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1、 ?000415? ? ? ? ? ? 8.33 ?/? ? ? 2016-2018 ? EPS ? 0.28/0.36/0.43 ? 2016 ? 1.8 ? PB? 8.33 ? ? ? Seaco SRL?Cronos ? HKAC?Avalon? ?2015 ? ? 349 ? 16%? ? 400 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 2015 ? 160 ? ? ? 2015 ? ? 28.4 ? 20%? 3.57%? ? 3 ?4200 ? ? 12% ?Sinolending 6.18%? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E ?
2、6,852 9,659 12,797 18,441 26,656 (+/-)% 7% 41% 32% 44% 45% ?EBIT? 2,444 3,799 5,476 6,600 7,651 (+/-)% -3% 55% 44% 21% 16% ? 913 1,304 1,731 2,246 2,688 (+/-)% -13% 43% 33% 30% 20% ?0.15 0.21 0.28 0.36 0.43 ? 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ? 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E ?(%) 35.7% 39.3% 42.8% 35.8%28.7%
3、?(%) 9.0% 4.8% 6.0% 7.3% 8.0% ?(%) 6.6% 5.3% 6.8% 6.8% 6.9% EV/EBITDA 13.8 16.7 12.3 10.8 9.6 ? 46.2 32.3 24.4 18.8 15.7 ? (%) 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ?2016.06.17 ? ? ? ?000415? ? ? ? ? 8.33 ? 6.82 2016.06.17 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?%? -46%-37%-28%-18%-9%0%1m3m12m52 ? 6.29-13.58 ? 42,178 ? ? 2014A 20
4、15A 2016E 2017E 2018E ? 6,852 9,659 12,797 18,441 26,656 ? 3,671 4,837 5,966 9,889 16,183 ? 60 83 110 158 229 ? 59 59 78 112 162 ? 618 881 1,167 1,682 2,431 EBIT 2,444 3,799 5,476 6,600 7,651 ? 2 35 0 0 0 ? 22 36 36 36 36 ? 992 1,666 2,984 3,282 3,622 ? 1,234 1,842 2,528 3,355 4,064 ? 222 308 408 53
5、0 634 ? 265 484 642 833 997 ? 913 1,304 1,731 2,246 2,688 ? ? ? 4,726 28,239 1,126 1,549 -1,246 ? 7,866 11,575 0 0 0 ? 24,969 32,768 32,768 32,768 32,768 ? 27,316 47,866 65,043 81,027 95,817 ? 2,107 9,433 6,618 7,217 7,816 ? 67,721 131,160 106,905 124,944 138,172 ? 20,133 32,893 10,206 25,165 34,706
6、 ? 34,989 66,413 62,471 62,473 62,476 ? 10,118 27,139 28,657 30,903 33,590 ?(IC) 31,393 60,741 68,655 83,163 95,098 ? NOPLAT 2,057 3,241 4,672 5,631 6,527 ? 1,577 2,365 3,374 4,568 5,762 ? -3,244 -706 728 2,075 3,454 ? -18,417 -32,732 -17,482 -20,897 -20,897 ? -18,027 -27,831 -8,707 -8,623 -5,154 ?
7、4,735 7,014 18,641 12,740 16,264 ? -12,598 -29,219 -17,446 -20,861 -20,861 ? 8,112 44,724 -28,308 8,544 1,802 ? 248 22,519 -27,112 423 -2,795 ? ? ? 7.5% 41.0% 32.5% 44.1% 44.5% EBIT ? -3.0% 55.4% 44.1% 20.5% 15.9% ? -13.2% 42.8% 32.7% 29.7% 19.7% ? ? 46.4% 49.9% 53.4% 46.4% 39.3% EBIT ? 35.7% 39.3%
8、42.8% 35.8% 28.7% ? 13.3% 13.5% 13.5% 12.2% 10.1% ? ?(ROE) 9.0% 4.8% 6.0% 7.3% 8.0% ?(ROA) 1.3% 1.0% 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% ?(ROIC) 6.6% 5.3% 6.8% 6.8% 6.9% ? ? 0 0 0 0 0 ? 32 34 34 34 34 ? 3325 3758 3395 2294 1801 ? 5.18 5.38 10.77 5.67 6.05 ?/? 269% 339% 137% 113% 78% ? ? 81.4% 75.7% 68.0% 70.1% 70.3% ? 4
9、28.3% 224.6% 233.4% 253.4% 257.7% ? PE 46.2 32.3 24.4 18.8 15.7 PB 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 EV/EBITDA 13.8 16.7 12.3 10.8 9.6 P/S 1.8 4.4 3.3 2.3 1.6 ? 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ?-53%-43%-32%-21%-11%0%2015/6 2015/9 2015/12 2016/3-19%-15%-11%-7%-4%0%? ?-62%-26%9%45%80%116%14A15A16E17E18E? ?0%2%4%5%7%9%14A15A16E17E18E? ?0173123462551937692498656114A15A16E17E18E0%86%171%257%343%428%? ? 1. ? .4 2. ? .
