世界零售银行报告2009

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1、费2黑黑黑山、自C陪dltGRlI4Preface Capgemini and the European fmancial management & marketing assoation (Efina), and their new partner, UniCredit, are pleased to present this sixth annual edition of the肌rId&阳1Banki吃gRe，卢rt.As in the f1ve preVl例used旧创lS，it provides overviews and insighrs into the global retai

2、l banking industry亏dynamics，with a pricing section focusing叩theworlds retail banki吨pncmgstructu吨anda spotlight secti叩analysinga m口entcrucial retail banking issue. This year we take a clse look at the global mortgage industry The geographic spe ofthis years edition covers 26untries， including one new

3、untry， Russia. The number of retail banks it covers rose from 194 to 203 We continue叫rmvest1gatns into the worldwide pricing of day-to-day banking products and servi presenting倒rfmdings in a year引ypricing index. (Our web忧，. also provides a dashboard of each untrys national banking industry.) To inte

4、grate retail banking亏marketevolution and the increa剑ngrole the Internet plays in operations, we have introdud four new Internet products and se凹icesand develc于edtwo new usage profile鸟brancbuser and Internefer. These profi山shelped us ana守sethe impact the Internet is now having on custom臼sconsumption

5、patterns and retail banks pricing strategies Our spotlight sectn this year f，田useson口lOrtgageprofitability. We have analysed the impact the current fmancial and real estate crises are having叩retailbanks business models, and how-confronted with th change to their usual environment-retail banks can ad

6、dress this new market situation. Our ana悖川sbased on three d凶ferentinvestigations: a market survey, qualitative bank interv陀、凹，and an in-depth profitability analysis. The results highlight several m勾orfuture challenges retail banks will fa四inthe mortg唔esector, and outline some k叮solutionsbanks will n

7、eed to succeed It is with great pleasure thatwe pub且也this2009时山onofthe m旷IdRetail Banking R?rt. We hope山fmdings will answer some questions and stimulate debate among retail bankers. Most of all, we want to provide useful information that helps reta且bankersdeal口loreeffective悖withthe difficult operati

8、onal and strat唔issues thY will face in the years ahead 且时忡J8ertrand Lavaysslre Managlng Director Global Financlal Services Capgemini 12:L-一Roberto Nicastro Group Deputy CO & Head of Retail Dlvlslon UniCredit S.p.A Patrlck Desmars Secretary General European Flnancial Management & Marketlng Associatio

9、n I 3XU_叫时PRICING INDEX 5 PRICING INDEX ds p附:-md yltvll PR e avera e nce 0 aSlc an In servlces or t e oca actlve user e 00 rom ast ear, to 7 . ,Wlt avera e nces ran In rom 54. In sla-aCI IC to 7 . In uro e on- urozone. xce t or uro e on-urozone u 1. 00, a re lona area nces ecrease , own .10oln uro

10、e o ZJZ;22;2叫. 阳叫nues:t e com oun annu町 e nma cause 0 t IS ecrease was t e ec Ine In uro e urozone, most ue to t e Intro uctlon of packages in Ireland (down 33%), e secon ar cause was t e eve 0 ment 0 1 erentlate nCln er Istn utlon c anne: nternet active users paid 9,5 less per year than active user

11、s, and 31 less than branch active users, e ee structure ara e s our In In s, Wlt a ments accountln or a out 5 00 0 retal an revenues, and account management for 25%. e In e uro a ments rea e ect on nces contlnues ItS ownwar tren : t e nce 0 electronic payments fell by nearly 4 in Europe Eurozone (to

12、 57, down from rinstance, most banks charge the three user groups similar prices-very active users pay only twice as nmch as less乱ctiveusers. 1n contrast, Asi乱Pacificbanks charge very active users more than five times the price that less active users pay. Figure 1.4 shows the evolution of prices for

13、 an average local active user丘om2005 to 2009. On a global scale, prices have been effectively declining for the group over this period, with a compound annual growth rate of (-1.2%) for the four years investigated PRICING INDEX 9 FGURE1.3Average Local Profile Prices by User Frequency, 2009 ( 250 200

14、 -1 192.1 此tiveuser pr阳Less a:tive user pr阳150 -1 150.6 -29.1 114.4 100 99.4 70.3 50 46.8 47.1 39.2 -L一一一一一-38.719.7 。Europe Eurozone Europe Non-Eurozone North .merica Asia-Pacific Average Source: Capgemini anarysis, 2009 FGURE1.4 Evolution of Local Active Profile Prices, 2005 to 2009 (%) 2回5-2626-2

15、7 2口口7-20082008-2009 0% -0.3% -1% -1.0% -1.5% -2% -2.0% CAGR (-1.2%) -3% Source: Ca问肝Inlar回归is，2009, and pr刷ousWo刷阳tai/83n阳咱同等。rteditions 10 2009 World Retail Bankinq Report NEW THIS YEAR: INTERNET ACTIVE USERS VS. BRANCH ACTIVE USERS For this years edition, we wanted to go even further in analysing

16、 local customer usage, by looking more precisely at the in日uenceof the Internet in terms of pricing. We added two new usage patterns based on the local active users frequencies: the branch active user, who uses only branches, and the Internet active user, who uses the Internet whenever possible (Fig

17、ure 1.5) FlGURE 1.5 Comparison 01 Products and Services 10r Branch Active, Active, and Internet Active Users Needs Products and Services Branch Active User Active User Current account X X Account Management Online banking X 4 Call centre X X . Cheque X X Debit card X X Credit card X X 8ranch interna

18、l wire transfer X X Internet intemal wire transfer X Payments 8ranch external wire transfer X X Internet extemal wire transfer X 8ranch standing order X X Internet standing order X Direct debit X X Internet direct debit X Cash deposit at desk X X 4 Cash deposit at ATM X X Cash a Withdrawal at desk X

19、 X Utilisation Withdrawal at banks ATM X X Withdrawal at other banks ATMs X X Debit card stop payment X X Exceptions Cheque stop payment X X Handling Document search X X 8ankers draft X X Sou比。Capgerrinianalysis, 2009 Internet Active User 一X X X X X X X X X 一X X X X X X X X X X On average, an Intern

20、et active user paid 9.5 less than an active user (16% less), and about 311ess than a branch user (34% le叫。eeFigure 1.6) Most of the countries in this year￥study had pricing policies in which Internet services were less expensive than branch services. For example, certain Nordic countries established

21、 extremely attractive prices五:ronline services to move clients towards the Internet whenever products were available. Frequencies of use indicate that this pricing strategy direct1y in日uencescustomer behaviour. PRICING INDEX 11 Contrary to the global trend，乱岳wcountries priced their Internet usage hi

22、gher than their branch services An example of this is Russia, where banks have kept online banking fees elevated FGURE1.6 Comparison 01 Prices 10r 2009 Branch Active, Active, and Internet Active Users t。120一_118_ _ 110 100 91.9 90 80 75.3 75.3 75.3 70.4 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 。Europe Eurozone Europe N

23、on-Eurozone North Amerlca Asla-Paclflc AvGURE1.11 Global Fee Structure by Year and Region (%) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 200E 2007 2008 2009 Europe Europe North Asia Eurozone N而Eurozone阳lerlcaPacific Edition 01 the W(1d Retail BanA咱ReportR咱ioralAr咽 F百Iyme nts Exceptim s Hdling Cash

24、Utilisati. Account MaQement SourCf主c，仁归ninianalysis, 2009, 倒回阳cc协orldR8tai/8anking Report editior丁SFGURE1.12 Regional Price Discrepancies for Local Active Users, 2006 to 2009 (%) 100 阁国.，随口M2 80 70 国%50 40 30 2. ,. 。%E事)Eurozon E尊炮Non-Eult班回，.North Amrica Asia-Paci由c四面囚。7 2008 2009 SourCf主Capgeminia

25、r旧rysis，2009, 倒叫阿usWorld阳tai/8anking阳porteditior丁SThe Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) willlead to /0切erprices.We continued last year￥efforts to track SEP As impact on day归daybanking prices The expected result was that SEPAs standardised payments structure across the Eur二zonewould lead to tOl嗯hercom

26、petition and lower prices 2009 World Retail Bankinq Report The Europe Eurozone fee structure is far from homogeneous. While payments are historically the most important part of the 岳estructure, Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy a11 had a higher percentage of account management fees (see Figure 1.1

27、3) 16 EUROPEEUROZONE To check this expectation, we computed the prices of pan-European payment means, which we defined as the range of products that wil1 progressively be governed by SEPAs pan-European standards and regulations. These include internal and external wire transfers, di世ctdebits, credit

28、 and debit cards, and their underlying current accounts. This year, these produc臼accountedfor 64% of the fees paid by local active users in Europe Eurozone EuropeEur，四onezs!J加陀:gionwhe陀priceshave dec;阳ased伽，ost(do切n6.1钝).This decrease is dueJ.ainly to paymen臼(down7) and cash utilisation (down 1.3)，

29、d臼pitethe increase in account m旧lagementfees (up 3.3, main守dueto current accoun时(seeFigure 1.14) Banks reduced Internet payment fe臼归encouragecus归mersto use the Internet instead ofbranches The price of this range of products decreased in Europe Eurozone from 60.9 to 7 (see F堪ure1.15). In Europe Euroz

