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1、Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2014BEYOND THE MIDDLE-INCOME TRAPEconomic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2014BEYOND THE MIDDLE-INCOME TRAPThe Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2014: Beyond the Middle-income Trap presents a medium-term (five year)
2、economic outlook for Emerging Asia, a specific focus on the middle-income trap and an assessment of national structural policy reforms and medium-term development plans. The report highlights the fact that economies in the region will remain resilient in the next five years, supported by the growing
3、 strength of domestic demand. It also calls for greater efforts in the push for further economic integration in ASEAN, in particular in the areas of human capital development and poverty. ContentsChapter 1. Medium-term economic outlook for Emerging Asia: Prospects and assessmentsChapter 2. Structura
4、l policy country notes for Emerging Asia Chapter 3. Policy priorities for growing beyond the middle-income trap in Emerging Asiawww.oecd.org/site/seaoEconomic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2014 Beyond the Middle-Income Trap2Medium-term economic outlook: Prospects and assessmentsThe eco
5、nomic outlook in Emerging Asia (Southeast Asia, China and India) remains robust over the medium term, anchored by the steady rise in domestic demand. Real GDP growth in Emerging Asian economies is projected to be moderating gradually but remains robust over the 2014-18 period, according to the resul
6、ts of the OECD Development Centres Medium-Term Projection Framework (MPF-2014) for this 2014 edition of the Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India. As a whole, the Emerging Asian economies are expected to grow by 6.9% per annum in 2014-18. It is a robust pace, albeit less than the 8.6%
7、 registered before the global financial crisis (2000-07). This slower rate of growth largely reflects the moderate rates of expansion in the two large Emerging Asian economies of China and India. In the Southeast Asian region, growth will remain robust in the medium term, growing at a pace which is
8、comparable to the pre-global financial crisis. The real GDP growth rate in the Southeast Asian region is projected to average 5.4% per annum between 2014-18, against 5.5% in 2000-07 (Table 0.1).Table 0.1. Real GDP growth of Southeast Asia, China and India (annual percentage change)201220182014-18200
9、0-07ASEAN-6 countries Brunei Darussalam 1.02.42.3-Indonesia6.26.16.05.1Malaysia5.65.35.15.5Philippines6.85.95.84.9Singapore1.33.13.36.4Thailand6.55.34.95.1CLMV countriesCambodia7.27.16.89.6Lao PDR7.97.57.76.8Myanmar-7.06.8-Viet Nam5.26.05.47.6Average of ASEAN 105.5(*)5.65.45.5(*)2 large economies in
10、 Emerging AsiaChina7.77.57.710.5India 3.76.15.97.1Average of Emerging Asia6.46.96.98.6Notes: The cut-off date for data is 6 September 2013. Emerging Asia includes ASEAN 10 countries plus China and India. * Excluding Myanmar, * Excluding Brunei Darussalam and Myanmar.3The GDP growth projections for i
11、ndividual countries reflect their different stages of development and medium-term growth drivers. Indonesia is projected to be the fastest-growing economy within the ASEAN-6, with an average annual growth rate of 6.0% in 2014-18, followed by the Philippines with 5.8%. These projected medium-term gro
12、wth rates are considerably higher than the average growth prior to the global financial crisis (5.1% and 4.9% respectively). The strong medium-term economic outlook for Indonesia and the Philippines will be underpinned by robust growth in domestic demand, strong infrastructure spending and implement
13、ation of structural economic reforms. Led by rising growth in domestic demand, especially in infrastructure investment and private consumption, real GDP in Malaysia and Thailand is projected to grow by an average annual rate of 5.1% and 4.9%, respectively, over the period 2014-18. While their projec
14、ted growth rates compare favourably to those of other developing countries at similar stages of economic development, both Malaysia and Thailand should improve their productivity in order to grow beyond the middle-income trap. Singapores economy is projected to grow by 3.3% per annum over the period
15、 2014-18. The rate of growth reflects the countrys more advanced stage of economic development as its economy shifts towards more sustainable, inclusive growth led by rising productivity and innovation. The CLMV countries (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Viet Nam) are projected to grow at a robust pa
16、ce over the medium term, led by Lao PDR at 7.7% per annum. Real GDP growth in Cambodia and Myanmar is projected to average close to 7% between 2014-18, underscoring the significant improvement in these countries investment appeal as they open up to foreign investment. As for Viet Nam, while its real GDP is projected to remain robust in the medium term, growth will be slower than prior to the global financial crisis because of slower external de
