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1、Quantitative Methods For Decision Makers Third EditionMik Wisniewski Senior Research Fellow, Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde Business SchoolQuantitative Methods For Decision Makers 3rd EditionChapter 1INTRODUCTION1 INTRODUCTIONnTHE USE OF QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES BY BUSINE
2、SSnTHE ROLE OF QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES IN BUSINESSnMODELS IN QUANTITATIVE DECISION MAKINGnUSE OF COMPUTERSnUSING THE TEXTTHE USE OF QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES BY BUSINESSnThis text introduces the major mathematical and statistical techniques used to help decision making by managers of all types of busi
3、ness organisations: large and small, private sector, public sector, profit-oriented, not-for-profit, manufacturing, or service sector.THE ROLE OF QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES IN BUSINESSnThe manager and the decision-making environmentIncreasing competitionMore complexbusiness environmentMore complex busi
4、ness structureChangingmarketsTHE MANAGERComplex information needs and systemsChanging customer requirements/ expectationsLarger error costsIncreased uncertaintyReduced reaction timesTHE ROLE OF QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES IN BUSINESSnThe decision-making processBusiness problemsQuantitative analysisQuali
5、tative analysisProblem analysisDecisionMODELS IN QUANTITATIVE DECISION MAKINGnThroughout the text we shall be introducing what known as models to help develop quantitative techniques in a business context.nModels come in a variety of forms in business.nModels attempt to represent a situation in a si
6、mplified form.USE OF COMPUTERSnStatistics has spurred the use of information technology and in turn such technology spurred the wider use of statistics during the past century.nStatistical packages are standardized sets of programs that help managers use a wide range of statistical techniques by aut
7、omating the data processing and calculations these techniques require.nExcel SPSS SAS S-PLUS MinitabDocumented examplesnAn electricity company in the USA developed a computer-based planning system to help improve forecasts of demand. The result was a reduction of some US $140 million in fuel costs o
8、ver a 7-year period.Documented examplesnThe UK Royal Air Force developed a simulation model to quantify the number of battle damage repair teams likely to be required to maintain aircraft capabilities in the event of hostilities.Documented examplesnIn Canada the technique of linear programming was a
9、pplied to the use of ambulances in health care and to the related shift systems. This generated annual savings of around CN$ 250 000.Documented examplesnA farming cooperative in Holland implemented an interactive optimisation system to help plan bulk deliveries of its sugar beet crop with a resultin
10、g reduction of 7% in its operating costs. Documented examplesnA New Zealand utility company applied quantitative techniques to its car pooling procedures with the result that the number of vehicles required was reduced by 35%, which generated annual savings of NZ $55000.Documented examplesnAmerican
11、Airlines has developed a number of quantitative models in relation to its airline seat reservation systems. The models are estimated to contribute around US $500 million per year to the companys revenue.Documented examplesnHewlett-Packard used quantitative techniques to forecast capacity and to dete
12、rmine locations of stocks and supplies in the context of one of its computer printers. As a result, productivity increased by 50% and incremental revenues of US $280 million in sales were generated.Documented examplesnKFC reduced waiting times for customers by half and improved productivity , sales
13、and profit through the application of quality management techniques.Documented examplesnDEC saved an estimated US $100 million by applying linear programming to its global manufacturing and distribution strategy.Documented examplesnTaco Bell, a chain of popular restaurants ,used forecasting to help it predict arrivals of customers through the day and developed a simulation model for planning its personnel requirements . The company saved an estimated US $53 million in labour costs in one year alone.
