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1、1Full Steam Ahead for Global RetailersThe 2014 Global Retail Development Index Full Steam Ahead for Global Retailers In developing markets from South America to Southeast Asia to southern Africa, international retailers and their regional rivals are expanding, buoyed by a more upbeat economy and gro
2、wing retail environments.1Full Steam Ahead for Global RetailersFifteen years ago, global retailers in developing markets were true pioneers: either they held the deed to a beautiful tract of land and a future of growth, or their best-laid plans moldered in a foreign grave. It was a true risk-reward
3、play: global expansion could bring tremendous growth and benefit, or surprising failure and disaster.Todays global retailers get it. They have become more strategic in their expansion and in avoiding the operational pitfalls of entries into developing markets. Using e-commerce, they are pressure-tes
4、ting demand in new markets to reduce risk, and they are taking advantage of financial vehicles such as credit cards and cash-on-delivery to help increase demand. The leaders are also identifying the unique challenges of each market, from Indias foreign direct investment policies to Brazils high duti
5、es to Turkeys high credit card regulations. And even after they get a foot in the door in major metropolitan shopping districts, retailers are forced to strategize quickly to capture growth in tier 2 and 3 cities before the field becomes too crowded.The overall theme of A.T. Kearneys 2014 Global Ret
6、ail Development Index is continued expansion. Yes, there were some notable contractions in the past yearWalmart pruned its portfolio in China and Brazil, and Tescos more cautious approach to China included some store closings and a new joint venturebut for the most part retailers are continuing thei
7、r push into developing markets. In particular, regional players are flexing their muscles, using their proximity as a competitive advantage to steal share in neighboring markets. Chiles Falabella and Cencosud have begun aggressive growth plans to widen their footprint across Latin America, and UAE-b
8、ased LuLu Hypermarkets and Majid Al Futtaim have begun expanding in the Gulf region. South African retailers Shoprite and Woolworths have spearheaded Sub-Saharan Africas shift to modern retail, with expansion into Nigeria, Botswana, and Namibia. We expect stiff competition between Western players an
9、d regional retailers to continue in developing markets.The GRDI ranks the top 30 developing countries for retail investment based on several macroeconomic and retail-specific variables (see figure 1 on page 2). In particular, we focus not only on the most successful developing markets today, but als
10、o those that offer the most potential down the road (see appendix: About the Global Retail Development Index on page 23). The GRDIs Windows of OpportunitiesOne of the GRDIs recurring themes is the “window of opportunity” for investing in physical retail in developing markets. Ideally, markets pass t
11、hrough four stages of retail development (opening, peaking, declining, and closing) as they evolve from emerging to mature markets, a process that typically spans five to 10 years. The underlying hypothesis is that the retail window opens when the population becomes wealthier, when logistics start i
12、mproving, when ownership regulations become more friendly to international firms, and when the countrys various economic, political, and social risks settle down to acceptable levels. The window begins to close when shoppers get so sophisticated that more than basic retail investment is required (in
13、 terms of formats and assortments); when logistics are strong enough across the board to no longer serve as a competitive differentiator; when regulations are stable enough that “daring” is no longer necessary in expansion strategies (although a little daring is always needed); and when risks to per
14、sons, property, and principles are low (see figure 2 on page 3).2Full Steam Ahead for Global RetailersSources: Euromoney, Population Data Bureau, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, World Economic Forum, Economist Intelligence Unit, Planet Retail; A.T. Kearney analysisFigure 1 2014 Global Retai
15、l Development Index2014 rank123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930100.060.993.498.599.426.432.478.866.745.483.694.046.056.246.272.375.16.339.626.450.649.833.062.180.026.124.13.88.622.0CountryMarket attractiveness (25%)100.052.557.582.359.835.332.872.668.738.550.238.443.046.933.467.379.1
16、36.76.639.043.043.733.245.954.460.735.521.957.929.5Country risk (25%)13.244.570.317.548.781.579.632.932.272.746.530.761.952.757.729.527.078.892.372.353.565.655.840.42.934.869.575.027.282.3Market saturation (25%)47.3100.032.443.833.286.778.831.743.554.330.246.451.341.359.627.411.167.348.043.429.415.250.521.531.844.135.755.758.818.6Time pressure (25%)65.164.463.460.560.357.555.954.052.852.752.652.450.649.349.249.148.147.346.645.344.2
