《气候变化、农业和贸易》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《气候变化、农业和贸易（25页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、1Climate Change, Agriculture and Trade: Implications for Sustainable Development A Background Paper prepared for the International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD) and the session titled Agriculture, Climate Change and Sustainable Development atThe Future of Agriculture: A Global
2、 Dialogue amongst Stakeholders 2Table of Contents FOREWARD EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.INTRODUCTION 1.1 Agriculture and Development 1.2 Threats to Agricultural Development 1.2.1 Global environmental change 1.2.2 Global economic change 2. CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE 2.1 The Climate Problem 2.2 Impacts of
3、Climate Change on Agriculture2.2.1 Biophysical Impacts 2.2.2 Socioeconomic Impacts 3.0 CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR 3.1 Mitigation 3.1.1 Mitigation Options 3.1.2 Incentives for Mitigation 3.1.3 Mitigation Trade-Offs 3.2 Adaptation 3.2.1 Adaptation in the short
4、term 3.2.2 Adaptation in the long term 3.3 Other Issues Pertinent to Mitigation and Adaptation 3.3.1 Food miles 3.3.2 Virtual water and ghost acres 3.3.3 Carbon leakage and embodied carbon 3.3.4 Biofuels 4. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS FOR INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL TRADE 4.1 International agricultur
5、al Trade 4.2 Agricultural Trade and Climate Change Linkages4.2.1 Effects of climate change on agricultural trade 4.2.2 Climate change and agricultural trade policies 34.2.3 Climate change, comparative advantage and competitiveness 5. IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 6. WHAT CAN THE INTERNATI
6、ONAL COMMUNITY DO? 7 CONCLUSIONREFERENCES 41.INTRODUCTION 1.1 Agriculture and Development Agriculture has played a historically important role in driving national and global development. The industrial revolution, borne out of the need to improve agricultural production, was financed by taxes and sa
7、les from agricultural surpluses. The new technologies contributed to an expansion of the agricultural sector with lower production costs (World Bank, 2007a). The increased agricultural growth provided the stimulus for overall economic growth, with a subsequent decline in the overall contribution of
8、agriculture to gross domestic product (GDP) in these industrialised countries. The share of agriculture in GDP is a good indicator of overall economic development, and there appears to be an inverse relationship between GDP and dependence on agriculture Agriculture contributes substantially to the G
9、DPs of developing countries. On average, agriculture contributed about two percent of the GDP of developed countries in 2004, and 11 percent for the developing countries, with an average of 40 percent for Africa (The World Bank, 2007b). Agricultural development is strategic to the economic growth of
10、 many developing countries. Globally, it is the source of livelihood for about 85 percent of the rural people, and in Africa where more than 80 percent of the population is rural, subsistence agriculture accounts for the livelihoods of about 90 percent, of the these rural people, most of them living
11、 below official poverty lines. While rural poverty rates have generally declined in other world regions in the past 10 years, the rates in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa remained high (between 40 and 50 percent) with a substantial increase in absolute numbers compounded by a rapid population grow
12、th rate.The Millennium Development Goals were developed with the intention of reducing global poverty by 50 percent by 2015. Considering that most of the poor depend directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods, attempts at addressing poverty should focus on improving their livelihood
13、s. Agricultural development is vital to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) and for stimulating economic growth. Research has shown the effectiveness of agricultural growth in reducing poverty and in sustaining that reduction. Overall GDP growth originating in agriculture is, o
14、n average, about twice as effective in benefiting the poorest half of a countrys population as growth generated in non-agricultural sectors. Countries that have made significant progress towards achieving the MDGs such as Ghana had relatively high agricultural growth rates (DFID, 2005; World Bank, 2
15、007b). This has motivated the renewed interest by African countries to improve agricultural production in the continent. 1.2 Threats to Agricultural Development Global agriculture is exposed to several global challenges in recent years. These challenges are environmental, through global environmenta
16、l change, and economic, through globalization, and both of them are interlinked and self-reinforcing. 1.2.1 Global environmental change The world is facing more severe and devastating environmental threats than have previously been experienced. These threats include erosion, land degradation, deforestation, and climate variability and change, which could cause irreversible 5damage to terrestrial and marine ecosystems with consequent loss of production
