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1、Restricted Reforming the international monetary system in the 1970s and 2000s: would an SDR substitution account have worked?Presentation by Robert N McCauley*Senior Adviser, Monetary and Economic DepartmentTo the joint Asian Development Bank/Centre for International Governance Innovation/Hong Kong
2、Institute of Monetary Research conference on “The BRICS over of US Treas held by offs.lSafe assets shrinking with downgrades but expanding w deficits and expansion of agency debtlSo those seeking more pluralism may look to substitution-type remedies that lower dollar share without increasing global
3、liquidity.6Restricted 7Downgrades take toll on government bond marketsInternational monetary reformlRecurring doubts about ability of US dollar to continue to serve as the primary global reserve currency Exorbitant privilege: unbalanced adjustment Relative size of US economy declining Dollar exchang
4、e rate weakening Size of US external liabilities rising Vulnerability to tipping point: disruptive transition to multipolar or other dominant assetl1960s, 1970s, 2000s: revival of old proposals: Kenen (2010), Bergsten (2007), Camdessus (2009), Landau (2009), Palais Royale Initiative (2011), Angloni
5、et al (2011), Farhi et al (2011)8Reform plansl1961-67: Special Drawing Right (SDR) Composite valuation, right to borrow convertible currencies Triumph of consensus over clarity Not a big reserve asset (2.6% global reserves) - Strictly official sphere of exchange - Unit of account, store of value, no
6、t a means of exchangelHow to make SDR more “useful” to allow it to take on the properties needed to be a reserve assetlNew push: SDR “serves as the light in the tunnel for the reform of the international monetary system”: Zhou (2009)9Substitution Account 1974l1973-74: Part of C20 proposalslExchange
7、USD for SDR through a Substitution Account (at IMF)US worried about return paid on dollars in the AccountOthers want US to pay off its liabilitieslWilliam Dale (US): “Unless the proponents of the various schemes had some practical way of dealing with the problem of financial obligation on the part o
8、f the reserve centers i.e. the United States, little progress could be made”lOvertaken by oil crisis10Substitution Account 1978lIMF MD Witteveen proposes rich countries “deposit” dollars equivalent to a fresh allocation of SDR into an Account at the IMF (dollars to be invested in US Treasury coupon
9、securities) Prevent SDR allocation from increasing international liquidity in inflationary environment Begin to replace dollar reserves with SDR reserveslRejected by United States and Europe US would have to borrow dollars to deposit Could weaken confidence in dollar Some view as too lenient on US w
10、ant US to pay off liabilities Too small to make a difference11Lessons and unresolved issues of early versionslUS support crucial to any schemes success, but US Treasury is ambivalent over setting up a reserve rival to the US dollar.lThe appropriate return on SDR/USD liabilities/assets in the Account
11、?lThe need for the US to take on a substantial share of any burden of keeping a schemes assets as large as its liabilities.lThe desire of the Europeans that the United States amortise its obligations, making the international monetary system symmetric.lGovernance of IMF: since less developed countri
12、es seek an important voice in negotiations, need to look beyond G10 if IMF to be involved12Substitution Account MD de Larosiere proposal 1978-80lCautious response, no drive from Ministers March 1979lUS Treas Solomon: enhance use of SDR w/o hurting $ confidencelG5 deliberations (UK, DE, FR, US, JP) A
13、pril-August 1979 Legal obstacles, burden of adjustment and exchange risk June 1979 Financial Secretary Nigel Lawson: “we should not waste valuable manpower on matters such as the IMF substitution account. Over the years I can recall no aspect of the financial scene where so much high-powered effort
14、has been expended to so little return”lAugust 1979: IMF Exec Bd prolonged wrangling gives no positive advice to MinisterslOctober 1979: Ministers meeting Belgrade: $ crisis, no progresslApril 1980: Abandoned13Obstacles by 1980lPolitical needs to pass national legislatureslNo mechanism to ensure US p
15、ays off its liabilities (shift from central banks to IMF)lRich countries would benefit most (constrains use of IMF resources)lEnsuring solvency How set returns on SDR liabilities and $ assets Burden sharing (US vs others) Terms of liquidation IMF simulations suggest possibility of substantial losses
16、 (up to 35% of capital)14IssueslOpen economy Fisher hypothesis that higher yields offset depreciation did not hold: USD depreciation exceeds modest yield premium over SDR rateslInterest payable options: Treasury bill rate 20 year Treasury bond ratelWhitelaw: “Ultimately, the substitution account could be effectively guaranteed only if the US Government followed economic policies that tended to maintain the value of the dol
