《欧洲可再生能源路线图》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《欧洲可再生能源路线图（38页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、report The Energy Revolution for the EU 28roadmap for europeTOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE AND INDEPENDENT ENERGY SUPPLY“will we look into the eyes of our children and confessthat we had the opportunity, but lacked the courage? that we had the technology, but lacked the vision?”introduction4executive summary
2、5fossil fuel resource analysis81. 1gas9 1.1.1qualitative analysis of trends and projections9 1.1.2identification of potential regional short falls and bottlenecks10 1.1.3analysis of regional oversupply risks towards 202011 1.1.4gas production in the EU between 1990 and 2010 and a projection until 20
3、35011 1. 2oil11 1.2.1qualitative analysis of trends and projections11 1.2.2identification of potential regional short falls and bottlenecks11 1.2.3analysis of regional oversupply risks towards 202012 1.2.4oil production in the EU between 1990 and 2010 and a projection until 2035012 1. 3hard coal12 1
4、.3.1qualitative analysis of trends and projections12 1.3.2identification of potential regional short falls and bottlenecks13 1.3.3coal production in the EU between 1990 and 2010 and a projection until 205013 1. 4uranium13 1. 5current supply and demand in europe14 1.5.1EU primary energy production14
5、1.5.3imports and energy deficit of the EU14 1.5.3great differences among member states14the energy revolution: the EU energy independence pathway for europe152. 1assumptions and methodology16 2.1.1assumptions for the cmmission scenario ( COM) used as a reference scenario16 2.1.2assumptions for the e
6、nergy r evolution scenario 16 2.1.3oil and gas price projections18 2. 2key results of the energy revolution EU energy independence pathway19 2.2.1EU28: energy demand by sector19 2.2.2EU28: electricity generation20 2.2.3EU28: future costs of electricity generation21 2.2.4EU28: future investments21 2.
7、2.5EU28: heat supply22 2.2.6EU28: transport23 2.2.7EU28: primary energy consumption24 2.2.8EU28: development of CO2emissions24fossil fuel requirements for the EU253. 1fossil fuel balance: scenario comparison26 3. 2fossil fuel balances by fuel27 3.2.1oil27 3.2.2gas27 3.2.3coal28 3. 3fossil fuel costs
8、 versus investment in new renewable power technologies28EU policy recommendations30glossary or too close to densely populated areas which immediately has the risk of strong opposition, as seen in New York, South Africa, the UK, the Netherlands, France, Germany, Austria and Bulgaria.Finally it is oft
9、en stated that by far the largest undeveloped conventional gas reserves are in Iran and in Qatar. Their development and liquefaction will result in ample supply for decades. But a closer analysis shows even here huge question marks arise. Most importantly is the often ignored fact that the huge rese
10、rves of both countries almost completely depend on one offshore field in the Arab gulf crossing the border between the two countries. The southern part in Qatar is called the North Field; the northern part in Iran is called South Pars. The size of this 6,000 km2field as the worlds largest gas field
11、was determined in the 1970s after its discovery by only a few exploration wells. Some years ago gas companies drilled a dry hole in an area which caste huge doubts on the reserve estimate which are still used today.1. 1. 2 identification of potential regional shortfalls and bottlenecksThe gas sector
12、 is very different to the oil sector as regional markets developed where consumer and producer regions were connected by pipelines. Only a few percent of world gas production is transported in liquefied form to intercontinental destinations.Mature areas with long lasting relations are the USA with c
13、onnections to Canada and Mexico, Europe with connections to North Africa and Russia, and predominantly China. Korea and Japan are completely isolated. Their import needs are completely satisfied by LNG. Based on these structures, regional bottlenecks and inequalities between different markets are mo
14、re likely to occur than with oil.The USA is by far the largest consumer in North America and already receives imports from Canada to satisfy its needs. Based on experienced shortfalls in the early 2000s and expected rising requirements many new LNG import facilities have been planned, some of them a
15、lready realized. Total US-regasification-capacitiy rose from 20 billion Nm/year in the year 2000 to 160 billion Nm/year in 2010. However three developments inverted the situation making USA for some time an exporter of LNG at very low level (1 billion Nm/yr). With regards to Europe, we believe that
16、the decline of domestic production will set the frame for rising import needs. According to LBST, 200-300 billion cubic-meters per year m/yr must be imported additionally until 2030 in order to match an even flat demand. Shale gas developments inside Europe will only have a marginal influence on these developments. Probably also Russia will not be able to supply these quantities. Moreover, LBST believes that Russian exports to Europe will stay static and start to
