,860 1,626 1,750 5,236 28418.44 现金流量 171 186 208 565 145 3.90 股票市值 200 196 313 709 2,541 0.28股东权益 68 56 408 532 540 0.99 净利润 17 -10 55 62 78 0.79 ROE 25% -18% 13% 12% 14% 0.86DateDate1111Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis新经济与旧经济的强烈反差• 财务数据：GFC v.s M (2003)项 目名 称GFC公司 M公司 倍数G F C 合 计 M雇员人数 32.3 32.8 38.4 103.5 5.7 18.2资产总额 4,485 3,046 2,246 9,777 79612.3销售收入 1,855 1,642 1,719 5,216 32216.2 现金流量 76 202 208 486 158 3.1 股票市值 218 259 453 930 2,915 0.32股东权益 252 117 434 803 610 1.32 净利润 38 4.9 5.6 48.5 99.9 0.49 ROE 15% 4% 1.3% 6% 16% 0.38DateDate1212Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis收入质量(Quality of Revenue)DateDate1313Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis收入质量(Quality of Revenue)DateDate1414Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis利润质量(Quality of Profit) GM: -89; 995;-146; Ford: -1057; -1153; -8857DateDate1515Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis利润质量(Quality of Profit)DateDate1616Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis毛利率(Gross Profit Margin) (2003)DateDate1717Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis资产质量(Quality of Assets) (2002)项 目名 称G F C M余 额 % 余 额 % 余 额% 余 额 %现金及等价物 214 5.8 29710.1 145 6.6 38757.2应收款项 1,416 38.1 1,05035.6 81537.2 51 7.5存货 100 2.7 70 2.4 183 8.3 7 1.0长期投资 57315.4 43314.7 109 5.0 14221.0 固定资产 358 9.6 364 12.3 75534.4 23 3.4GW PE: 8.47DateDate2929Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis中石油业绩因何突出？ －Operating Performance Perspective雇员人数: 24.73万人，雇员薪金成本223.1，其中养老金24.7DateDate3030Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis中石油业绩因何突出？ －Operating Performance PerspectiveDateDate3131Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis中石油业绩因何突出？ --Financial Position Perspective2004年末, 油气资产2358, 占FA50.3%, 机器设备1373, 占FA29.3%DateDate3232Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis中石油业绩因何突出？ ---Financial Position PerspectiveDateDate3333Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis中石油业绩因何突出？ --Cash Flow PerspectiveDateDate3434Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis中石油业绩因何突出？ --Cash Flow PerspectiveDateDate3535Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement Analysis中石油业绩因何突出？ ---管理层自白中国石油 2004年度业绩报告DateDate3636Logics of Financial Statement AnalysisLogics of Financial Statement AnalysisPetroChina v.s ExxonMobil项 目 名 称 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004营业营业收入 －PC（亿元） －EM（亿美元）2,4532,2762,4132,0872,4442,0093,0382,3713,8862,913 净净利润润 －PC（亿元） －EM（亿美元）5461774551534691156962151,029253 销销售利润润率 －PC －EM22.3％7.8％ 15.7％7.3％14.8％5.7％19.5％9.1％ 24.2％8.7％ 资产资产周转转率 －PC －EM0.57 1.53 0.521.460.511.32 0.571.36 0.641.49 净资产净资产。