30、one, the 2006 to 2009 CAGR for these produc臼was(-3.6%). By comparison, outside of the Eurozone the prices of these prod山tsremained relatively stable (onlya舌。7decrease) We concluded, therefore, that SEPA continues to drive down prices in Europe Eurozone This year, big price decreases occurred in lrel

31、and (down 33.3%) and Spain (down 7.2%). In Ireland, the introduction of packages, including many automated transactlOns丘eeof ch叫ge，is responsible也rthe decline Beginning in 2006, many of Spain￥m可orbanks (led by Santander) began an e也rt归curbattrition and capture new clients by eliminating commissions

32、associated w咀hbanking transactions for preferred clients Excluding Ireland, Em二peEurozone prices actually rose byO.8% Sources 01 Fees 10r Core Banking Services in Europe Eurozone (%) FlGURE 1.13 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 吕自EZ百Z主E2-E囚自0% Counbies Edition 0 the协orldRGURE1.14 Product and

33、 Service Price Variations VS. Last Year for Local Active Users in Europe Eurozone ( 3.0 2.85 5 3.3 3 1 3 5 7 7.0 kc口cctc, Excepti口CPayments Management Utilisati口nHandling 1.5 。1.5 Current a川ctWithdr叫Credit咀，d3.0 at other banks ATMs Account Management Cash Utilisation payments SourCf主c，仁:jemnlar丁alys

34、is，2009 FGURE1.15 Price of Payment Means for the Local Active Profile, 2009 ( 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 。A B 67 ti: Average Rest of the World e咽5(vs. 44.2 in 200创Average Eurozone 57 (vs. (60.9 in囚08)巳j64 5 日Europe Eurozone PQRSTUVWXYZ Rest oftheWd SourCf主Capgeminiar丁alysis，2009 Note Lett8fs re阳esentco

35、untries a丁dtr凹川ceof payments means InEure Non-Eurozone, priincreased句1.6%卢rloml active users. In paymen臼，banks decreased credit card 岳es.They also increased 岳es五:rbranch wlre trans岳rsand decreased them for Intemet transfers to encourage customers to use the Internet This strategy almost made up五:rth

36、e cut in credit card 岳es.The banks also dropped 岳esfor withdrawals at their own ATMs, while increasing those for other banks ATMs, to encourage customers to withdraw money at their own distributors. They raised fees也Icurrent account management (see Figure 1.17) 2009 World Retail Bankinq Report The f

37、ee structure in Europe Non-Eurozone falls between the North American and Europe Eurozone pattems争eeFigure 1.16). This can be explained by the combination ofNordic clntries on one hand, which feature US-style 岳esheavily dependent on payrr二lents，and ofEastern European countries on the other, where ban

38、ks cha电:erelatively high prices for ac count ranagement and cash utilisation. The UK does not fit in either of these categories, but instead features an original pattern that relies on exceptions handling 18 EUROPE NON-EUROZONE Fee Sources for Core Banking Services in Europe Non-Eurozone (%) FlGURE

39、1.16 1剧%900/0 00/0 700/0 60% 500/0 40% 300/0 20% 100/0 x= 百ESNE的z。主SX甸、型份份2丘而严把口5丘32句苟且这?。-42ZZQmwN)型百 E g 旨 0% Countries Edition of the World Retail Banking Report Acc剧ntManagerent Cash Utilisation Exceptions Handli们3 Payments Source: Capgemini analysis, 2009 PRICING INDEX 19 FlGURE 1.17 Product an

40、d Service Price Variations VS. Last Year for Local Active Users in Europe Non-Eurozone ( 3.0 1.5 -0.7 -0.4 1.5 -3.0 A Cash Exce刘IOnPaylll9nts Ma，咆elll9ntUtilisation Handling 3.0 1.6 1.5 。1.5 .0 2.6 Current I Withdrawal at 川thdrawalBrand1 Bmc力Credit card account banhAm bat!ZMs|etzlJlre|lntZJe Account

41、 Management SourC8: Ca仁:j8mnlar丁alysis，2009 Cash Utilisation Payments Inl仔nelinternal wire transfer 20 2009 World Retail Bankinq Report NORTH AMERICA The structure of North American pricing has evolved slowly over the years. Most banks in this region have offered free account manageJ.ent since 2005,

42、 balanced by two other fee categories: payments (as much as 79% in the US) and cash utilisation (50% in Canada, the highest of any country) (see Figure 1.18) North America registered a moderate price decrease. North American prices decreased by 1.4% for local active users over last year (see Figure

43、1.19). The principal cause of this decrease can 1咒attributedto Canada, where prices dropped by 3%, while in the US, prices remained steady. Prices五:rall product and service categories decreased, but especially in payments (down n), where (unlike last year) banks reduced the price on bra配hwire transf

44、ers to become日J.orecompet1t1ve ASIA-PACIFIC Asia-Pa口ficspricing structure has become more consistent across our four product and service categories (see Figure 1.20). Its overall structure resul臼fromthe combination of two types of countries: those such 乱asChina 乱a，a叩P乱旧n，and Sing 乱porewhi芷chf也llowed

45、the US p乱tternof fl丘reeaccount management and heavy paymen臼fees，as opposed to those following the UK pattern, such as Australia and India, whose 岳esfrom exceptions handling great1y overshadowed those from paymen臼FlGURE 1.18 Sources 01 Fees 10r Core Banking Services in No同hAmerica (%) 100% 90% 80% 70

46、% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2回62007 2008 29 us Canada Edition 01 the World Retail Banking Report Countr陪S Pay盯ents Exceptions Handling Cash Utilisation Account Management Source: Capgemini analysis, 2009, and阳eviousWorld Re臼il8ar向咱阳porte们occPRICING INDEX 21 FlGURE 1.19 Product and Service Price Var

47、iations VS. Last Year for Local Active Users in North America t。0.2S 1 0 02 01 0.25 0.213 03 08 Accoont c, Exceptioos P町mootsCurroot I且II忡忡，川|hndMec咱仔1100tUblisabon Handling ecc口ccGURE1.20 Sources of Fees for Core Banking Services in Asia-Pacific (%) 1口。%90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2006 2

48、007 2008 20 Australia Singapore Japan China India 国ition01由eWorldR，时ailB四IdngR呵，回Countries Pa归nen也.Exceptions H田dling C回hU世lisation A:ount M田agementSourCf主Capgeminiar丁alysis，2009 22 2009 World Retail Bankinq Report The Asia-Pacific zone was, however, very heterogeneous, both in terms of prices and e

49、volution. Consumers habits differed a lot from one country to another Prices in Asia-Pa口自c岳11by 2.3% (down n.3) for local active users. The main change in the regions fee structure is the drop in paymen臼fees(external transfers and cheques) (see Figure 1.21). This decline is in line with that of1ast

50、year, driven prim盯ilybyIndia. It can be attributed to a steep fall in paymen臼prices, especially the elimination of minimum se凹lcecharges也rbranch external wire transfers FlGURE 1.21 Product and Service Price Variations vs. Last Year for Local Active Users in Asia-Pacific ( 3.0 1.5 -0.3 1.5 .0 Ac)unt

51、Cash Man正啕elll9ntUtilisation 3.0 1.5 。1.5 .0 0.6 Debit card stop payment Document search Exceptions Handling Source: Capgemini analysis, 2009 Branch external wire transfer 0.5 Ex国ptionsHandling 1.0 Cheque 1.8 Paylll9nts Debit card Payments 0.6 Internet exterr主Iwiretransfer CONCLUSION This years stud

52、y confirmed three ffi可ortrends observed over the past four years Prices continued to decline: A 2% drop from last year, and a 1.2% annual decline since 2005 Poli口esdesigned to encourage Internet usage were reinforced: An Internet active user paid -E9.5 less (16% lower) than a standard active user, a

53、nd about -e311ess (34% lower) than a branch active user Price convergence in Europe Eurozone and N orth America continued to increase: Price discrepancies are at 31.7% (down仕om32% last year) for Europe Eurozone and 27.4%也rNorth America (down from 33.8%) We believe these trends will continue: Along w

54、ith the development of1ow-cost remote banks, and clear pricing encouraged hy regulators and associations, the impact of the Internet and geographic price convergence wil1 continue to make prices decrease for the next five years PRICING INDEX 23 Bankswill need to createvalue in newways, notably thro咐

55、1differentiation on offers and services: Two mam也rceswil1 drive this challenge. First, banks wil1 need to extend the scope of their activities to non financial produc臼(realestate, services, insurance, etc) Second, they wil1 have to strengthen the added value they bring to clients by personalizing th

56、eir customer approach and developing their advisory capacities Nevertheless, the heart of the retail banking business must be conserved: Although revenues wil1 decrease in the short term, successful banks wil1 bear in mind that core banking activities are the backbone of their relationship with thei

57、r clients .四-_.苟同申MANAGING MORTGAGE PROFITABILlTY 25 MANA IN M RT A E PROFITABILITY RETAIL BANKS AT A CROSSROAD IN 2009 ds p附:-md y-vll PR 1. The Booming Mortgage Market, 2001-2007 ortgage was a growt englne or retal an s wor WI e rom口口ilJi1ii1!ri!iM口口7，Wlt some mar ets exceedln reasonable IImlts, e

