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1、 TYPES OF JOBS LOST AND GAINED 2000 - 2006 Prepared for: The United States Conference of Mayors Prepared by: Global Insight 24 Hartwell Avenue Lexington, MA 02421 June 21, 2004 Published by Global Insight, Inc. Executive and Editorial Offices: 24 Hartwell Avenue, Lexington, MA 02421 2004 by Global I
2、nsight, Inc. Reproduction in whole or in part prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved. Global Insight 1 INTRODUCTION In November 2003, Global Insight and the U.S. Conference of Mayors published “Types of Jobs Lost and Gained 2001-2005,” which examined the quality of jobs lost and gained
3、 over this business cycle. The report highlighted a wage gap of almost 18% between the jobs lost from the beginning of the recession through mid-2003, and those that were forecasted to return over the following two years. The average annual wage of $43,629 in the sectors that lost jobs during the 20
4、0103 period, would not be matched by the average wage of $35,855 in those sectors adding jobs through 2005. Job gains would come in those sectors where wages average only 82% of those in the sectors hit hard by the recession. This gap r e- flected, in part, the higher-than-average wages paid in the
5、declining manufacturing sectors. Many of those manufacturing jobs and others lost in the information sector, had been sent overseas due to outsourcing, or due to firm and plant closings because of oversupply as demand waned. During the 200103 period, annual wages lost in the declining sectors to- ta
6、led $182 billion, $26 billion higher than the annual wages we projected would be earned in the advancing sectors. THE WAGE GAP The United States is another six months into its recovery. Our analysis of the current data indicates that over the 2000-2006 period, the wage gap remains practically the sa
7、me be- tween the jobs lost and jobs forecasted to return. Figure 1 below examines the composition of wages in the ten sectors that lost the most jobs during the downturn and the ten sectors that will lead the employment recovery. The number of jobs gained from 2004 to 2006 will exceed the number of
8、jobs lost from 2000-03. The average wage of the jobs in the ten sec- tors with the greatest job gains, however, will be more than 15% lower than those of the jobs that were lost in the top ten losing sectors. FIGURE 1: QUALITY VS. QUANTITY Analysis of Top Ten Sectors Jobs Lost (2000 to 2003) 5,197,4
9、42 Average Wage of Jobs Lost $45,020 Jobs Gained (2004 to 2006) 5,610,100 Average Wage of Jobs Gained $38,100 The average annual wage in all sectors which lost jobs, $43,950, will not be matched by the average wage of jobs in the growing sectors between 2004 and 2006, $38,839. This wage gap of 12% i
10、mplies that the long-awaited payroll expansion, while surely welcome, will bring income gains which average only 88% of incomes lost during the employment con- traction. The wages lost due to this gap amount to $27 billion per year. This 2001-2003 downturn was notable in its breadth, across sectors
11、and occupations. Al- most all regions, states, and metro areas suffered declines. Many high-wage technical and professional occupations were affected by job losses and layoffs in both the high tech and finance sectors. Figure 2 shows a breakdown of the ten sectors with the highest job losses from th
12、e fourth quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2003. As previously reported, the largest losses were in the manufacturing and technology sectors. All but two of the top ten sectors are also relatively high-paying. Prompted by the national recession, many of the losses in these metros were the res
13、ult of outsourcing, mergers, and downsizing. Competi- tion from cheaper goods made overseas forced manufacturers to cut costs, resulting in Global Insight 2 manufacturers shutting U.S. operations and either opening plants in foreign countries or contracting with foreign manufacturers to produce good
14、s. Cost-cutting also induced mergers in the finance and communications sectors, resulting in layoffs. FIGURE 2: TOP TEN JOBS LOST (2000Q4 TO 2003Q4) Employment Sector Total Job Losses Average Annual Wages Durables Manufacturing 2,015,024 $46,856 Nondurables Manufacturing 887,264 $40,763 Information
15、585,526 $57,329 Retail Trade 411,555 $23,999 Administration it was an average of 1.5 months in 1999. FIGURE 5: HEALTH BENEFITS, 20002006 Employment Sector Percent Covered 200003 Employment Change 200306 Employment Change Construction 68 -10,200 +513,200 Manufacturing 81 -2,946,100 -60,000 Transporta
16、tion, Comm, Utilities 77 -492,900 +323,400 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 73 +223,800 +285,100 Retail and WholesaleTrade 45 -136,600 +719,100 Services 64 +995,100 +3,112,600 Government 82 +712,200 +423,800 Average Benefit Coverage 79.0% 64.5% Note: Due to differences in survey design and classification these Kaiser survey results do not reconcile exactly with the BLS statistics of the previous section. Figure
