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1、Green power 2012: The KPMG renewable energy M mammoth infrastructure spending plans in regions as diverse as Latin America, Africa and India; increasing identification of renewables as a mature asset class by financial investors; deployment and uptake of technologies such as offshore wind . the list
2、 goes on. The team and I have been working on our annual renewable energy M and with hydro, onshore wind and solar PV technologies more than 70% agree. To confirm this growing perception of the industrys maturity, as well as perhaps the paucity of alternative investments, survey respondents identifi
3、ed that infrastructure and PE funds would be second only to independent power producers (IPPs) as an investor class in renewables in the next 18 months (notably ahead of utilities), and that less than 10% of funds would either have minimal or no activity. Looking ahead to 2012 and beyond To what ext
4、ent do you agree that the following renewable energy assets are attractive to investors seeking long term low risk returns, such as pension or infrastructure funds? (All respondents) 7% 9% 12% 17% 17% 25% 33% 47% 49% 47% 54% 63% 51% 52% 37% 35% 35% 26% 18% 22% 13% 9% 6% 6% 3% 2% 2% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30%
5、 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Offshore wind Solar thermal Biomass Solar PV Onshore wind All Hydro Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Green power 2012: The KPMG renewable energy M and the various investments in ACSs CSP assets by GE, RREEF, Antin and KGAL). However, recent announcements
6、suggest that the spectre of retroactivity appears to have returned in 2012, and this is certainly spooking potential investors. Liam OKeeffe, Managing Director and Head of Project Finance at Crdit Agricole explains: “There is a danger that governments, particularly in difficult times, start to revie
7、w where they can cut. If subsidies are too great they may feel that this is an easy win. What happened in Spain was a shock.” The deals described are characterised by the recycling of assets primarily from domestic developers, construction companies and private equity investors to long term owners o
8、f assets seeking a low risk/low return type yield. The deals are vital to ensure the financial health and continued origination activity of the primary participants and are predicated on the continued existence of incumbent project level finance facilities following the change of ownership and low (
9、or no) tariff risk. Investors outside of Europe may take comfort from the fact that retroactivity appears to be principally a European issue, but in any market where governments seek to move goal posts on which investors have based their investment decisions, the risk to that market is profound. In
10、the wider energy sector, the Argentine Governments decision to renationalise YPF is an indication if it were needed that a perceived re-positioning of Government policy is not merely a European issue. Governments know that retroactivity undermines confidence. However, if governments face no alternat
11、ive but to reduce the future cost burden from historic renewables installations, then perhaps a single, short, sharp, and fair shock will minimise systemic long term asset issues and investor distrust. 17 | Green power 2012: The KPMG renewable energy M seeing it as essential to continued growth in t
12、he sector. Our survey results show that 73% of respondents expect new build to remain steady as costs are rapidly falling and grid parity is expected to be achieved for leading technologies within a few years (at least in certain sectors). Likewise, whilst renewables has arguably experienced its tou
13、ghest political and economic challenges in recent months, the industry believes that support for the sector across the board remains strong and will continue to deliver growth. To what extent do you agree that new build will remain steady as costs are rapidly falling and grid parity is expected to b
14、e achieved for leading technologies within a few years? (All respondents) 59%59% 14%14% 3%3% 24%24% Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree If renewables are to continue progressing, the next decade must be dominated by the race to remove subsidies Green power 2012: The KPMG renewable energy
15、 M the fixed nature encourages an early interplay between tariff and market prices.” 73%73% of respondents expect new build to remain steady as costs are rapidly falling and grid parity is expected to be achieved for leading technologies 19 | Green power 2012: The KPMG renewable energy M Danish util
16、ity DONG Energy seems particularly busy, while Vattenfall recently acquired the Sandbank 24 offshore wind farm situated in German waters. Several more major utilities are seeking further offshore wind projects to construct over the coming years. In parallel certain utilities have recently taken to divesting stakes in offshore wind projects. For example DONG Energy has divested around 50%