58、s eClall In the ratlo of mort a e debt to ross domestlc roduct oug most mortgage mar ets expenence t IS oom, uge Iscrepancles cou e 0 serve etween in&a.!SiI Within each of these m由ets，retall banks develo ed slmllar commerc旧1and economic st旧teles De endln r.1iIi.t;:;:;r.fiI.;叩，mortgage was use elt er

59、 as a stan -a one pro uct比miilmFmJljFlilg:mm的Ri!ipro uct It IS use pnman y or customer acqulsltlon an IS so Wlt ow marglns, or a .v: n pro uct忧serves cus omer ac u阳阳。n。同ectlves，but wlth mar InS that alm at a rofltable return _ Mortgage Unlt Profltablllty: A 叭IdespreadDecllne untll 2007, Partly Mltlg

60、ated by Growth S1r;&v:UiE1i11limam!EiiriITI!l!j1iFI!lFIir.lIII时many as a resu t 0 t e ecrease In net Interest Incom own yaroun 5 aSls pOlnts ps In maJor mar ets ue to Intense competltlon etween retal an s Initiatives to enerate additional revenues and reduce costs could not com ensate for the loss i

61、n interest Il:itl;,JIP(*l .叮IIi1mf!ll川脚仙仰叫。由阳叫b阳M川川a副圳川111m川川n叫10忡p阳m川川川r阳时时耐。d叫毗巾f刊11m!忧阳t恒a剧llIl川陪司t旧。. 陪(;l副liWB址III旧。nabl陆e 3. The Year 2008: A Downward Turning Point in the Mortgage Market hlPilT1im!l;m时mecnsls mar e a c ear stop to posltlve tren s In t e mortgage mar et, Wlt an exp oSlon In fu

62、ndln costs havln a dramatlc 1m act on mort a e rofltablllt hlrmiTllt!1fl1SE阳tocome, retal an s WI nee to prepare or a slgnl Icant ec Ine In mortgage actlvltles ue t。hree main factors: the general slowdown of the world economy, the asset crisis with its impact on the cost of un Ing, an t e t reat 0 a

63、n Increaslng cost 0 ns The eneral trend towards re ulations rotectin consumers for exam le, limits on loan re a ment enalties an cellngs on tota customer阳tesIS 1 e y to contlnue, an WI ave an Impact on mortgage unlt pro Ita 1忧y26 2009 World Retail Bankinq Report 1.;lil!ItmilimmJl:mmj1*，.I.I，i.lliIij

64、TSIiEWIrmRiLim1I. an s are 00 Ing or ey opportunltles an actlvltles to a ress t e c a enges re ate to t IS new mar et situation over the next five ears. For marketin and sales: -mprove mortgage sa es pro UCtlV忧ancapa Iltles yen anclng cross-se Ing an ,W ere t ere IS critical mass, develo in a s ecia

65、lised sales force. -eve Op new pro ucts an servlces y ocuslng on Ig er margln servlces In e to mortgages an y creatlng pac ages Wlt ot er Inancla pro uctS. Use remote channels b reinforcin their osition as re-sales and sales channels. or pnclng an ns忏managementIssues: o timise ricin strate ies b dev

66、elo in customer-based ricin ,aware that an oftoda s customer s reads would not even coverthe cost of fundin anage ns y Improvlng customer se ectlon processes an too s, an yen anclng approac es to monitorin the loan ortfolio earl -warnin and watch-ortfolio a roaches, customer cate 0 -related actlons,

67、 etc . For middle/back 01刊ceand Informatlon technolo IT 0 tlm巴ation:o timise ori ination and servicin b s eedin u the loan ori ination rocesses and b lowerin the P34i#J.i.ii.iMil.if1FJl!IJi1ii1!riIiJil旧PIC conso 1 atlon o timise IT, also mainl b eo ra hic consolidation. mong t ese ey opportunlt恒s，t

68、e most cntlca are Improvlng mortgage sa es pro UCtlV忧EliT!J1i11l1Wan optlmlslng pnclng strategles. 5. Moving Forward over the Next Five Years .口，retalan s are at a crossroa an WI ave to ma e maJor c anges to remaln success u over t next Ive years Rather than rel In excluslvel on cost reductlon, the

69、best retall banks WIII contlnue to develo sales, partlcu ary y Improvlng cross-se Ing capa Iltles, pro uct un Ing, an customer- ase pnclng To - erformln retall banks that once relled on hook or stand-alone strate les WIII have to alter thelr a roaches In favour of the h brd strate aiR.JjJgmlEmW#l.i#

70、j.nmimlilmml.i4i.i.i.mmm;i#JiiI.msmmrsmuJIm; a roach, leavln behlnd the credlt-based model of the ast few ears n t IS cnsls context, mortgage spec旧llIl比tosurvlve on t elr own IS wea, ue to t e阳r.1Z1Elillill4.40.。eposlts an Irect cross-se Ing opportunlt恒s Mana in mort a e rofitabilit b develo in exce

71、llent rofitabilit models is the clear wa forward, atthou h &mfIi+，.l!i.i.lf!俨mmi6阳r:trZ1I&I;t;!1Im1:!比tm;giTffl1ifuhir;mmv.mil.#IMiii#li!4!Eii1:ml.eii#j.Ir:JiijP;f#lii.ii! l.i.，aif#1i!flilillJmmmllrmgm.i#lfi*i#lm METHODOLOGY We based our Spot1ight analysis on three different mvest1gatlOllS: a ffi盯ke

72、tsu凹ey，a qualitative bank survey, and an in-depth profitability analysis We completed the market survey to describe most effectively the role mortgages played in ten target countries: eight in Europe (Austria, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom), as well a

73、s the United States and apan In the qualitative bank survey, we questioned executives in fifty-four large retail banks in seventeen selected countries (1isted in Figure 2.7) to get a complete picture of their mortgage pr必les(see Figure 2.1) Our primary goal was to understand retail bankings potentia

74、l profitability over the next five years, and find ways归improvethis profitability. Each bank was asked questions in three areas (1) their key figures, profitability measurements, and their evolution and regulations affecting them; (2) the role mortgages played at their institution; and (3) key oppor

75、tunities they也resawfor the next five years MANAGING MORTGAGE PROFITABILlTY 27 For the pro白tabilityanalysis, we identified two large, international b旧lkinginstitutions in two different countries (we do not name them to日J.aintainagreed con自dential时Weconducted exhaustive examinations of their mortgage

76、proce田esand perspectives to obtain a complete picture of their pro自tabilityOuro坷ectivewas to calculate and compare the net present value (NPV) of net operating profit after tax (NOPAT), and the NPV of the econor日icvalue added (EVA) for loans originated in the past five years We began by defining a s

77、tandard loan for each bank, and identified五:urelements of each loan over its entire duration Revenues (such as net interest income, fees, insurance margin) Cost of risk Operating costs (distribution, origination, servicing, IT) Cost of capital employed Based on this methodology, we developed our Spo

78、t1ight in five par臼，beginning with a review of mor电agemarke臼overthe past five years, and ending with our view of retail banks most effective way forward in the future FGURE2.1 Breakdown 01 Banks in Qualitative Survey, by Geographic Area and Value 01 Loans (Outstanding Balances, 200 Location of Surve

79、yed Banks Value of Loans SourC8: Ca仁:j8mnlar丁alysis，2009 28 2009 World Retail Bankinq Report 1. THE BOOMING MORTGAGE MARKET, 2001-2007 Mortga唱ewas a growth engine for retail banks worldwide from 2001 through 2007. In the vast majority of countries, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for mortgage

80、 ou臼tandingbalances was above 10% for this period (Figure 2.2) Moreover, mortgages are a crucial product for economies in general and for retail banks in particular. Mortgages were a key financial product in most countries we studied, with ratios of mortgage ) PA D白rGJ刀吐iAUVd t:l v札却山1巳主J山hb川r21 pk

81、C汀咣mm川剧-er 315 臼nd!咱05fs 趴)om3一山b竹马口1兀e队口tzta 口pmn叩MFhd hmmu E二，矿。/1、ku7、m%L比山,dob! 123af UIUE仨AM盯山川比咱们nbmA且由UThe main explanation for these high mortgage debt to GDP ratios lies in the uncontrolled increase in housing prices, and the associated asset risks. In the US，也rexample, the House Price Inde

82、x (HPI) increased more than three-fold from 1985 through 2007 (see Figure 2.4) FlGURE2.2 Mortgage Market Growth, Outstanding Balances, 2001-2007 (CAGR) 70% 60%一-50% 40% 54.9% CAGR 01.04 CAGR04.07 30% +_. -20% 10% 0% UK Germany France S阳inNetherlands ltaly U5 Source: EMF, Bank of Japan, Bank of Engla

83、nd, US Census Bureau, FedEOal阳咽，Ausbia阳landJapan MANAGING MORTGAGE PROFITABILlTY 29 FGURE2.3Mortgage Outstanding Balances as a Percentage 01 GDP, 2007 us 1049 Netherlands UK Spain Germany France Austria Japan ltaly PoIand Source: EMF, Bank of Japan, US Census Bureau, Federal严臼erve，Dutch Nati丁alBank,

84、 National Bank of Poland, Capg旷门肌肉c ，旦2009FGURE2AUnited States House Price Index (HPI), 1985-2007 4 150 350 3 250 2 1 hOON 。ON的OON寸OON凹OONNOON FOON 安UONF F hF F 的F寸F凹FNF FF OF F F hF F 的FSource: Federal Hou创ngFinance Agency Note: 1980 Q1 = index 100 30 2009 World Retail Bankinq Re阳ctAs Figure 2.5 in

