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1、Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook (STEO) ? Highlights? ? ? ?EIA? projects? average? U.S.? household? expenditures? for? natural? gas,? heating? oil,? electricity,? and? propane? will? decrease? this? winter? heating? season? (October? 1? through? March? 31)? compared? with? last? winter,? w
2、hich? was? 11%? colder? than? the? previous? 10?year? average? nationally.? ? Projected? average? household? expenditures? for? propane? and? heating? oil? are? 27%? and? 15%? lower,? respectively,? because? of? lower? heating? demand? and? prices.? Lower? heating? demand? and? higher? prices? contr
3、ibute? to? natural? gas? and? electricity? expenditures? that? are? 5%? and? 2%? lower? than? last? winter? (see? EIA? Short?Term? Energy? Outlook? and? Winter? Fuels? Outlook? slideshow).? ? ?Driven? in? large? part? by? falling? crude? oil? prices,? U.S.? regular? gasoline? retail? prices? fell? t
4、o? an? average? of? $3.41/gallon? (gal)? in? September,? 29? cents? below? the? June? average.? ? U.S.? regular? gasoline? retail? prices? are? projected? to? continue? to? decline? to? an? average? of? $3.14/gal? in? December.? ? EIA? expects? U.S.? regular? gasoline? retail? prices,? which? averag
5、ed? $3.51/gal? in? 2013,? to? average? $3.45/gal? in? 2014? and? $3.38/gal? in? 2015.? ? ?Weakening? global? demand? helped? North? Sea? Brent? crude? oil? spot? prices? fall? to? an? average? of? $97? per? barrel? (bbl)? in? September,? the? first? month? Brent? prices? have? averaged? below? $100/
6、bbl? in? more? than? two? years.? ? EIA? projects? that? Brent? crude? oil? prices? will? average? $98/bbl? in? fourth?quarter? 2014? and? $102/bbl? in? 2015.? ? The? WTI? discount? to? Brent,? which? averaged? $11/bbl? in? 2013,? is? expected? to? average? $7/bbl? in? both? 2014? and? 2015.? ? ?Tot
7、al? U.S.? crude? oil? production? averaged? an? estimated? 8.7? million? barrels? per? day? (bbl/d)? in? September,? the? highest? monthly? production? since? July? 1986.? ? Total? crude? oil? production,? which? averaged? 7.4? million? bbl/d? in? 2013,? is? expected? to? average? 9.5? million? bbl/
8、d? in? 2015.? ? If? realized,? the? 2015? forecast? would? be? the? highest? annual? average? crude? oil? production? since? 1970.? Natural? gas? plant? liquids? production? is? expected? to? increase? from? an? average? of? 2.6? million? bbl/d? in? 2013? to? 3.2? million? bbl/d? in? 2015.? ? ?Natur
9、al? gas? working? inventories? on? September? 26? totaled? 3.10? trillion? cubic? feet? (Tcf),? 0.37? Tcf? (11%)? below? the? level? at? the? same? time? a? year? ago? and? 0.40? Tcf? (11%)? below? the? previous? five?year? average? (2009?13).? ? Projected? natural? gas? working? inventories? reach?
10、 3.53? Tcf? at? the? end? of? October,? 0.28? Tcf? below? the? level? at? the? same? time? last? year.? ? Despite? the? lower? stocks? at? the? start? of? this? winters? heating? season,? EIA? expects? the? Henry? Hub? natural? gas?spot? price? to? $4.00/million? British? thermal? units? (MMBtu)? th
11、is? winter? compared? with? $4.53/MMBtu? last? winter.? ? This? price? forecast? reflects? both? lower? expected? heating? demand? and? significantly? higher? natural? gas? production? this? winter.? ? Projected? Winter? Fuel? Expenditures? by? Fuel? and? Region? ? The? average? household? winter? h
12、eating? fuel? expenditures? discussed? in? this? STEO? provide? a? broad? guide? to? changes? compared? with? last? winter.? ? However,? fuel? expenditures? for? individual? households? are? highly? dependent? on? local? weather? conditions,? market? size,? the? size? and? energy? efficiency? of? in
13、dividual? homes? and? their? heating? equipment,? and? thermostat? settings? (see? Winter? Fuels? Outlook? table).? ? Forecast? temperatures? based? on? the? latest? forecasts? from? the? National? Oceanic? and? Atmospheric? Administration? (NOAA)? are? much? warmer? than? last? winter? east? of? th
14、e? Rocky? Mountains,? with? the? Midwest? 16%? warmer,? the? South? 12%? warmer,? the? Northeast? 11%? warmer.? ? However,? last? winter? provides? a? reminder? that? weather? can? be? unpredictable,? and? the? Winter? Fuels? Outlook? includes? forecasts? for? scenarios? where? heating? degree? days
15、? (HDD)? in? all? regions? may? be? 10%? higher? (colder)? or? 10%? lower? (warmer)? than? forecast.? ? ? Natural? Gas.? ? About? half? of? all? U.S.? households? heat? with? natural? gas,? and? the? average? household? may? expect? a? 5%? decrease? in? winter? natural? gas? expenditures.? ? EIA? pr
16、ojects? a? 10%? decline? in? residential? natural? gas? consumption? this? year? as? temperatures? are? expected? to? return? to? closer? to? normal? levels.? ? The? savings? from? lower? consumption? are? partially? offset? by? higher? residential? prices.? ? Although? EIA? forecasts? lower? Henry? Hub? prices? this? winter,? current? spot? prices? do? not? directly? translate? into? lower? delivered? residential? prices.? ? Utilities? began? buying? gas? in? April? for? the? upcoming? heating
