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1、南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文i摘 要自 1998 年我国取消福利分房以来，城市商品住宅投资规模迅速扩大，商品住宅销售面积逐年增加，与此同时城市商品住宅价格也迅速增长，有的城市甚至以每年 20%的速度上涨，引起了社会各界的高度重视。政府管理部门及时采取相应政策措施平抑房价和防范、化解房价风险，但市场反应并没有达到明显的预期效果。因此，在我国的商品住宅市场研究中，十分需要全面分析商品住宅价格各影响因素之间的相互关系，构建可以进行政策分析的城市商品住宅价格仿真模型。本论文运用系统动力学方法对城市商品住宅价格进行系统仿真研究。首先，在文献研究的基础上，从价格构成、供求关系、宏观经济与政策等方面寻求影响
2、商品住宅价格的主要因素，并分析了南京市商品住宅市场的现状，然后根据南京市商品住宅市场的历史数据分析拟合各因素之间的相互关系，将主要的关系做出定量描述，建立系统动力学仿真模型；接着对南京市商品住宅价格进行计算机仿真及预测并检验其有效性；最后根据模型结构，从宏观管理的角度选取政策调控指标，做政策模拟实验，并根据实验结果，提出宏观调控建议，以便为正确把握商品住宅价格、规范城市商品住宅市场提供参考依据。关键词：商品住宅价格，系统动力学，系统仿真，房地产南京市商品住宅价格系统动力学模型仿真研究iiABSTRUCTThe house market of china has experienced grea
3、t changes since its cancellationof the welfare housing policy in 1998, with an overall increase in urban commercialresidential house investment, sales, as well as the price of which in some cities, theaccelerating speed amounts to 20 percent annually. The changes have receivedenough attention from t
4、he society. The government administrative department hasissued a series of measure to control the upward price of urban commercial residentialhouse and prevent the risk of it, but the market reaction has not been up to the resettarget. And therefore it has pressed an urgent need for the establishmen
5、t of asimulation model of the price of urban commercial residential house which helps toanalyze house policies based on a comprehensive study of the relations between theinfluential factors of the price of commercial residential house.This paper uses system dynamics method for the research of the pr
6、ice ofcommercial residential house. Firstly, based on the research of the status quo of thecommercial residential house market of Nanjing and the qualitatively analysis of theimportant influential factor of the price of commercial residential house from theaspects of price constitution, house demand
7、, house supply, macro economy and policy,through the historical data of the commercial residential house market of Nanjing, theinterrelations of these factors are simulated. Then establish the systematic dynamicsmodel, and run the model by the software and tests the validity by comparing with theact
8、ual status. The following part predicts the future market of Nanjing, and accordingto the structure of the model and from the aspect of macro management, the paperselects several policy index, then carries on the simulation experiments with theadjustments of policy index. Lastly, according to the re
9、sult of policy simulationexperiments, this paper proposes macro suggestions about adjustments and controls,in the hope of offering references for holding the price of commercial residentialhouse correctly and standardizing the urban market of commercial residential house.Key words: Price of commerci
10、al residential house, System Dynamics, SystemSimulation, Real Estate南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文vii图清单图 1.1研究思路.12图 3.1南京市房地产开发土地供应模式.26图 3.2近年来南京市房地产及商品住宅开发投资额对比图.27图 3.3近年来南京市商品住宅竣工面积情况.28图 3.4南京市人均可支配收入.31图 3.5南京市房价收入比走势图.33图 4.1 因果反馈图.38图 4.2 流图模型.39图 4.3 Vensim软件工作程序示意图.40图 4.4商品住宅价格系统因果反馈图.41图 4.5土地供应模块.43图 4.6住宅供给模块.43图 4.7住宅价格模块.44图 4.8商品住宅价格系统流图.45图 4.9住宅需求仿真预测结果.51图 4.10住宅供给仿真预测结果.52图 4.11 供求比仿真预测结果.53图 4.12商品住宅价格仿真预测结果.53图 4.13房价收入比仿真预测结果.54南京市商品住宅价格系统动力学模型仿真研究viii表清单表 1.1南京市商品住宅投资、销售统计表.2 表 3.1南京市历年土地供应情况表.26 表 3.2南京市历年商品住宅销售情况.28 表 3.3南京市人口变动情况.30 表 3.4 19982005年南京市房价收入比.