85、dicates, the importance of mor飞gageloans is also ref1ected in retail banks balance sheets For most countries, mor飞gageoutstanding balances were 15% or higher than their total banking asse臼Mortgages represent a signi自cantportion of a retail banks cus归merport也lioand net banking income (NBI). For the b

86、anks we studied, an average of 12% of customers had a mortgage, and mortgages accounted for 20% of a banks net banking income A1though most mortgage markets experienced this boom, huge discrepancies could be observed between these markets. Mortgage markets differ great1y from one country to another

87、in terms of debt, loan types, interest rates, market concentration, and distribution channels, as shown in Figure 2.6 Several notable differences em叫ged As noted above, in 2007 the ratio of mor飞gagedebt to GDP was quite high in the US, the UK, and归alesser extent, Spain, all countries highly exposed

88、to the current real estate and financial crisis. This ratio was also elevated in the Netherlands, part1y as a result of tax regulations encouragmg customers归borrow In terms of1oan types, f10ating rate loans largely dominated in Jap凹，Spain, and Italy, while fixed interest rate loans prevailed in othe

89、r countries In 2008, interest rates ranged from less than 180 bps (Japan) to 780 bps (Poland), with most countries having between 450 and 610 bps Market concentration (measured as the market share of outstandi鸣balancesof the top five banks) varied great1y仕Omone country to another. Germany is not ver

90、y concentrated, while Poland and Austria are quite concentrated. Concentration is intermediate in the other clntries， with a first cluster at乱.bout55% (Japan, the US, the UK, Sp严阳乱U凹1口叽Isecond 乱旺t乱bou旧t70%非仙heNetherlands and France) The mix of distribution channels is also very specific from one cou

91、ntry to another. In Japan, France, Germany, Poland, and Italy, retail banks rely main妙ondirect channels (branches, online bank channels, tied agents) for mor电agedistribution, while in Spain, the Netherlands, and the UK, retail banks distribute mortgages (in priority) through indirect channels, inclu

92、ding real estate agents, third parties, independent financial advisers, and other independent mortgage actors These last three countries also have the highest mortgage debt to GDP ratios FlGURE2.5 Mortgage Outstanding Balances as a Percentage 01 Retail Banking Assets, 2007 PoIand Netherlands Spain U

93、K US Germany France Italy Austria Source: EMF, US Censu巳Bureau，Federal Re四川战DutchNational Bank, National Bank of Poland, Capgemini analysis, 2009 NotE主2006data for Polanc 56% 孔10rtgageregulations and tax issues also differ great1y from one country to another. In付出tlOnto shared international and Euro

94、pean regulations, such as Basel II, each local mortgage market is ruled by specific locallaws and regulatory systems. These peculiarities can be seen in prepayment policies and tax deductions, as well as in lending insurance or debt policies FGURE2.6Mortgage Markets Differ Significantly by Country P

95、L JPN FR Mortgage debt l| (mortgage outstanding balances/GDP in 200 ITA AUS 0% 25% FR GER NL Loan type |fHH (as % 01 total outstanding balances in 2006) 100% fixed US UK AUS rate loans Representative mortgage interest rat& (in basis points; 10r Q1 or Q2 28) 100 bps 200 bps 300 bps Market concentrati

96、on GER (as % 010utstanding balances 01 top 1ive leaders; several years con臼dere呻10 % Distribution channelsb (as % 01 channels in 2口。由卡十H一|斗100% direct channel& MANAGING MORTGAGE PROFITABILlTY 31 In Ita妙，for instance, prepayment岳eswere removed recent1y, weakening the retention effect of mor飞gagesIn 2

97、0悦，the French government authorized a zero percent interest rate to encourage property ownership In the Netherlands, the Mortgage Fina町叫gCode of Conduct, focusing on transparency and duty to care about the customer, governs the mortgage market This code is a market agreement by mortgage actors with

98、government supervision 卡50% 110% 75% JPN ITA SP l I I I 50% PL训oatingrate loans 100% floating rate loans |11-1-例400 bps 5口obps 600 bps 由几川忖川7bps 800 bps 时川十-IH-l50% More than 80台U川T100% indirect channels 50% Source: EMF, US CE列丁susBureau, Bank of Er到and，Bank of Japan, Nati旷剑Bankof Poland, DJtch Nati

99、or回Bank，BCE Note: AUS: Austria, FR: France, GER: Germany, ITA: Italy, JPN: Ja仁an.NL: Netr凹lands.FL: Poland. SP句ain，UK: United Kingdom, US: United States a The re阳oc c节ativemortgage inte刊strates are an average of s仁ecificmortgage rates ffirst ranking mortgages, involving no阳iorsavings, with r。discoun

100、ts included, gross of tax r创ief，net of other bank costs (EMF de啊!由00)b N/A for Justria 32 2009 World Retail Bankinq Report 飞而Tithineach of these markets, retail banks developed similar commercial and economic strategies. Depending on the country, mortgage was used either as a stand-alo町，hook, or hyb

101、rid product (see Figure 2.7) Mor飞gageas a stand-alone product: Retail banks offer mortgages the way a mortgage specialist would; the product has to be profitable by itself Mor飞gageas a hook product: Mor飞gageis used primarily for customer acquisition, leading to profitable cross-sales, and is sold wi

102、th low margins Mor飞gageas a hybrid product: Retail banks consider mortgage as a product for customer acquisition, but withm盯ginsthat aim at a pr地tablereturn In two-thirds of the countries we investigated, retail banks mainly follow stand-alone or hybrid strategi白，in which a mortgage must be profitab

103、le, not just a tool for cross-sellin岳Inthese countries, rr丁anagmgmor飞兽geprofitability is essential FlGURE2.7 Mortgage Strategies, by Country Switzerland Ge汗manyRussia Netherlands Itaty Japan Romania PoIand Slovakia 2.8 Austria 2.7 Spain 2.5 Croatia 2.0 Belgium 2.0 Swede汗n1.7 France 1.3 Czech Republi

104、c 1.3 Australia 1.0 。2 3 Hook product Source: Capgemini in阳viewswith 54 Sl川eye dretail banks, 2009 In countries where the hook strategy is the rule, selling mor电agesat low margins is seen as a commer口alinvestment. Nonetheless, effective retail banks here monitor their mortgage pro自tabilityto evaluat

105、e investment cos臼，much as they do for their other commer口aland marketing investments 2. MORTGAGE UNIT PROFITABILlTY: A WIDESPREAD DECLlNE UNTIL 2007, PARTLY MITIGATED BY GROWTH Unit严。且tabilitydeclined from 2003 through 2007, primarily as a result of the decrease in net interest income (down by aroun

106、d 50 bps in m呼ormarkets)due to intense competition between retail banks. During this period, most banks were primarily seeking to defend or develop their market shares, 时ingaggressive commercial policies. As a result, the umtpro白tabilityof a mortgage product decreased over the last five years. As Fi

107、gure 2.8 indicates, in the m可orityof the banks we su凹eyed(61%), mortgage umtpro白tabilitydecreased either strongly or slight1y 5.0 Stand-alone product: retail 国oks。他eGURE2.8Mortgage Unit Profitability, 2003-2007 (%) Strongly decreased Slightly decre彼时 Steady Slightly increased Strongly increased Sour

108、Cf主Capgeminianalysis, 2009 FGURE2.9Case Studies: Evolution of Mortgage Profitability, 2003-2007 800 600 400 200 0一一一一一一一一一一一2一0一田0一0一-200 -400 -600 -800 SourCf主c，仁3创刊nianasis， 2009 357 112 2005 NPV of EVA BankXNPV af EVA 8ank Y 40 -740 Note Unit阳ofitabilityof a star才ardloan expressed as NFV of EVA.

109、Data are shown on an index basis, spec利cto each bank, wh8fe index 100 cmc仁j sto the value of the NFV of EVA for a loan originated in 2002 34 2009 World Retail Bankinq Re阳ctThe overall global unit profitability decline can be explained by the decrease in revenues, notably net interest income (see Fig

110、ure 2.10). Most bank 四ecutivesin our survey told us that their revenues have decreased over the past five years. Almost 8例也viewed net interest income as the fastest decreasing part of their revenues The case study findings were confirmed by the gr。因interest margin evolution observed in several m盯ket

111、sFrom 2003 through 2007, the average gross interest margin declined from 1.33%归0.80%(53 bps) (see Figures 2.11 and 2.12) Most decreasing parts Most increasing parts Source: Capgemini analysis, 2009 F】GU阻2.10Mortgage Unit Revenue Performance, 2003-2007 (%) Strongty decreased Slightly decreased Steady

112、 Slightty increas时 Strongly increased Net interest ince Fee revenues Ic四rancerevenues Other revenues Nw 只GURE2.11Changes in Mortgage Gross Interest Margins, by Country, 2003-2007 (%) 4,00/0 3,5% 3,00/0 2,5% 2,00/0 1,5% 1,00/0 0,5% 0,0% 0,5% 233 2C汇4235 2C汇62007 司.PoliJJlC咱.Italy唱.J，阳n司.UK唱.u: G.丁nan

