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1、1 Don Smale Secretary-General International Lead and Zinc Study Group International Copper Study Group International Nickel Study Group UNCTAD Multi-year Expert Meeting on Commodities and Development Geneva, 20-21 March 2013 Review and outlook for Copper, Nickel, Lead and Zinc 8 World Copper Reserve
2、s 2011 Resources: about 3000 million tonnes (Mt) 2011 Mine Production 16.03 Mt Reserves 690 Mt Sources: USGS Not to scale contained copper metal International Copper Study Group World Copper Reserves 2011 Breakdown Source: USGS Despite increased consumption of copper produced from ore in recent year
3、s, increases in reserves have grown more, and there is more copper available to the world than at any other time in the past. Mexico accounts for around 6% of World Copper Reserves reported by USGS 9 Chile 28%Peru 13%Australia 12%Mexico 6%United States 5%China 4%Russia 4%Indonesia 4%Poland 4%Zambia
4、3%DRC 3%Canada 1%Kazakstan 1%Other 12%10 Average annual grow rate in the last century: 4% Average annual grow rate in the last decade: 2.1 % Average annual grow rate in the last 3 years: 1.2% Source: ICSG 2012/2014 Main Global Assumptions for Mine Production 11 International Copper Study Group The 2
5、008 crisis had a severe impact on copper projects development and the postponement of many projects: no new major project until 2012. Mine production growth averaged a disappointing 0.9% growth in the period 2008- 2011 (concentrate growth was flat) However smaller and medium size mine projects stare
6、d in 2012 and 2012 production recovered from 2011operational constrains Capacity expansions occurring in Chile, Mexico and Peru Major mine projects start by end 2013 and in 2014 boosting world production (eg. Oyu Tolgoi) The supply constraint factors that have been affecting the copper industry in t
7、he last few years will expected continue to impact supply. World copper mine production expected to grow by around 6% in 2013, after a growth of about 3% in 2012 -2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 000t CuMine sx-ew worldCon
8、centrates world-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 World concentrate production growth World SX-EW production growthSource: ICSG 12 Distribution of Copper Mine Production by Country Chile , 17.2%China , 3.2%Peru , 3.3%United States , 17.2%Australia , 3.5%Russian Fed. , 8.
9、7%Zambia , 4.6%Canada , 8.6%Indonesia , 1.8%Congo , 3.9%Mexico , 3.6%Poland , 3.6%Kazakhstan , 3.4%Iran , 0.7%Brazil , 0.4%Others, 16.3%1990 Chile , 29.3%China , 8.9%Peru , 7.4%United States , 7.2%Australia , 6.3%Russian Fed. , 4.0%Zambia , 4.9%Canada , 3.6%Indonesia , 3.4%Congo , 4.4%Mexico , 3.6%P
10、oland , 2.2%Kazakhstan , 2.0%Iran , 1.6%Brazil , 1.7% Others, 10.0%2014 Chile to continue the biggest copper mine producer in the world United States loosing share and Peru increasing its share Mexico maintaining the same share at around 3.6% Source: ICSG 2012/2014 Main Global Assumptions for Refine
11、d Production 2012 Japanese refined production recovered from low 2011 levels. (earthquake) 2013 world refined production recovering from extended maintenances occurring in 2012 Chinese refined production continuing its strong expansion Expected improved capacity utilization rates at Indian refinerie
12、s. Two new refineries that started in Turkey and in Kazakhstan in 2011 bringing new supply in 2012/2013 Primary electrolytic refinery production to remain constrained by shortage of concentrates World secondary production expected to grow by 11% in 2013 and share in total output to be around 19% Wor
13、ld copper refined production expected to grow by around 6% in 2013, after a growth of about 2% in 2012 13 International Copper Study Group -2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 000t CuWorld Refined Production0.0%
14、2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 World primary refined production growthWorld secondary refined production growthSource: ICSG 14 Distribution of Copper Refined Production by Country Source: ICSG China, 5.2%Chile, 11.1%Japan, 9.3%United States, 18.7%Rus
15、sian Fed., 7.4%Germany, 4.9%India, 0.4%Korean Rep., 1.7%Poland, 3.2%Zambia, 4.1%Australia, 2.5%Belgium, 3.1%Peru, 1.7%Spain, 1.6%Mexico, 1.4%Others, 23.7%1990 China, 30.0%Chile, 13.3%Japan, 6.8% United States, 5.3%Russian Fed., 4.0%Germany, 3.1%India, 3.2%Korean Rep., 2.9%Poland, 2.5%Zambia, 3.3%Aus
16、tralia, 2.2%Mexico, 2.0%Spain, 2.0%Belgium, 1.8%Peru, 1.5%Others, 16.2%2014 Strong growth in Chinese refined production, up from 5% of world share in 1990 to 30% by 2014 United States and Japan loosing share Mexico growing from 1.4% to 2% 2012/2014 Main Global Assumptions for Usage Copper consuming sectors growth linked to the performance of the world economy. World GDP should p
