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1、INDIAS FUTURE29 January 2007R B Roy Choudhury Memorial lecture MumbaiEven though the world has just discovered it, the India growth story is not new. It has been going on for 25 years old What is the India story?1) Rising GDP growth % average annual GDP growth1900 1950 1.0 1950 1980 3.51980 2002 6.0
2、 2002 2006 8.0Sources: 1900-1990: Angus Maddison (1995), Monitoring the World Economy, 1990-2000:Census of India (2001), 2000-2005 Finance Ministry India Story 2) Population growth is slowing % average annual growth1901 1950 1.01951 1980 2.21981 1990 2.11991 2000 1.82001 2010 1.5Sources: 1900-1990:
3、Angus Maddison (1995), Monitoring the World Economy, 1990-2000:Census of India (2001) India Story %1950 17 1990 522000 652010 (proj) 80 Source: Census of India (2001)3. Literacy is risingIndia Story % MillionPeople1980 8 652000 22 2202010 (proj) 32 368 Source: The Consuming Class, National Council o
4、f Applied Economic Research, 2002 4. Middle class is exploding India Story 1980 46% 2000 26%2010 (proj)16%1% of the people have been crossing poverty line each year for 20 years. Equals 200 million. 5. Poverty is decliningIndia Story 6. Productivity is rising India Story 30% to 40% of GDP growth is
5、due to rising productivity(US$ ppp)1980 1178 2000 3051Source: World Bank7. Per capita income gainsIndia Story 8. India is now the 4th largest economy India Story And it will cross Japan between 2012 and 2014 to become the 3rd largestTHE INDIA MODEL IS UNIQUEDRIVERS OF GROWTHIndia East and S.E. AsiaD
6、omestic ExportsDRIVERS OF GROWTHIndia East and S.E. AsiaDomestic ExportsServices ManufacturingDRIVERS OF GROWTHIndia East and S.E. AsiaDomestic ExportsServices ManufacturingConsumption InvestmentDRIVERS OF GROWTHIndia East and S.E. AsiaDomestic ExportsServices ManufacturingConsumption InvestmentHigh
7、 tech, capital Low tech, labourintensive industry intensive industryIMPLICATIONS OF INDIA MODEL Domestic led Insulation from global downturns Less volatilityIMPLICATION OF INDIA MODEL Services led Have we skipped the industrial revolution? How do we take people from farms to cities?IMPLICATION OF IN
8、DIA MODEL Consumption ledPeople friendly: Consumption as % of GDPIndia 64Europe 58China 42 Less inequality GINI INDEXIndia 33U.S 41China 45Brazil 59 The world needs another big consuming economy after the U.S.Reasons for SuccessIndias success is market led whereas Chinas is state induced. The entrep
9、reneur is at centre of the Indian modelRise of globally competitive Indian companies:Reliance, Jet Airways, Infosys, Wipro,Ranbaxy, Bharat Forge, Tata Motors,TCS, Bharati, ICICI and HDFC BanksIndia has a vibrant private space 100 Indian Companies have marketcap of US$ 1 billion India has a vibrant p
10、rivate space 100 Indian Companies have marketcap of US$ 1 billion 1000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investmentIndia has a vibrant private space 100 Indian Companies have marketcap of US$ 1 billion 1000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment 125 Fortun
11、e 500 companies have R&D bases in IndiaIndia has a vibrant private space 100 Indian Companies have marketcap of US$ 1 billion 1000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment 125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India 390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software deve
12、lopment to India.India has a vibrant private space 100 Indian Companies have marketcap of US$ 1 billion 1000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment 125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India 390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software development to India.100 I
13、ndian Companies have marketcap of US$ 1 billion 1000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment 125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India 390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software development to India.80% credit goes to private sector (vs10% in China)But public space is a problem Although we have a:+ Dynamic democracy with honest electionsPublic space is a problem Although we have a:+ Dynamic democracy + Free, lively media and pressPublic space is a problem + Dynamic democracy with + Free