113、y. S仁创.Nethe开阳n才s France Austria Source: Bank Souru主EMF，BCE, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Fede旧R05凹ve，National Bank of Poland，日mberg，Capg肝inianalysis, 2009 Note The mc川gagegross inter田tmarn is the diffe汀encebetw国nthe interest rate for customers and relevant local index rates Euribor 1 year for th

114、e following Europear丁countriess创lingmi到叫yvariatje rate loans: Spain and the UK Euribor 3 months: Ita A mix of El川回r3 months and川七Jr3 months: Poland LlBOR 3 months in Japane心eyen: Japar Government bonds (10 years): European cc巾l自sellingmainly fix回rateloans Swap ratE主UnitedStates As a consequence, ban

115、ks have developed other sources of revenue (notab炒岳esand insurance margins), but not enough to compensate也rthe loss in net interest income (see Figure 2.10) MANAGING MORTGAGE PROFITABILlTY 35 Initiatives to generate additional revenues and reduce costs could not compens旺efor the loss in interest rev

116、enues. A large m可orityofbanks (72%) reported that over this same period their operating cos臼remainedeither steady 0乌whendecreasing, did not decline enough to compensate for their revenue losses (see Figure 2.13) FlGURE2.12 Oecline in Average Mortgage Gross Interest Margin, 2003-2007 (%) 2口口32口口42臼)5

117、20口62007 1.33% 咀1.28% 毡1口8%咀0.92%咀0.80%Source: EMF. BCE. Bank of Japan. Bank of England. Fede.-c到Reserve.Na们onalBank of Poland. Bloom七9Note: Countries conside.-ed included A山tria.France. Germart阳Iy.Japan. the Netherlands. Poland. Spain. the UK. and the US Of all operating costs, origination and serv

118、icing Cos旧臼Com毗bin时ed(协nota拙乱址油blyu严川u山un时lde川川g盯ldr，配rec配cove时eha乱盯V时edecreased the mos旺t.N everthele臼ss鸟，乱s opposed t归O距V时e臼m孔uetrends, where i口mter配es旺te肝volu川1吭tl归onclearly drives a pattern of decline, cos臼exhibita less obvious pattern, as they depend to a greater四tenton each banks strategy rath

119、er than macroeconomic factors Moreover, those banks that were able to reduce costs were found in di岳rentm盯ketsand had different sizes and structures. Depending on the maturity of the market in which the bank was situated, this phenomenon can be explained in most cases either by experience curve effe

120、cts (emerging markets) or by structured productivity programs (more mature markets) Most decrea剑ngparts Most increasing parts SourCf主c，仁:jemnlar丁alysis，2009 ，乞FlGURE 2.13 Mortgage Unit Operating Cost Performance, 2003-2007 Strongly decreased Slight忖decre彼时 Steady Slightly increased Strongly increase

121、d Distribution costs Origination costs Se凹lngcosts Other costs 鞭. None 36 2009 World Retail Bankinq Re阳ctMore than 80% of the banks we su凹eyedreported that the cost of risk decreased or stayed steady over the past five years (see Figure 2.1功Nevertheless，since 2007 the cost of risk has risen in retai

122、l banks for newly originated loans FlGURE2.14 Cost 01 Risk, 2003-2007 (%) Strongly dee始时四ighttyde口崎sed Steady Slightly in剧sed Strongty increased &c山ce:Capgemini analysis, 2009 FlGURE2.15 General Decline in Mortgage Growth, H1 2007 V5. H1 20曲，by Country (%) 2.7% -35.9% Source: EM F, Bank of Japan, Ba

123、nk of England In most countries we studied, this decline in global unltpro缸abilitywaspartly mitigated by the rise in volume observed during this period, but value creation remained questionable. This was especially true for banks developing hook product strategies, where mortgage market share and cu

124、stomer acquisition were key objectives. Yet this strategy is not durable over the long term, because with1tm乱rketgrowth, as is the case today, trade-offs between market share and unit pro自tabilityno longer work 3. THE YEAR 2008: A DOWNWARD TURNING POINT IN THE MORTGAGE MARKET In 2008 the subprime cr

125、isis marked a clear stop to positive trends in the mortgage market, with an explosion in funding costs having a dramatic impact on mortgage profitability. This crisis w皿principallygener旺edby the brutal downtum in US housing prices in early 2008. The risky, high-volume trades in real estate loans spa

126、rked a global口isiswhose effects are still difficult归measure.Among the first victims were US日J.ortgagegiants Fannie孔1aeand Freddie Mac, taken over by the US government on 8 September 28， closely followed by the venerable investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc, which filed for bankruptcy on 15 S

127、eptember From the beginning of 2008, the world economy had begun to show signs of crisis, as il1ustrated for the mortgage market in Figure 2.15. When analysing the gross advances between first half (Hl) 2007 and H1 2008, volumes declined in all major m口ketsexcept Germa叮乱ndJapan, the two slowest-grow

128、ing mortgage m盯ketsof our survey. Since the beginning of the crisis, the cost of funding has exploded, dramatically affecting mortgage profitability of retail banks. As Bloomc盯greported, this huge increase can be observed by comparing J,n11,y 2009坦布ve-yearSenior Crenit Defall1t Swap (CDS) with what此

129、wasbe也rethe Sl问nmecnSlS for the twenty top listed European banks. In June 2007-before the subprime crisis-the five-year Senior CDS was 8 bps on average, but by January 2009, it had reached 150 bps, for a 142 bps rise in eighteen months. This rise was even higher (up 179 bps) for the ten hardest-hit

130、banks In the five years tome， retail banks will need to prepare品。ra slgm且cantdecline in mortgage activity due to three main factors: the general slowdown of the world economy, the asset crisis with its impact on the cost of funding, and the threat of an increasing cost ofrisk. At the beginning ofJan

131、uary 2009, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that it would significant1y increase its pr，叮ectionof losses and withdrawals due to the crisis, previously established at $1.4 tril1ion. The IMF￥projectlOns for the 2009 fiscal year are grim. G lobally, the world economy is set to grow by on

132、ly 2.2% (down from 3.7% in 2008 and 5.0% in 2007), fuelled primarilyby stil1 pos山vegrowth levels in emerging countries All signs point to a signi白白ntand widespread economic slowdown in the years to come. Figure 2.16, taken from the L 几1FTf切ldEconomic Outlook 2008 (updated version), il1ustrates the v

133、arious financial ups and downs of the past thirty years. As the figure shows, the normal period of recovery time from a crisis or recession is three or four years. But no one can predict the length of recuperation time FGURE2.16Real GDP Growth and Trends (%) MANAGING MORTGAGE PROFITABILlTY 37 necess

134、ary for any financial disaster, especially one of the current magnitude. Nonetheless, if his归ryIS any guide, previous declining cycles indicate that a recovery process is not likely to begin before 2011 This global economic slowdown wil1 be accelerated by the decline in the mortgage business itself,

135、 which wil1 crea te a VIClOUS c口de，with impacts on the real estate and construction businesses that are key contribu归rsto GDP creation A marked lack of assets wil1 be another hallmark of the next five years. The ability to free up cap扰乱1，so crucial to lending activities, wil1 be even more seriously

136、constricted bythe implementation ofBasel II, which wil1 force banks to increase their capital on reserve Cost of funding for banks is like悖toremain high, even though the 2008 liquidity crisis might be over. This lack of assets wil1 affect all1enders, particularly the independent mortgage specialis臼w

137、homight not be able to su凹iveon their own阳nexample is Interhyp, a leading German independent speciali旺，acquired by ING Direct in Jl句2008)9 8 ,.- 6 +-，-晶-5 ,.-, s 2 w抽一川棚时机且kdH -Hm -H Mm 咽阳刚回町回叫晦盹MJ叫如蛐su HUEE S -, 。USR田a坦lon1 1990 2009 1980 1985 1995 2E 2005 Em阳回Ingand d脚酬。plr咱鼠目nor啊醋Sourc缸!ntmatior回

138、Mon副厅阳ndWorld Economic CUt.ok 28 (updated version) M咀In回回economl回38 2009 World Retail Bankinq Re阳ctAs many have observed since 2007, the cost of risk has risen-and not on扪ncountries affected by the subprime crisis. In the process, retail banks we surveyed have become increasingly preoccupied by the

139、threat ofheightened risk in the years to come The recent years general trend towards regul旺lOnsprotecting consumers (阳example，limits on loan prepa:严nentpenalties and ceilings on total customer rates) is likely to continue, and will have an impact on mortgage unit pro且tability.4. HOW CAN RETAIL BANKS

140、 RESPOND TO THE NEW MARKET SITUATION? Banks are looking也rkey opportunities and activities to address the challenges related to this new market situation over the next five years. We asked surveyed banks to name their top opportunities for addressing the challenges related to this new market situatio

141、n over the next five years As Figure 2.17 indicates, they identified six key opportumt1es Three in marketing and sales Improving mortgage sales prc扣ctivityandcapabilities Developing new products and services Using remote channels One in pricing and risk Pricing and risk management Two in middle/back

142、 offi四andITOrigination and servicing optimisation IT optimisation Among them, the Improving mortgage sales productivity and capabilities opportunity, and the Pricing and risk management opportunity, are the most important, having been cited by over half the surveyed banks (see F邬lre2.17) Other oppor

