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1、 ? ?600054? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 2015-2017 ? EPS ? 0.61/0.88/1.12 ?+0.02/0.13/0.20 ? ? ? ? ? 35xPE? 2016 ? 30.8 ? ? ? ? G20 ? ? ? ? 70 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?2016 ? ?2014 ? ? 7 ? ? 1.5 ? ? ? ? ? ?+? ? ? ? ? 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E ? 1,294 1,490 1,596 1,804 2,015 (+/-)% -30% 15% 7% 13% 12%
2、 ?EBIT? 278 374 469 648 804 (+/-)% -27% 34% 25% 38% 24% ? 144 209 306 438 556 (+/-)% -40% 46% 46% 43% 27% ? 0.29 0.42 0.61 0.88 1.12 ? 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 ? 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E ?(%) 21.5% 25.1% 29.4% 35.9% 39.9% ?(%) 7.1% 9.4% 12.6% 15.8% 17.3% ?(%) 10.0% 12.9% 15.4% 19.9% 22.3% EV/EB
3、ITDA 24.7 20.0 17.4 13.1 10.6 ? 76.6 52.6 36.0 25.2 19.8 ? (%) 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% ?2016.02.25 ? ? ? ? ? ?30.80?27.36 ?22.88? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?%?0%8%17%25%34%42%1m3m12m? ?52 ?14.09-26.77 ?11,399? ? ?2013A2014A2015E2016E2017E ?1,2941,4901,5961,8042,015 ?683763757782844 ?6672829
4、2103 ?2017222323 ?247263267259241 EBIT278374469648804 ?00000 ?-21344 ?4439221710 ?231325450634797 ?7185127172212 ?1813293946 ?144209306438556 ? ? ?318294409602842 ?44000 ?6870707070 ?1,8691,9831,9791,9751,970 ?138132121118114 ?3,3553,4323,4963,7414,067 ?1,2101,0951,1061,1221,092 ?8986545659 ?2,0312,
5、2212,4282,7663,222 ?(IC)1,9372,0892,2112,3972,663 ? NOPLAT194270340476595 ?142143117118118 ?-14960-8258-125 ?-177-207-91-95-93 ?9266284556496 ?241409410532575 ?-176-206-88-92-89 ?-79-226-207-248-247 ?-14-24115193240 ? ? ?-29.7%15.1%7.1%13.0%11.7% EBIT ?-27.3%34.5%25.3%38.2%24.0% ?-40.1%45.5%46.4%42.
6、9%27.0% ? ?47.2%48.8%52.6%56.7%58.1% EBIT ?21.5%25.1%29.4%35.9%39.9% ?11.1%14.0%19.2%24.3%27.6% ? ?(ROE)7.1%9.4%12.6%15.8%17.3% ?(ROA)4.3%6.1%8.8%11.7%13.7% ?(ROIC)10.0%12.9%15.4%19.9%22.3% ? ?455406406406406 ?1310101010 ?950831792732707 ?1.671.961.341.221.03 ?/?14%14%6%5%5% ? ?38.7%34.4%33.2%31.5%2
7、8.3% ?-2.6%-4.1%-8.5%-14.3%-19.6% ? PE76.652.636.025.219.8 PB5.14.74.33.83.2 EV/EBITDA24.720.017.413.110.6 P/S8.17.06.55.85.2 ?0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9% ?-12%3%18%33%48%63%2015/2 2015/5 2015/8 2015/11-32%-16%1%18%35%52%? ?-30%-16%-2%12%26%40%13A14A15E16E17E? ?0%4%9%13%18%22%13A14A15E16E17E? ?-632-505-379-253-126013A14A15E16E17E-20%-16%-12%-8%-4%0%?1. ?. 4 1.1. ?. 4 1.2. ?+G20 ?. 5 1.3. ?. 6 1.4. ?. 7 1.5. ?. 7 1.6. ?. 9 2. ?. 10 2.1. ?. 10 2.2. ?.11 2.3. ?.11 3. ?. 12 3.1. ?. 12 3.2. ?. 13 3.3. ?. 15 3.4.
