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1、Sugar Industry / Zuckerindustrie 135 (2010) No. 1, 2936291 IntroductionIn the sugar marketing year (MY: October September) 2008/09, the world market price increased to a level which it had not been at since the beginning of the 1980s. The prices for grains and oilseeds, however, which had already ed
2、ged upward in 2007 and in the beginning of 2008, declined in the second half of 2008. Differ- ent market forecasts predict an undersupply of sugar in the world market and therefore high sugar prices in MY 2009/10. In the European Union, the last phase of the reform of the Common Market Organization
3、(CMO), which began in 2006, was imple- mented. The reference price level of white sugar has been reduced to a final price of EUR404.40 per t; however, the actual market price follows the reduction with a distinct delay. In the last round of restructuring, three member states returned minor amounts o
4、f * A German version of this article will be published in the first supplement of the German Journal of Agricultural Economics (Agrarwirtschaft) in 2010.Developments in the EU and world sugar markets in 2009*Entwicklung des EU- und Weltmarktes fr Zucker 2009Stephan Nolte and Harald GretheIn diesem A
5、rtikel werden die wichtigsten Entwicklungen auf dem Zuckermarkt im Jahr 2009 beschrieben. Nach einer kurzen Einlei- tung wird eine bersicht ber Produktion und Verbrauch in den verschiedenen Regionen der Erde gegeben. Probleme in wichtigen Erzeugerlndern haben zu einem Anstieg des Weltmarktpreises au
6、f ein 28-Jahreshoch gefhrt. Fr die laufende Kampagne wird ein weiteres Defizit erwartet. Das folgende Kaptitel beschftigt sich mit den Entwicklungen auf dem EU-Zuckermarkt, wo die Imple- mentierungsphase der 2006 begonnenen Reform beendet wurde und eine neue Regelung fr Zuckerimporte aus den AKP-Sta
7、aten in Kraft trat. Im letzten Kapitel werden einige modellbasierte Pro- jektionen des Zuckermarktes fr das kommende Jahrzehnt sowie die mittelfristigen Faktoren, die die Entwicklung von Produktion und Verbrauch bestimmen, diskutiert.Stichwrter: Zuckermarkt, EU, Weltmarkt, Zuckererzeugung, Zu- ckerv
8、erbrauchThe article reviews the developments on the sugar market in 2009. After the introduction, it starts with an overview of production and consumption in all world regions. Production shortfalls in major producing countries led to an increase of the world market price to a 28 year high. For the
9、current season, a further deficit is ex- pected. The next chapter informs about developments on the EU market, where the implementation phase of the 2006 reform ended and a new regulation for sugar imports from ACP countries entered into force. The last chapter discusses model based forecasts of the
10、 world sugar market over the coming decade and determining fac- tors of the medium term development of production and consump- tion of sugar.Key words: sugar market, EU, world sugar market, sugar produc- tion, consumptionTable 1: World sugar balance (mn t, raw value)MY (October/September)2005/06 200
11、6/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10Opening stocks 61.6 64.1 72.4 73.7 63.1 Production 151.5 167.5 166.7 153.3 159.7 Imports 54.3 51.5 50.8 53.8 58.4 Disappearance 147.2 154.1 159.5 161.2 165.4 Exports 56.1 56.6 56.6 56.7 58.7 Ending stocks 64.1 72.4 73.7 63.1 57.0 Stocks:Consumption 43.5 47.0 46.2 39.1 34.
12、5in %Source: F.O. Licht Commodity Analysis (2009a).quota for the production of isoglucose1 into the restructuring fund. This was in addition to approximately 132,000 t of sugar from Spain, which was already announced last year. With the beginning of the MY 2008/09, the transition period of the “Ever
13、ything But Arms” initiative for sugar imports from least developed countries (LDC) ended, allowing these countries to ex- port raw and refined sugar into the EU without restrictions of quo- tas and tariffs. Due to the currently high world market price level, however, the attractiveness of the EU mar
14、ket for exporters in these countries has declined significantly.2 The world market for sugarThe global sugar production of the MY 2008/09 fell behind the worldwide consumption for the first time since 2004/05. F.O. Licht Commodity Analysis (2009a) estimates worldwide sugar produc- tion in 2008/09 at
15、 153.3 mn t and consumption at 161.2 mn t (see Table 1). This results in a deficit of almost 8 mn t. The Internation- al Sugar Organization (ISO), on the other hand, reports a deficit of 11.3 mn t for the MY 2008/09 (various issues-a). This deficit is far beyond forecasts of leading market observers
16、, all of which predicted a deficit at the beginning of the MY, however, clearly underestimated the deficit as their estimates were between 1 to 4 mn t (see overview in Nolte and Grethe, 2009). Therefore, forecasts Sugar Industry / Zuckerindustrie 135 (2010) No. 1, 293630for global production had to be adjusted downwards in a stepwise manner over the course of the MY (Agra Europe Weekly, various issues). The deficit in 2008/09 is also si