143、tunities were proposed, such as developing intermediary channels and cross-border distribution, but these were not viewed as signi白canten19h to warrant in-depth study here Marketing and Sales Improving mortgage sales productivity and capabilities. Improving mor飞gagesales prod山t1vltyand capabilities

144、is the first overall and is considered a key opportunity in all regions. To capitalise on this m可oropportunity, retail banks saw the need to initiate three critical activities (see Figure 2.18) Improve cross-selling capabilities Develop a mortgage specialised sales force IntensicommercialmanagementF

145、lGURE2.17 Key Opportunities to Address the New Mortgage Market Situation (% Respondents) Improving mtgage sales productivity and car:;血litiesOevelo阴咱们ew阳oductsand services Using remote channels Pring and risk ma们agementOrigination and servlclng optlmlsatlon IT optimisati比m&c山ce:Capgemini inte川ewswit

146、h 54 surveyed retail banks, 2009 57% Marketing and Sales Priclng and Risk Middlel B主ck-O仔ceandIT句:tlmlsatlonMANAGING MORTGAGE PROFITABILlTY 39 FGURE2.18 Activities to Improve Sales Productivity and Capabilities over the Next 5 Years (% Respondents) Improvecn国s-sellingC叩abiliti酷Developa m田地啕esp田ial回回

147、国l田forceIn恒nsifycommerci创man啕ementSourCf主Capgeminiinte川ewswith 54 surv eye才retailbanks, 2009 Improving cross-selling capabilities is the most critical appr二achto improving sales productivity. A large majority of retail banks (near守80%of our respondents) aim to develop the cross-selling capabilities

148、of their sales也rcesover the next five years. This is particularly notable because cross-selling policies related归日J.ortgagesare already widespread today. Most responding banks have already developed cr，。因selling policies in the mortgage area. The main FlGURE 2.19 Main Cross-Sold Products (% Responde

149、nts) Principal current田:countCr回ItcardHome Insurance ufe insurance Lending insurance Savings account 国bltcard Consumerc晴dSourCf主c，仁 0门liniinte川ewswith 54 surveyed retail banks, 2009 77目cross-sold products were principal current accounts and credit cards争eeFigure 2.19). Insurance products (home insur

150、ance, li岳insurance，and lending insurance) were also often mentioned as cross-sold products Intens均1鸣commercialmanagement through planning and reporting pr，二:essesand tools is a global lever for all retail banking activiti白，not Just mor飞gage57 40 2009 World Retail Bankinq Re阳，tExecutives in nearly 60

151、% of the banks su凹eyedreported that sales force specialisation (with mortgage specialists) is important, and most have already initiated the process. This specialisation can be accomplished either by developing a specific sales force, or by implementing specialised call centres accessible both by cu

152、stomers (in addition to the Internet)乱ndby the retail banking sales也rce(as an additional source of mortgage expertise) Nevertheless, some banks surveyed reported that in todays context of crisis, investing in new sales forces, with its additional costs, might not be relevant Developing new products

153、and services. This activity was seen by many responden臼asless important for the coming years than it has been for the past five, but it stil1 remains a key opportunity in 38% of the banks where we interviewed (see Figure 2.17, above) To capitalise on this opportunity, retail banks are focusing on th

154、ree areas争eeFigure 2.20) Develop non-financial products and services related to mortgage Create convergence/packages with consumer finance Innovate mortgage products Developing non-financial products and services rela ted to mor飞gages(such as home se凹icesand surveil1ance se凹ices)was viewed as an imp

155、ortant activity in nearly half the banks we interviewed, with the objective of generating new revenues with higher margins than those offered by mortgages FlGURE2.20 Critical Areas in Which to Develop New Products and Services (% Respondents) Develop non-financial products and services ce主tedto mtga

156、ge Cce主teconv创rgencelpackages with 白I1sumer白nanceInnovate mtgage 阳oductsSource: Capgemini interviews with 54 Sl川eyedretail banks, 2009 48% Creating packages with other financial products is another crucial area for this opportunity. Bank executives we interviewed cited consumer finance, as well as p

157、ayment cards and insurance, as key produc臼orpackaging. 孔10rtgageproduct innovation is not considered to be as important as it has been for the past five years. Most retail banks believe that existing products respond to their customer needs. Yet some innovation wil1 be done by s臼1m呻1口:tp抖l均morcu览sto

158、m口lsmg eXl阻stingproduc 臼,for ex 乱盯m口pleby i口mc距m乱aSl口I鸣t由he四1口r f1e曰x巾山t叮y(邸10乱anm乱atu旧un叮，rep 乱叮ymen旧tpoli比C严etc). Addi此tt归lOna乱l 守协，口m川lnov乱t wil1 be u阻sedfor ni芷cheproduc臼(seni旧or俨 mortgages, for instance) Usingremote channels. Using remote channels (such as the Internet and call centres) was the

159、 sixth opportunity overall, mentioned by 36% of the banks we surveyed. This opportunity has grown the most, with on妙13%ofbanks we surveyed saying they had considered it important for the past five years Remote channels are used today in the mortgage sales pr出ess，but principally as information channe

160、ls Sales through remote channels accounted for on炒3% of mortgage sales in the banks we surveyed (see Figure 2.21) FlGU阻2.21Mortgage Distribution Channels (号01 Total Sales) Branches Online bank channel Third parties Tied agent们etworksSource: Capgemini interviews with 54 Sl川eyedretail ba附s，2009 To cap

161、italise on this opportunity, retail banks are considering two critical means (see Figure 2.22) Position remote channels as pre-sales channels for branches Position remote channels as sales channels Executives in more than half the retail banks surveyed said they want to develop remote channels as pr

162、e-sales channels for branches. They would use these remote channels to achieve the first steps of the sales process-ident均andselect customers, and understand their needs. The sale itself would take place at the branch level, so that the bank could capitalise on the customer relationship at a key com

163、mer口乱1moment Nea句40%said they intend to develop remote channels as complementary sales channels to branches. In this case, the declared ambition is to se115%-10% of products through the Internet or ca11 centres. This wil1 be linked to the introduction of simpli自edoffers FGURE2.22 Critical Means to U

164、se Remote Channels in the Next 5 Years (% Respondents) Position remote d 主阳elsas阳e-saleschannels fbranches Position remote channels as sales channels SourCf主CapgeminiinterviNS with 54 surveye才retailbanks, 2009 53% MANAGING MORTGAGE PROFITABILlTY 41 Pricing and Risk Managem ent Pricing and risk m旧lag

165、ementis the second opportunity overall, and respondents in over half the banks surveyed cited this area as one of their top six opportunities overthe n四tfive years (see Figure 2.17, above). They were keenly aware that any of todays customer spreads would not even cover the cost of funding. They inte

166、nd to take three primary actions to maximise the benefits from this opportunity (see Figure 2.23) Use customer-based pricing Improve customer selection processes and tools Enhance approaches to loan portfolio monitoring Successful retail banks wil1 develop customer-based pricing while improving cust

167、omer selection. Already, many banks often price their mortgage products using a mix of practices, including interest margin -based pricing, competition-based pricing, and customer-based pricing. Nearly 70% of responding banks told us that customer-based pricing is increasingly important in the conte

168、xt ofBasel II, the capital squeeze, and increasing client risk. Retail banks intend to differentiate their pricing even more according to client risk and potential FlGURE 2.23 Activities to Maximise Pricing and Risk Management over the Next 5 Years (% Respondents) Use custon、.rb面回plicingImprove cust

169、omer SeI田tlonpro回S民黯回dtools Enhan国approa由眉toloan po内foliomonit。而 ngSourCf主Capgeminiint8fviews with 54 Sl川ey e dretail banks, 2009 69% 42 2009 World Retail Bankinq Report Risk management wil1 remain a core mortgage practice and wil1 be reinforced by the new market situation. Improving the customer se

170、lection processes and tools was cited as a primary lever in two-thirds of the banks surveyed, and credit risk management/ monitoring (such as probab山tyof default PD, loss given default LGD, internal ratings-based IRB, and internal ratings-based approach IRBA) was viewed as essential by half of them

171、Enhancing approaches to loan portfolio monitoring is also considered critica1. The rising cost of risk, combined with greater difficulty in externalising risk through securitisation, poses new challenges for retail banks. Banks wil1 need to remain vigilant concerning loan quality d巳gradationon the b

172、alance sheet，盯oidingthe toxic combination of acquiring low-margin, high-risk (bad) loans, and losing more pro白table(good) loans Banks wil1 have to develop early-warning and watch-portfolio approaches to ident均riskyloans before they become non-performin岳Theywil1need to define and implement speci自cact

173、ions for each customer category to avoid degradation of the credit port也lio.Another way to address this new risk management challenge wil1 be to mutualise it through specialised institutions, as is done today in some countries (for example, the Credit Logement institution in France) Middle/Back-Offi

174、ce and IT Optimisation Origination and servicing optimis旺ion.This is the third opportunity overall, cited in 45% of the banks in our survey. We focused on each part of the mor飞gagevalue chain, as shown in Figure 2.24 We divided the origination pr，二:essinto four parts product design, risk management,

175、 underwriting, and grantinglcash transfer FlGURE2.24 Mortgage Origination and Servicing Value Chain h创 We divided the servicing process into three parts after-sales management, recovery, and litigation In 61 % of surveyed banks, respondents considered the acceleration of the origination process as a

