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1、Allens is an independent partnership operating in alliance with Linklaters LLP. Trends in International LNG Anthony Patten, Partner, Allens Presentation to AMPLA State Conference Fremantle, Western Australia 18 May 2012 Overview 2 3/11 and Fukushima State of the key LNG markets Australias escalating
2、 role in LNG production The competition Qatar The competition North America Conclusions Shift away from nuclear Japans LNG demand expected to rise from 70 mtpa in 2010 to 82 mtpa in 2012 LNG imports hit a monthly all time record in January 2012 (8.2 mtpa) China, Korea and Taiwan remain Japans major
3、competitors for LNG supply Korea, as an example, is experiencing significant growth in LNG demand 2011 imports already at anticipated 2015 levels Tightening of the LNG shipping market 3/11 and Fukushima 3 Shale gas Henry hub pricing at historic lows Nymex Henry Hub futures at US$2.51 / MMBtu on 15 M
4、ay close Significant unutilised regasification capacity Arbitrage opportunities State of the key LNG markets - US 4 UK NBP pricing (spot price at 14 May = US$9.22 / MMBtu) European gas pricing delinkage of gas and oil Demand expected to grow Need for new infrastructure (gas storage, pipelines) Euroz
5、one issues State of the key LNG markets - Europe 5 Growing demand in Asia Typical pricing at approximately US$15 / MMBtu Some evidence of S curves setting floor and ceiling Underpinned by strong, sustained demand in: Japan Korea China India State of the key LNG markets Asia 6 Australias escalating r
6、ole in LNG production 2011 FIDs Gladstone LNG APLNG Wheatstone Prelude Ichthys Donggi Senoro (Indonesia) 7 Australian LNG production likely to surpass Qatar by 2017 Australia, Qatar, Russia, Iran and Nigeria to account for 75% of global LNG capacity by 2020 Australias escalating role in LNG producti
7、on 8 The competition - Qatar 9 2 operating entities: QatarGas; and RasGas Qatar Petroleum role Total current export capacity: 77.1 mtpa Oil and gas revenue accounts for 60% of GDP Moratorium on further development of the North Field until at least 2014 QatarGas 10 Project Participants Capacity (mtpa
8、) First gas Primary offtake QatarGas 1 Qatar Petroleum (65% ) ExxonMobil (10%) Mitsui (7.5%) Marubeni (7.5%) 9.6 1996 Japan, Spain QatarGas 2 Qatar Petroleum (70%) ExxonMobil (30%) 15.6 2009 UK, Europe, Asia QatarGas 3 Qatar Petroleum (68.5% ) ConocoPhillips (30%) Mitsui (1.5%) 7.8 2010 US, Asia, Eu
9、rope QatarGas 4 Qatar Petroleum (70%) Shell (30%) 7.8 2011 US, Asia, Europe TOTAL CAPACITY 40.8 RasGas 11 Project Capacity (mtpa) First gas Primary offtake Trains 1 and 2 6.6 1999 Korea Trains 3, 4 and 5 14.1 2004 - 2007 India, Europe Trains 6 and 7 15.6 2009 US TOTAL CAPACITY 36.3 Each project owne
10、d and operated under incorporated joint venture structure between: Qatar Petroleum (70%); and ExxonMobil (30%) Qatari LNG supply essential features 12 Qatar Petroleum controls all projects QatarGas Operating Company markets all LNG from QatarGas projects Qatari presence throughout value chain (inclu
11、ding shipping and regasification) 100 % of offtake typically sold to IOC partner Significant focus on US markets as baseline Qatari LNG supply essential features 13 Significant seller diversion rights Target Asian oil-linked pricing Contracts facilitate short and long term diversions (eg US to Asia)
12、 Largely DES sales using large vessels Relatively onerous LNG SPA terms English or New York law International arbitration The competition North America 14 Shale gas production Henry Hub pricing Stranded regasification assets LNG re-export LNG export Project Participants Location Expected Capacity Pr
13、ogress Sabine Pass Liquefaction Sabine Pass Liquefaction, LLC (Cheniere Energy Partners) Cameron Parish, Louisiana 16 mtpa FERC & DOE approved Kitimat LNG KM LNG Operating General Partnership (Apache Canada Ltd) (40% - Operator) EOG Resources Canada Inc (30%) Encana Corporation (30%) Kitimat, Britis
14、h Columbia 5 mtpa 20 year Export Licence issued by National Energy Board Douglas Channel BC LNG Export Co-operative LLC LNG Partners HN DC LNG LP Douglas Channel Energy Partnership DCEP Gas Management Kitimat, British Columbia 1.8 mtpa 20 year Export Licence issued by National Energy Board Approved
15、North American LNG export projects 15 Proposed North American LNG export projects 16 Project Participants Location Expected Capacity Progress Corpus Christi Liquefaction Corpus Christi Liquefaction, LLC (Cheniere Energy Partners) San Patricio County, Texas 13.5 mtpa FERC pre-filing review initiated Jordan Cove LNG Project Veresen Inc Coos County, Oregon 6 mtpa FERC pre-filing status granted Cameron LNG Cameron LNG (affiliate of Sempra LNG) Hackberry, Louisiana 12 mtpa DOE authorisation granted (US-FTA countr
