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1、Global LNG Will new demand and new supply mean new pricing?Introduction and suContentsIntroduction and summary02Global natural gas and LNG demandLNG supplyThe overarching economic issues costs and pricingOther risks and challengesHow can EY help?0408121718Global LNG: will new demand and new supply m
2、ean new pricing?2? gas (LNG) plant at Arzew in Algeria in 1964, the modern global LNG industry is approaching its 50th birthday in 2014.1 A massive amount of new LNG capacity has been proposed as much as 350 million (metric) tonnes per year (mtpa) which, if all were built, would more than double cur
3、rent capacity (of less than 300 mtpa) by 2025. Even with reasonably strong demand growth, this implies growing supply-side competition and upward pressures on development costs and downward pressures on natural gas prices. Nevertheless, the very positive longer-term outlook for natural gas is drivin
4、g investment decisions, both in terms of buyers willingness to sign long-term contracts and sellers willingness to commit capital to develop the needed projects.LNG demand growth is front-loaded, but in the wake of a capacity surge over the last few years, capacity growth is now back-loaded. We are
5、? capacity additions, pointing to relatively tight markets over the next few years. LNG development costs have been rising at a torrid pace, and with LNG demand shifting to new, more price-sensitive customers just as the supply side battles with rising costs and increasing competition, sellers must
6、adapt.The supply/demand magnitudes and dynamics aside, the biggest potential impacts are on LNG pricing: namely, will oil-price linkages continue to dominate global LNG contract pricing, will there be room for spot gas price linkages, and will divergent regional gas prices show signs of convergence?
7、Going forward over the medium to longer term, there will most likely be a gradual but partial migration away from oil-linked pricing to more spot or hub-based pricing. LNG sellers are reluctantly facing the realities of pricing and are offering concessions in order to remain competitive. However, LN
8、G pricing should not collapse, simply because the cost to supply is high and incentives to develop new capacity must be ?!?“?#$%?!? ?;? Louisiana to the UK, leading to the British Gas Councils signing of a 15-year contract for import of LNG from a proposed LNG plant in Algeria. The beginning of the
9、modern LNG age is generally seen as the opening of that Algerian plant. (Source: Deutsche Bank Markets Research, Global LNG, 17 September 2012) F?“?J?!?P?Global LNG Outlook, 10 September 2012Global LNG: will new demand and new supply mean new pricing?3Historic and projected demandTotal global natura
10、l gas demand is estimated to have grown by about 2.7% per year since 2000; however, global LNG demand has risen by an estimated 7.6% per year over the same period, almost three times faster.1 The strong LNG demand growth has been largely driven on a regional perspective by Asia, and from a broader p
11、erspective, underpinned by what analysts at J.P. Morgan termed “durable, investible and politically charged themes.”2 National energy supply security ensuring supply diversity and +?8?! National energy infrastructure renewal to improve system resilience to supply/demand shocks, stimulate investment
12、and reduce unemployment De-carbonization of economic growth as a social imperative, continuing the displacement of coal by natural gas Rising popular opposition to nuclear power generationGlobal gas demand is expected to continue to grow strongly. In its most recent annual World Energy Outlook, the
13、International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast a growing role for natural gas in the worlds energy mix, with the natural gas share growing from 21% in 2010 to 25% in 2035, with natural gas as the only fossil fuel whose share was growing. The IEA sees global natural gas demand growing at about 1.6% per y
14、ear through 2035, more than twice the expected growth rate for oil.3 Some other analysts/ forecasters put gass growth rate even higher.LNG demand growth is, however, expected to be even stronger, particularly through 2020. While a wide range of forecasts exists, a broad consensus of industry analyst
15、s/observers sees average annual growth of around 5% to 6% per year. After 2020, demand growth is expected to continue, albeit at a slightly slower pace (i.e., around 2% to 3% per year) as markets mature, demand shifts to more price-sensitive buyers, and some price subsidies 1 Deutsche Bank Markets Research, Global LNG: Gorgon ? 16 of these have been approved for FTA countries, but only one application, from Chenieres ?8?#?