176、 m可orchallenge that had to be met. They believe the capac叮tomake a loan quickly (e.g. two days) is a key success factor for sales. Accordingly，日J.anybankshave either already changed or aim to change tools in their front offi口怡ndoften in their middle and back offices) to gain efficiency and speed As

177、Figure 2.25 indicates, responden臼alsocited actions to reduce operating costs and lower the breakeven point through organisation structure geographic consolidation, synergies with other actors, offshoring, and outsourcing. Geographic consolidation was the most cited lever, as it was for IT optimisati

178、on. Almost one out of every ten banks aims to develop multi-country middle and back offices over the next five years (see Figure 2.26) One-third of retail banks surveyed said they hope to develop synergies with other institutions, main悖with other banks and mortgage speciali白，but also with consumer f

179、inance institutions (see Figure 2.27) They would accomplish this either by sharing tools or even origination and servicing platforms, including human resources Outsourcing and offshoring were identified by only a 岳wsurveyed banks respondents as areas where they th屯httheir banks should take action (s

180、ee Figure 2.25). While some leading retail banks have already capitalised in this area and wil1 continue to do so, most consider the barriers to implementation, such 乱sregulation and social and political issues，乱ssimply thigh GrtmEEEEDE Sour: Capgemini anal归is，2009 MANAGING MORTGAGE PROFITABILlTY 43

181、 FlGURE 2.25 Ways to Optimise Origination and Servicing over the Next 5 Years (% Respondents) Accelerate the origination process Ge咱阳阱icconsolidation Synergies with other actors Off由onng。utsourcingSourCf主Capgeminiint8fviNS with 54 SL川oy o才retailbanks, 2009 61% 口rganisationstructure FGURE2.26 Levels

182、01 Origination and Servicing Geographic FGURE2.27 Origination and Servicing Synergies Consolidation 10r the Next 5 Years (%) with Others (% Respondents) International 8% SourCf主Capgeminiinte川rmswith 54 surveye才retailbanks, 2009 ICon鼠.1, 伽咽。帽, 26比国lIim!睛咱圄 specialists 101V-SourCf主Capgeminiint8fvirms

183、with 54 Sl川eyedretail banks, 2009 44 2009 World Retail Bankinq Re阳ctAltogether, organisation structure wil1 affect all parts of the mortgage origination and servicing value chain (see Figure 2.28) IT optimis旺ion.IT optimisation is often a prereqmslte五:roptimising origination and servicing, especiall

184、y when considering organisation restructuring. For this opportunity, more than one-third ofbanks surveyed considered the optimisation of their IT on a geographic basis as critical (see Figure 2.29) As Figure 2.30 il1ustrates, banks wil1 strongly consider developing international IT systems (note the

185、 expected rise from 6% to 31 %) in the five years to come. They expect this rise despite the fact that the nationallevel wil1 remain the primary consolidation level也rmortgage IT over the next five years. To manage mor飞gages，most banks surveyed (77%) said they have an IT syste日1.at the nationallevel,

186、 either for a part or all of their operations As for origination and se凹icingoptimisation, other levers identified for IT optimisation are synergies with other actors (cited by one out of four banks), ITou臼ourcing，and IT offshoring (about one out offive banks) FlGURE2.28 Changes in Origination and S

187、ervicing Value Chain (% Respondents) Underwriting 15% Granting/c主shtransfe汀After-sales management 13% Recovery 11% Product design 10% Risk manajement 10% Litigation Servicing Origination Sour: Capgemini interviews with 54 Sl川eyedretail banks, 2009 MANAGING MORTGAGE PROFITABILlTY 45 FlGURE 2.29 Ways

188、to Optimise IT over the Next 5 Yt闺rs(% Respondents) g职啕回phlCns刷刷刷刷34% IT町回回陆sw恒hother actors 。ut皿urcmg厅陆hor1ngSourCf主Capgeminiinte川ewswith 54 surveye才retailbanks, 2009 FGURE2.30IT Consolidation, Today and in 5 Years (%) Today In 5 years International National Local SourCf主c，仁:jeminiinterviNS with 54

189、 surveyed retail banks, 2009 46 2009 World Retail 8a附nqRe阳门5. MOVING FORWARD OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS In 2009, retail banks are at a crossroad, and they will have to田lplementsignificant changes to remain successful over the next five years. Rather than relying exclusively on cost reduction, retail b

190、anks should continue to develop sales. Reducing cost, primarily through geographic consolidation of middle and back offices as well as IT systems, should undoubtedly be a top priority for retail banks. Nevertheless, in出econtext of the current financial crisis, cutting costs is not a sufficient measu

191、re by itself, due to high Hxed costs and uncertain revenue streams Banks should give equal priority to the development of their sal白，particularly by improving cross-selling capabilities, product bundling, and customer-based pricing. Retail banks might also have to find and attract new, lower-net-wor

192、th dients to increase volume safeguard乱gainstincreased risk, the challenge will be to invent a new乱pproachto customer selection adapted to this clientele Top-performing retail banks that once relied on hook or stad-alone strategies wil1 have to rethink their approaches in favour of the hybrid strate

193、gy. Two key drivers will也rcethis convergence of mor飞gagestrategies. First, the increased importance of cross-selling will push banks to abandon the stand-a/one strategy, as the dedine in volume wil1 force them to cross-sell more products. Second, heightened regulatory restrictions on some packages (

194、such as mortgage plus lending insurance) wil1 threaten those banks relying exdusively on hook strategies Retail banks wll also have to rethink their business models and revert 旬出eirhistoric deposit-based approach, leavng behnd the credit-based model 由eyhave reled on over the past few years. For seve

195、ral years, credit, and notably mortga驴，drove retail bank growth Today, the new market conditions are dramatically different: a dedining economy, heightened funding requirements (Basel II constrain阻，1 i mi ted access through securitisation), and the increasing cost of client risk are all jeopardising

196、 the old credit-based model. A new deposit-based approach appears to be inevitable. Successful banks of tomorrow wil1 be those with the most deposits and there岳阳thehighest capabilityfund and trans也rmthose deposits into credits Jn ths crisis context, mortgage specialists ab山tyto survive on their own

197、is weak. V山thno access to deposits and no direct cross-selling opportunties, mortgage special回归willhave to lean on divers凶edretail banks to get through the crisis. This would help mortgages become profitable again in the medium term, as the result of a lower supply. Over 80% of the banks reported th

198、ey concentrate their profitability analyses exdusively on net interest m盯gin，with some also taking into account other revenues (fees, insurance margins) in the mix But only a few do what is needed to succeed today (see Figure 2.31): develop a complete vision of mortgage profitability, including reve

199、nues, cost of risk, operating costs (distribution, origination, servicing, and IT), and costs of capital employed; and use the key profitability indicators: net operatlng pro且tafter tax, economic value added, and return on assets Managing mortgage pro自tabilityby developing excellent严ofitabilitymodel

200、s is the clcar way forward, although todayit is an under-used practice We believe it is the best way for retal banks to ensure they are prep盯ed五卫thedaunting challenges they will face in the years ahead MANAGING MORTGAGE PROFITABILlTY 47 FGURE2.31 Framework 01 World Retail Banking Report 2009 Mortgag

201、e Pro1itability Model 喝f-Rever哑主S-. N1:6.:;1 司串-Operating costs Costoffundi吨Costofr也kSourC8: Ca仁:j8mnlar丁alysis，2009 . =-叫时,r-6/ ，、9豆METHODOlOGY 49 回2009World Retail Bankinq Re阳ctMETHODOLOGY For this sixth annual ed山onof the Tf如ldRetail Banking RJrt， we have continued to refine the methodology used

202、in previous editions. We have also expanded our coverage to include one new country, Russia Each of the 26 country teams contributed to its own national dashboard (see ). assisted in the pricing analysis, and conducted spot1ight interviews. The dashboards on the website provide overviews of the nati

203、onal banking industry也reach country surveyed. In every country studied, a national team identified the m可ormacroeconomic indicators and described the retail banking environment, the type and size of players, the produc臼sold，and the main trends in that country￥retail banking industry. The dashboards

204、map these insigh臼ina detailed and consistent format (see Figure A.1). This work also helped us det盯minewhich banks归includein the pricing index. Figure A.2 provides a complete list of the banks surveyed The main principles of our pricing index methodology remain the same as for last year. The pncmg a

205、na怡isprovides both local and global views based on prices and frequency of use矶lecalculated prices on the basis of usage patterns for three kinds of user: less active, active, and very active To determine those groups, we split the total customer community into three parts. The 20% with the lowest c

206、onsumption ofbanking se凹lceswere considered the Zess active users, the 20% consuming the most the very active users, and the remaining 60% the active users. Figure A.3 shows how local profiles vary by usage pattern. In countries where consumer behaviour is tracked, bankers were able to provide this

207、data or refine previous patterns; in other countries, local frequencies were estimated by our local retail banking四pertsTo compare Internet and branch prices more effectively, this year we created two new pro自lesbased on the local active user: the branch active us叫who uses on炒branches，and the Intern

208、et active user, who uses on炒Internet pr飞二1山tswhen available All comparisons between our 2006,2007,2008, and 2009 editions were made on the basis of three factors A fZat exchange rate: To compare price evolutions from 2008 to 20仰，without those figures being skewed by exchange rate effects, we recalcu

