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1、Traders Expectations in Asset Markets: Experimental Evidence By Ernan Haruvy, Yaronl Aahav, And Charles N . Nousair 复旦大学10经济史硕士生 李雪山The Outline of the paper. Hypotheses . Experimental Design and Procedures . Results . Conclusions Hypothesis 1 The price expectations are a function of price trends wit
2、hin the current and prior markets. 2 The price expectations are unbiased predictors of future price movement and of the time at which price peaks occur. 3 Information on trader expectations provides an observer with additional power to predict price movements and market peaks.Experimental Design and
3、 Procedures 4 markets 6 sessions 15 periods in each market of each session 53 people(9581) Initial endowment of cash (francs)and units of asset Monetary incentives for accurate pridicitons Buy and sell order Experimental Design and Procedures0 2 3 3.5 5 QP 5 4.5 4 DSBuy order (P,Q)Sell order (P,Q)A(
4、4,3)(4,2)B(5,2)(5,3)115115. Results: How do market data influence beliefs?Table1. Stated beliefs as a function of markettrend and periodtrend. Results:How do market data influence beliefs?. Results: Are beliefs unbiased predictors of future market activity?Table 2. Relations between predicted and ac
5、tual price change between periods t-1 and t. Results: Can beliefs be used to improve market predictions?n is the number of traders who are “short-term pessimist”Table 3. The effect of average pessimism, the deviation from fundamental values, and current values and current price trend on price changes Conclusions1.An adaptive expectationsinitially expect a constant prices over time;later reflect a continuation of past trends;peaks occur earlier than traders predict 2.The information provides additional power to predict future prices
