济南大学毕业论文-Ⅰ-目 录摘要 ........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT..........................................................................................................................II 1 前言....................................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景与意义.......................................................................................................1 1.2 国内外研究现状......................................................................................................1 2 研究区概况........................................................................................................................3 3 资料和方法........................................................................................................................4 3.1 滑动平均...................................................................................................................4 3.2 线性分析...................................................................................................................4 4 年平均最高气温变化趋势................................................................................................5 4.1 趋势分析...................................................................................................................5 4.2 距平分析...................................................................................................................6 5 季节平均最高气温变化趋势............................................................................................7 5.1 冬季平均最高气温变化趋势..................................................................................7 5.2 冬季各月平均最高气温变化趋势...........................................................................8 5.3 春季平均最高气温变化趋势...................................................................................9 5.4 春季各月平均最高气温变化趋势.........................................................................11 5.5 夏季平均最高气温变化趋势.................................................................................13 5.6 夏季各月平均最高气温变化趋势.........................................................................14 5.7 秋季平均最高气温变化趋势.................................................................................15 5.8 秋季各月平均最高气温变化趋势.........................................................................16 6 月均最高气温逐月变化趋势..........................................................................................18 6.1 各月线性倾向率的变化分析.................................................................................18 6.2 济南市近 30 年月均最高气温距平分析...............................................................19 结论......................................................................................................................................20 参考文献..............................................................................................................................21 致谢......................................................................................................................................22- 0 -济南市月均最高气温的变化趋势分析摘 要本文采用济南市 1951--2007 年逐月平均最高气温的数据资料，运用 5 年滑动平均法进行变化趋势拟合，通过线性分析，距平等数学方法分析了济南市近 60 年来年均、季节和月均最高气温的变化趋势。
分析发现，济南市年年均最高气温的变化以1973 年为界，在这之前呈波动下降趋势，之后则波动上升季节变化以冬季平均最高气温的增加最明显，夏季有微弱下降趋势，春、秋季节则表现微弱的增加趋势近 60 年来，月均最高气温的变化以 1 月至 3 月的增温趋势最明显，其中 2 月增温速率最快；而 5 月至 8 月都呈现一定的降温趋势1 月至 12 月各月平均最高气温的变化大致以 70 年代末为界，80 年代之前多数月份的平均最高气温都低于多年平均值；80 年代至今，多数月份的平均最高气温都高于多年平均值，近 30 年来增温趋势明显关键词：济南市；平均最高气温；滑动平均；变化趋势- 1 -ABSTRACTIn this paper, we used the monthly highest temperature of Jinan city during 1951 and 2007. We used 5-year moving average to fit the trends. We also used mathematical methods like linear analysis and anomalies etc. to analyze the trends of Jinan's recent 60 years' yearly, seasonal and monthly highest temperature. Through analyzing, we found that Jinan's yearly average highest temperature changes take 1973 as a border, before this decline is fluctuation, after the wave rise. The increasing of the average winter maximum temperature are most obvious to seasonal variations and the summer have a weak downward trend, while spring and autumn perform the weak increasing trend. The past 60 years, the average monthly maximum temperature warming trend from January to March were the most obvious, especially February was the fastest of warming rate; but May to August showed the downward trend. The late 1970s was regarded as the boundary of the change of the average maximum temperature of each month from January to December. Before the 1980s, the average maximum temperature of most months was lower than the average of many years. Since the 1980s, the average maximum temperature of most months is higher than the average for many years. The warming trend of the past 30 years is obvious.Key words：：Jinan City; average maximum temperature; moving average; trends- 2 -1 1 前言1.1 研究背景与意义近年来，随着社会经济的快速发展，人类活动对自然环境的影响日益加剧，极端气象事件更加频繁。
在如今全球变暖的背景下，我国北方地区气。