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1、Research on the nonlinear concentration model of scattering input and the method of real-time flood forecast with the shape restriction(State key laboratory of water resource and hydropower engineering science,(State key laboratory of water resource and hydropower engineering science,WuhanWuhan Univ
2、ersity, P.R. China) University, P.R. China)Abstract The topography of the basin and the space-time changes of the rainfall have important effects on the basin concentration. So, based on the topic double pinnate drainage of the Bailianhe basin, the nonlinear concentration model of scattering input w
3、hich establishes on the reservoirs mode of series-parallel connection are presented with the shape restriction. By means of the variable gain factor recursive least- square method, the forecasting model is real-timely corrected. Using them to forecast the floods of Bailianhe basin, it shows that the
4、 models and method are effective in practice, so it can be a feasible flood forecast method for the basin with special topography. Geographical characteristics, such as river system shape, the topography and river way character, and the distribution of precipitation have great effects on the concent
5、ration procedure of runoff in sub regions of a basin . Especially in the typical narrow and long of feather shape river system of basin like Bailianhe reservoir basin, the effect become more obviously. The nonlinear concentration model of scattering input in double pinnate basin system is based on t
6、he system theory, and it divides basin into different sub basin according the basin landform and river characteristic. The concentration procedure of every sub basin is calculated by the real-time intension of precipitation instantaneous unit lines which describes the nonlinear reservoir-adjusting m
7、odel. 形状约束条件下的流域分散入流非线性汇流模型与实时预报方法研究白莲河水库流域简介The basin of Bailianhe reservoir lies in the middle reach of Xishui river of Hubei Province eastern, it control 1797 square kilometers areas, its total capacity of reservoir is 1228 million cube kilometers. In the basin north and south is long, the west a
8、nd east is narrow, and the average width is 15.7 kilometers. There are two rivers are gathered together in the basin, it is high in the Northeast, The southwest is low. It is distributed in double pinnate sharp. brief introduction about the basin of brief introduction about the basin of BailianheBai
9、lianhe reservoir reservoir双羽形水系分散入流非线性汇流模型 The course of basin concentration is constituted by surface gathered and ground water concentration. The basin surface converge procedure are united between every sub basin course through the series or parallel connection. The ground water converge course s
10、imulates by the whole basin, and it simulates separately through linear reservoirs model. The basin converge model looks on the rain of every region calculated by the basin produce flow model as the input of concentrate system. According to the relationship between every region, under the shape rest
11、riction that must obeyed the flow course of exporting the place to of basin appears finally.The nonlinear concentration model of scattering input in double pinnate drainage双 羽 形 水 系 分 散 入 流 非 线 性 汇 流 模 型白莲河水库流域分块情况According to the geographical sharp characteristic of the reservoir basin, the reservo
12、ir basin is divided into five partitions. and the topological relation between each region is shown as figure2. 分块 4分块 2分块 3分块 5分块 1串连串连并 连 串 连串 连The units in the basin of Bailianhe reservoir 双 羽 形 水 系 分 散 入 流 非 线 性 汇 流 模 型形状约束条件下的流域分散形状约束条件下的流域分散 入流非线性汇流模型入流非线性汇流模型 流域分散入流非线性汇流模型 形状约束条件The nonlinear
13、 concentration model of scattering input with the shape restriction 流域分散入流非线性汇流模型 形 状 约 束 条 件 下 的 流 域 分 散 入 流 非 线 性 汇 流 模 型vThe basins concentrate procedure is constituted by surface flow; subsurface flow and ground water. v The concentration formula is：vFurther more if we consider the basin geograp
14、hical characteristic influence to the basin concentration, we can divide the whole basin into m pieces of sub basins with basin geographical characteristic. Each sub basin concentration is simulated by formula1.v壤中流和地下径流对洪水过程的贡献相对较小，采取全流域整体模拟，分别由线 性水库调蓄计算模型模拟。 v The total flow can be calculated by t
15、he following formula： The nonlinear concentration model of scattering input 形 状 约 束 条 件 下 的 流 域 分 散 入 流 非 线 性 汇 流 模 型形状约束条件形状约束条件vAccording to each sub area real geographical situation, the surface flow simulation adopt parallel connect, or series contact, or bunch mix connect, it consists the basin
16、 surface flow procedure. The changing units lines shape coefficient (n, c) in each sub basin can be controlled by restrain condition. When we calculate the concentrate model, the parameter (n, c) reflect the adjust function not only by its own precipitation but also the river between the sub basin export to the basin export. In order to guarantee that the parameter value of nuclear function in each sub basin, it is impor
