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1、 Equity Research 15 November 2004 Global Telecommunications Equipment MARKET WEIGHT Next-generation Wireless NEW TECHNOLOGIES TO INCREASE MARKET CONFUSION/COMPETITION Technologies such as WiMax, OFDM, TD-CDMA and TD-SCDMA are set to compete with existing WCDMA/CDMA 1X networks for the future of high
2、-speed mobile data by claiming to offer significant improvements in speeds/costs versus the incumbent technologies. BUT DONT BELIEVE THE HYPE After conducting a comprehensive technology review of the various standards, we present what we see as a realistic view of each of their capabilities, strengt
3、hs and weaknesses. Ultimately, capabilities will not differ markedly when comparing on a like-for-like basis, limiting the potential for the new technologies. INSTALLED BASE STILL KEY FOR EQUIPMENT SUPPLIERS Suppliers with a large installed base of WCDMA/CDMA 1X should maintain a competitive advanta
4、ge owing to continuing technology upgrades to HSDPA/HSUPA and EV-DO/EV-DV. We highlight Ericsson for WCDMA and Lucent for CDMA 1X as leaders in this context. FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION relating to analyst certification, please refer to the Disclosure Appendix. For information relating to t
5、he Firms rating system, valuation methods and potential conflicts of interest regarding companies that are the subject of this report, please visit or call +1 (877) 291-2683. U.S. Regulatory Disclosure: CSFB does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result,
6、investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Customers of CSFB in the United States can receive independent, third party res
7、earch on the company or companies covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at or call 1 877 291 2683 or email to request a copy of this research.research team European Telecom Equipment Eiji Aono 44 20 7883 6884 K
8、ulbinder Garcha 44 20 7888 0737 David Weinbaum 44 20 7883 6886 North American Wireless Equipment Mike Ounjian 1 212 325 5726 North American Wireline Equipment Paul Silverstein 1 212 325 5290 Angelo Liberatore 1 212 538 6176 European Capital Goods Julian Mitchell 44 20 7883 6893 Source: CSFB Re
9、search. Next-generation Wireless 15 November 2004 2 Table of contents Executive summary.4 Ten themes for the next decade of wireless technology.5 1) Key technology conclusions.5 2) Faster speeds yes, but do not believe the hype.6 3) Three key drivers of high-speed mobile networks.7 4) When? Starting
10、 now but lasting through the next decade.7 5) Spectrum/government policies just as important as technology.8 6) Device availability will be crucial and delays are possible .8 7) Installed base key for WCDMA and CDMA upgrades.10 8) Voice competition to increase, shift to data necessary .11 9) Disrupt
11、ive technologies? Perhaps, but do not write off WCDMA/CDMA .13 10) Fixedmobile convergence accelerating.16 Company implications/conclusions .19 Alcatelweak WCDMA position a longer-term concern.19 Ericssoninstalled base a longer-term strategic advantage .19 Lucentlack of European installed base highl
12、ights relative importance of Cingular UMTS success.19 Motorolasubstantial opportunity for long-term differentiation.20 Nokiastrengthening its position in the move to WCDMA .21 Nortela diversified vendor, both geographically and technologically.21 Qualcomm3G expansion story intact over next 57 years.22 Siemenscovering the bases.22 UTStarcomEmerging markets positi
