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1、NATURAL GAS BASED LIQUID FUELS: POTENTIAL INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE UNITED STATESConducted by: MILES LIGHT Leeds School of Business University of Colorado BoulderJUNE 2014NATURAL GAS BASED LIQUID FUELS:POTENTIAL INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE UNITED STATES1synopsisThis report highlights poten
2、tial investment opportunities related to natural gas liquids. The research was conducted as a project for the Fuel Freedom Foundation.Low natural gas prices and new technology present an opportunity to market and sell liquid fuels in the form of ethanol and methanol to US consumers. Per unit of ener
3、gy, oil is almost four times more expensive than natural gas. This implies a potential arbitrage opportunity to convert natural gas and natural gas liquids into a liquid fuel. In the US, 14.5 million vehicles can currently utilize ethanol fuels. These are so called “Flex Fuel” vehicles, or FFVs. Ano
4、ther 16.1 million FFV “Twins” can utilize ethanol with a software upgrade, and 46.9 million conventional fuel vehicles can potentially be converted for $150$250 each. In all, this represents 77.75 million light duty vehicles, or 31.8% of the national light duty fleet, that would potentially purchase
5、 natural gas liquid fuel, if prices were attractive.The conversion and sale of NG based ethanol to US customers offers relatively high margins compared to other energy-arbitrage efforts, such as LNG exports, because conversion and shipping costs are lower for the local market, and because the replac
6、ed product (gasoline motor fuel) is expensive compared to natural gas. Alongside the core ethanol production opportunity, there are several related supply-chain development projects, such as production facility development, ethanol fuel marketing, fueling station upgrades, blending facility expansio
7、ns, and vehicle update kits.Table 1: potential Fuel Replacement from oil Based to natural Gas Based Liquids (2014)2014 Fleet (Millions)Potential Demand (Mgal)Potential Fuel Sales* ($ Millions)Conventional Fuel Reduction* ($ Millions) FFVs14.678,786$19,154$25,041 FFV Twins16.149,665$21,070$27,545 Con
8、versions46.9428,116$61,294$80,132 Total:77.7546,567$101,518$132,718*Using wholesale price of $2.18/gallon of ethanol. *Using wholesale price of $2.85/gallon of gasoline.oveRviewThe growing surplus of natural gas and natural gas liquids, combined with new technology to convert natural gas into liquid
9、 ethanol or methanol, has created a potential market for non-oil based liquid fuels. A legacy of farm-based policies to encourage corn-based ethanol has created a large segment of vehicles that can now utilize ethanol. Almost all of these vehicles have never actually used a high-ethanol blend (calle
10、d “E85”), due to mostly market barriers that can now be removed. Natural gas based ethanol can be produced and marketed for less than half the cost of regular unleaded fuel, representing an arbitrage opportunity for investors, and an alternative to high-cost gasoline for many American consumers.Nort
11、h AmericAN eNergy Summit2While alternate methods of using natural gas in vehicles have emerged in developing countries, such as compressed natural gas in India and Asia the US market for CNG is narrow but growing. Ethanol, on the other hand, can be utilized by a large segment of the vehicle fleet to
12、day (gasoline). Compared to gasoline, ethanol has a major asset. It is contains high levels of octane, leading to improved vehicle performance. The energy content in ethanol is slightly lower than unleaded gasoline, so that more fuel must be injected per mile travelled, which leads to slightly lower
13、 mileage. These contradictory attributes have contributed to the confusion over ethanol fuels in the US marketplace. If a low-cost alternative to oil-based fuel would become available and accessible, consumers would begin to consider switching to a low cost option.Low cost ethanol and methanol is ma
14、de possible by a new enzyme and chemical technologies that convert natural gas into pure ethanol According to Coskata and Celanese corporations, the marginal cost of ethanol is reported to be $1.25 (Coskata) to - $2.35 (Celanese) per gallon, when natural gas feedstocks are $4.00 per million British
15、Thermal Units (mmbtu). When blended to create (E85), a common fuel mix consisting of 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline, the net cost would be approximately $1.65 per gallon (if the ethanol cost is $1.50). This is possible because natural gas is currently far less expensive per unit of energ
16、y (BTU) than oil ($4.50/ mmbtu for natural gas vs. $18.20/mmbtu for oil).Some states are better positioned to leverage NG-based fuels than others. Midwestern states, such as Illinois and Indiana, already have a deep infrastructure for ethanol-based distribution and sale, and the population is more familiar with ethanol liquid fuel, due to legacy corn promotion efforts. However, natural gas supplies that are needed to produce ethanol in the
