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1、The Art ofContrarianTradingHow to Profit from Crowd Behavior in the Financial MarketsContentsPrefacexiCHAPTER 1Can You Beat the Market?1The Speculators Edge1Lending a Helping Hand to Investors2Uncovering Market Mistakes4Looking at the Evidence5Market Timing6Catch-227CHAPTER 2Market Mistakes9Efficien
2、t Markets9Roller Coasters and Stock Markets10Do Stock Prices Fluctuate Too Much?12A Look at Behavioral Finance14Behavioral Finance and Exploitable Market Mistakes16No Free Lunch Redux17CHAPTER 3The Edge19A Theory of Market Mistakes19To Get Along, Go Along21Go Along and Create a Mistake22The Social C
3、alculus of Crowds25The Vision of a Contrarian Trader27vviCONTENTSCHAPTER 4The Wisdom and Follies of Crowds31Can a Crowd Be Wiser Than Its Members?31The Need for Collective Wisdom32Independent Decisions in the Financial Markets34Forecasting Market Psychology36Information Cascades into the Whirlpool o
4、f Speculation38CHAPTER 5The Life Cycle and Psychology of an Investment Crowd43Prologue43The Cycle of Birth and Death44The Stock Market Bubble of 1994200046Its Different This Time: The New Information Economy48Shattered Dreams: The Bear Crowd of 2001200249Popular Instincts and the Search for Certaint
5、y51The Pied Pipers of Investment Crowds54The Mental Unity of Investment Crowds55Suggestibility, Volatility, and Disintegration59CHAPTER 6The Historical Context for Market Mistakes61Mature Investment Themes and Market Crowds61Mistakes versus Fair Value62Market Data Sources63The Deadly Mistake64When I
6、s the Stock Market (Extremely) Overvalued?65When Is the Stock Market Undervalued?67The Peak Oil Bubble70CHAPTER 7How Crowds Communicate71What Do Information Cascades Tell Investors?71The Role of the Mass Media73A Word about Personal Flexibility and the Futureof Media76ContentsviiMonitoring the Marke
7、ts76Studying the History of Bubbles and Crashes77CHAPTER 8Constructing Your Media Diary79Gaining the Edge79How My Diary Made a Difference in 200281Get Ready to Cut and Paste83Excerpts from My Media Diary: November 200586Excerpts from My Media Diary: June 200689Interpreting Magazine Covers92CHAPTER 9
8、Important Investment Themes97Telling the Markets Story97New Eras98Effect of War and International Political Crises onthe Stock Market100Financial Crises Create Crowds102New Industries and Companies104Commodity Booms106Interest Rate Movements and the Bond Market107Using Your Media Diary to Track Inve
9、stment Themes107CHAPTER 10Interpreting Your Diary: Market Semiotics109Media and Information Cascades109Your Media Diary: A Living History of InformationCascades110Semiotics: The Study of Signs110The Most Important Sign: The Price Chart112Magazine Cover Stories114Newspaper Headlines116Front Page Stor
10、ies and Editorials118Crystallizing Events118The Weight of the Evidence119More on Market Semiotics120viiiCONTENTSCHAPTER 11The Grand Strategy of Contrarian Trading123Contrarian Investment Planning123Contrarian Traders Investment Portfolio125The Investment Goal of the Contrarian Trader126A Warning abo
11、ut Capital Gains Taxes128Contrarian Trading Strategy #1: Dont Speculate128Contrarian Trading Strategy #2: Dont Invest with the Crowd129Contrarian Trading Strategy #3: Contrarian Rebalancing129The Aggressive Contrarian130A Long-Only Strategy for the Aggressive Contrarian Trader131More Aggressive Cont
12、rarian Trading Strategies134CHAPTER 12The Great Bull Market of 19822000137Prologue137The 1987 Crash138Interlude: The 19291932 Crash and Bear Market140The S they arent being unfairly exploited by more knowledgeable investors. It is important to remember that the concept of fair value can be dif-ficul
13、t to pin down. In the next chapter we briefly discuss one method for calculating fair value: discounted future dividends. In Chapter 5 we dis-cuss another: the q ratio, first developed by the economist James Tobin. Both of these methods are designed to give very long-term, multiyear esti- mates of t
14、he fair value price. But generally both methods are too unwieldy to be of much use to a professional speculator. We discuss more practical ways to estimate fair value in Chapter 6. It should come as no surprise that markets make mistakes. Usually these mistakes are only short-lived, minor ones, but
15、on occasion a market makes a really big, long-lasting mistake. Mistakes can take the form of a shortsighted reaction to a surprising corporate or economic development. Or a mistake can arise because of a mass delusion or mania. In either case, the price of the stock or commodity rises too high or fa
16、lls too low relative to any reasonable assessment of fair value.4THE ART OF CONTRARIAN TRADINGA speculators economic function is to be on the lookout for these market mistakes and to help correct them. He does this by buying when the price is below fair value and by selling when it is above. The specu- lators buying and selling thus helps to nudge the market price closer to fair value. In this way speculators perform a valuable service for longer- term investors. They help ensure th
