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1、GOLD SURVEY 2014 UPDATE 1TABLE OF CONTENTS1. Summary and Market Outlook 5? Supply 7 ? Demand 7 ? Market Outlook 82. Gold Prices in 2014 9? Price Outlook 103. Investment 13 ? Exchange Traded Funds 14 ? Activity on Commodities Exchanges 15 ? Over-the-Counter Market 15 ? Physical Bar Investment 17 ? Of
2、ficial Coin Sales and Fabrication 18 ? Medals and Imitation Coins 194. Mine Supply 20? Mine Production 20 ? Production Costs 24 ? Producer Hedging 265. Official Sector 276. Scrap Supply 29 7. Fabrication Demand 31? Europe 31 ? North America 33 ? South America 34 ? Middle East 34 ? Indian Sub-Contine
3、nt 36 ? East Asia 378. Price Appendix 40Focus Boxes? Supply and Demand Methodology 6 ? Pricing of Asset Classes, Tapering and the Potential Effectsfor Gold 16 ? Corporate Activity 23 ? CBGA 4; The Implications 28 ? Industrial Demand 395SUMMARY AND MARKET OUTLOOK1. SUMMARY AND MARKET OUTLOOKDemand in
4、 the first half of 2014 was down 26% year- on-year as the initial rally from $1,200/oz to almost $1,400/oz in the first quarter took many retail investors by surprise, consensus opinion having expected another round of price falls at the beginning of 2014. As a result, the price sensitive markets ha
5、ve seen sales slow and we believe it will take prices in a $1,200-1,250/oz range in order for physical buying from Middle Eastern, East and South East Asian markets to begin to increase.The other defining feature of the market since the initial price rally had been a broadly sideways trading price o
6、ver the period from April until the beginning of September, ranging from $1,243/oz to $1,340/oz. This brought price volatility, as measured on a 100 day basis, to its second lowest level since 2005 and consequently undermined Over-the-Counter (OTC) trade volumes. The impact of price on physical dema
7、nd has been pronounced, with jewellery production in China and India down 22% and 18% respectively; while global output fell by 16%. In contrast to last year, many fabricators have also refocused production away from high-carat investment-grade jewellery to lower-carat pieces, often with higher mark
8、-ups, in order to compensate for falling sales. On the physical bar side of the market, declines have been more pronounced at 61% for China, 63% for India and 50% globally. However, the comparisons are from an exceptionally strong base and H1 2014 remains the fourth highest level of bar demand on re
9、cord. Political risk has also added to the disconnect in the market between higher prices and lower demand. Increased investment due to golds safe-haven status has been at odds with falling demand in the plethora of nations affected by conflict this year, either directly or via weaker currencies red
10、ucing purchasing power. Turning to supply, belt tightening at mining companies has resulted in a 6% reduction in total cash costs while primary output continued to increase, up 4%, due to a combination of new mines and the mining of higher ore grades. This increase, however, once again failed to mak
11、e up for the continued fall in scrap supply, which experienced a 9% decline as less material was returned from retail investors and the jewellery sector. Change Change Change (tonnes) 2013 2014F y-o-y 13.H1 13.H2 14.H1 y-o-y 14.H2F y-o-ySupply Mine production 3,054 3,101 1.5% 1,429 1,625 1,481 3.6%
12、1,621 -0.3%Scrap 1,269 1,104 -13.0% 629 640 572 -9.1% 533 -16.8%Net Hedging Supply -46 42 n/a -26 -20 52 n/a -10 51.0%Total Supply 4,277 4,248 -0.7% 2,032 2,245 2,105 3.6% 2,143 -4.5%Demand Jewellery 2,368 2,210 -6.7% 1,274 1,094 1,074 -15.7% 1,135 3.8%Industrial Fabrication 409 396 -3.3% 207 202 19
13、9 -4.1% 197 -2.5%.of which Electronics 280 273 -2.4% 141 138 137 -2.8% 135 -2.1%.of which Dental this is equivalent to approximately 189 times 2013 gold mine production. The equivalent figures for the first six months of 2014 were approximately 263,000 tonnes at $10 trillion, or roughly 178 times mi
14、ne production. So while, by comparison with the bond market, the gold market is very small, it is deep and highly liquid.Changes in known stock levels are also included in the supply-demand balance in order to account for the highly visible moves in Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) holdings and published
15、inventory changes at gold futures exchanges. It is important to note that the resulting Net Balance does not include changes in OTC investment or dis-investment. Changes in ETF holdings are a helpful guide to investment trends in gold, but ultimately only make up a small part of the market.Thomson R
16、euters supply and demand data are collected and collated by our team of research analysts based in Australia, China, Europe, India and the USA within an extensive field research programme which involves interviewing stakeholders across the supply chain in every market and utilising the unique data sets available