209、lated last year￥prices for those countries that use a currency other than euros based on exchange rates of 8 September 2008 A same-country scope: For the countries added over the years since 2006 (Croatia, Ind叽Ireland，Japan, Romania, Russia, and Singapore), we assumed a f1at price evolution between

210、2006 and their first year in the report .0阳卢equencypattern: The pr口focusof the comparisons was ensured by recalculating last years price indexes based on this year￥frequencies of use (eliminating effects from pattern changes) As a result, the recalculated price indexes differ丘omthe ones published in

211、 previous years repor臼Forinstance, the 2008 local profile price index is now recalculated as 71.8， compared to 70 published in the 2008 analysis We have refined some definitions in our product list to ref1ect changes in the products each bank sells Some changes are only marketing window-dressing, bu

212、t others are more substantia1. For instance, we now distinguish Internet and branch usage by splitting fourpr，二扣cts(internal wire trans岳白，external wire trans岳白，standi鸣orders，and direct deb蚓mtobranch and Internet categories JJUtlA.l Sa巾0.，恼。.削OQlOGY m 一-一ZL 一.-一一ZEL 一，=，:一国mzrm m一-. -叩t=zrr a ZF 一一王F

213、画面m tEF-tr 】且一= -曲三罢王工-E E ZU四也四回回H巳叫阳s叫阿阳刚阳-.也.叫呻叩叶呻如叫惘d阳叩审叫C叩m咄引蚓峭叫m叫叫巾2饲 割52 2009 World Retail Bankinq Report FlGURE A.2 Pricing Index Survey Sample: 203 Retail Banks in 26 Countries l:!mJfJ3i!ut.!.#j -11 Belgium 11 France _Austri吕Share 口fd叩口sits7巳咄Share 口fd叩口sits66% Share 01 deposits回驰BA-CA Dexi

214、a BanqJe P口puleBAWAG PS.K F口rtlsBNP Paribas Erste Bank ING Caisse dpargne Rai怦eisenbankKBC CCF HSBC Sparkassen四川口CIC Vdk2banken sect口Crdit Lylnals Crdit Mutuel La Banque P口staleS臼:itGnr吕leI! Germany . .1归cdIlltaly Share 口fd叩口sits68% Share 口1dep口sits1口口%Share 01 deposits 65% C1门merzbankAIB BNL 臼3utsc

215、heBank Bank口fll自landCredem Cfesdner Bank Natim司IrishBank Intesa San Pa口|口HVB PI开manentTSB MP2 Mutual banks Ulster Bank UBI F口stbankUniCredit Saving banks . .TNhee theHands Portugal S阳mShare 口1dep口sits91% Share 口fd叩口sits84% Share 01 deposits 86% ABNAMR口BCP BBVA F口rtlsBES Bancaja ING BP Banc口SabadellF

216、口stbankCGD Banest口Rabcbank MG Bankinter SNS Bank 了ottaCaixa Catalur1a Cajamadrid CAM Grup口 Banc口 F口pcl吕IberCaja Grup口 SantanderING臼rectLa Caixa 口阳nBank Unicaja Uc口4，.:.:mir.l Austral阻国.China :Z: India Share 口fd叩口sits65% Share 口fd叩口sits69% Share 01 deposits 47% ANZ ABC Bank 01 Baroda CBA BC Bank 口Iln

217、daNAE BOC Canar吕 BankSt. Gea ge CCB Citibank N.A WBC CMB HDFC Bank ICBC ICICI Bank Minsheng Punjab Nati口nalBank ShE ueuvdh ca 川pnuednotnB3 a 1k Standard Chartered B主ckShenmen State Bank口Ilndi吕De，时口pmentBank - Japan CI!III Singapae Share 口1dep口sits77% Share 口fd叩口sits8巳%Bank 01 T，口kyo-MitsubiDBS Bank

218、shi UFJ 口lerse3SChinese Bank 01 Yct;呻，m，Banking C口Ip口，口nMizuh口BankUni怕d口verseasBank Re田naBank Sumitc:m口MitsuiB k ing Ca paatim Sumitc:m口Trustand Banking Capaati叶1Sourc缸Capgem川analys巳，2009l:!mJfJh!Ji!3li.tN,! z 叫a. liC Share 01 deposits 83% Share口1dep口sits81% Erste Bank CS口EHyp口AlpeActia Bank Ceska S

219、pa itelna 口TPBanka GE M口neyBank Privredna Banka KB Zagreb UniCredit Railleisenbank 5口citGnrae Splitska Banka Zagrebacka Banka _ Pdand R口manlaShare 01 deposits 83% Share口fd叩口sits86% BGZ Alpha Bank BPH Banca C叶利阜rcial吕BRE (MultiBank) R吓nana-ErsteBZWBK Bank Citibank Banca R口manascaING Banca Transilva们旧

220、Kredyt Bank Bancp口Millenium BRD Groope Socit Gnr吕lePEKAO CEC PK口BPING B k R口manlaRailleisenbank Rai怦eisenbankUniCredit Tiriac Bank Vdk2bank -届.31口k旧.-_ Sweden Share 01 deposits 87% Share口fd叩口sits84% Cesk口口yec司吕Danske Bank 口bchodnaBanka N口rdeaDexi吕SEB Sloven班吕SporitelnaSkandiaBanken Tatra Banka Sven司

221、aHand时5UniCred t banken Vsecbecna山f口Swedbank B白丁k，吕Eumtedklngdm Share 01 deposits回%Abbey Barclays HBOS HSBC LI口ydsTSB RB口SN口时1iW.:.+. Canada USA Share 01 deposits囚%I Share 01 deposits 35% BMO I ABNAMRO CIBC I Bank 01 h节encaE叫町dinsFleet Bostm RBC I Citigrp Scotia I HSBC TD I JP Morgan Chase Sun Trust

222、 US Bancp h川aW创IsFargo 圃， E N口附吕yShare 口1deposits 61% LnB N口RFc揪出Na dea spM町Idek-主Nnk1 gl sp队buerkd主Nnk1 rd-Na ge 部吕审bank1 SR-Bank _ Russia Share 口1deposits 61% Alla Bank Bank 01 M口E口WBSGV Citibank GPI口mbank口TPBank Raiffeisenbank R口2bankRussi吕nAgricultur吕|Bank 址)erbankUniCredit Bank UI吕|四b汀B24 C Swi

223、tzel1and Share 口1dep口sits1口口%Cant口nalbanks C臼Jper吕bvebanks C3 Regl口nalbanks 口therbanks UB2 FlGURE A.3 Examples: L。因IProfile Variations by User Type Account Management For one year n川I#OfCO叫。112 1 24 1 ; Payments Cheque Internet interw到wire trans币。 cs#ofcheq胁S# of transfers Sc山主Capg肝inianalysis, 2009

224、 METHODOLOGY 53 59 。15 54 2009 World Retail Bankinq Re阳ctAbout Us CAPGEMINI Capge1ini， one of the worlds foremost providers of consulting, technology and outsourcing services, enables its clients to transform and perform through technologies. Capgemini provides its clients with in日gh臼andcapabilities

225、 that boost their freedom to achieve superior results through a unique way of working-the Collaborative Business Experience and through a global delivery model called Rightshore气whichaims to offer the right resources in the right location at competitive cost. Present in more than 30 countries, Capge

226、mini reported 2008 global revenues of舌8.7bil1ion and employs over 92,000 people worldwide. More information is available at Leveraging deep industry expertise with the power of advanced Rightshore(global delivery, Capgemini can meet the increasingly sophisticated needs of the financial services sec

227、tor. With a network of15,000 professionals working for more than 900 clients worldwi世，Capgeminis Financial Services sector provides transformational solutions in Banking, 1nsurance and Cital Markets, and provides industry recognized thought leadership For more information 夕nancialservicesUNICREDIT U

228、niCredit GroUD With total asse臼_.r_r_r_ _r_,-more than钮，000bil1ion, ranking among the top financial groups in Europe, UniCredit has a presence in 22 countries, with over 40 mil1ion clien臼andmore 10,000 branches, approximately 177,000 employes at 30 September 2008 1n the CEE region, UniCredit operate

229、s the largest international banking network with over 3,400 branches and out1ets The Group operates in the也1l0wingcountries Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia，日ungary，Latvia, Lithuania, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Poland, Romania, Ru臼ia，Serbia, Slovakia, S

230、lovenia, Turkey and Ukraine For more in也rmation:www.unicreditgroup.eu EUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT & MARKETING ASSOCIATION Efma promotes innovation in retail finance in Europe by fostering debate and discussion among the main players involved in change. Formed in 1971, Efma comprises 2,450 differen

231、t brands in financial services worldwide today, including 80% of the largest European banking groups Through regular events, publications, and its comprehensive website, the association provides retail financial service professionals with answers to their questions about the main issues at stake in

232、their business: multiple distribution strategi白，customer approach, CRM, product and service m盯ketingand lmprovmgpro白tability.Efma is above all a dynamic association, providing a great opportunity for discussion and exchanges without any commercial constraints. 1t provides i臼members with a wide range of exclusive services as well as discount rates on non-gratuitous activities The loyalty of its members as well as their permanent financial support are the best proof of its efficiency For more information: www.f，阳comcapgerr血d UniCredit Group 国CONSU LTI NG. TECH NOLO GY. OUT5 OU RCI NG