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1、CONFIDENTIALChinas Mobile Telecom Services Industry OverviewGCO Practice DevelopmentMay 2002This report is solely for the use of Firm personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution without prior written approval from McKinsey McKinsey analysis5Telecoms Service Ind
2、ustry 020403.ppt*Revenues do not equal the product of ARPU as subscriber figures are provided for year end, not average subscribers during a year. Detailed information on the timing of new subscriptions and churn required for the calculation of average subscribers during a given year is not availabl
3、e* All CAGRs are calculated on the announced data Source:Deutsche Bank; JP Morgan; MIIEXTRAORDINARY SUBSCRIBER GROWTH IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF REVENUE EVOLUTION, MORE THAN MAKING UP FOR LARGE DECLINES IN ARPU DUE TO STIFF COMPETITIONMobile revenues* $ Billions Number of subscribers low case Millions
4、 CAGR 30%CAGR 16%CAGR 83%ARPU US$/monthCAGR -24%CAGR -7%Penetration initially low Government backing for increasing subscriber numbers Relatively low fixed line penetration Low-end prepaid subscriber increaseDrivers Decline due to increased prepaid and lower spending by late entrants Tariff reductio
5、n as competition increases Slightly off-set by increase in data traffic in later years CAGR 19%20823526329117161515Announced Effective 6Telecoms Service Industry 020403.ppt* 05 forecast use low case, net subs after inactive and multi-sim-card reduction * Major European countries include: UK, France,
6、 Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden Source:JP Morgan; WEFA-WMM; MII; McKinsey analysisJapanCHINA IS THE WORLDS LARGEST MARKET IN TERMS OF SUBSCRIBERS, HAVING OVERTAKEN THE US IN 2001USMajor European* countriesCAGR = 30%CAGR = 14%CAGR = 7%Number of mobile subscribers MillionsCAGR = 13%2000200
7、5China low case*China high case*CAGR = 22%7Telecoms Service Industry 020403.pptCHINAS MOBILE SUBSCRIBER BASE IS GROWING MORE RAPIDLY THAN ANY OTHER MAJOR MARKET, COMPRISING 15% OF WORLD TOTAL IN 2001* Afirca, Eastern Europe, Middle East, Canada *Forecast of 02-05 use the high case, net subs after in
8、active and multi-sim-card reduction Source:JP Morgan; Gartner 2001; Deutsche Bank; Merrill Lynch; Piper Jaffray19971998199920002001E2073004827279651,1781,3931,633100% = Global mobile subscribers Million subscribers; percentWestern EuropeUSSouth and LatinJapan and Asia PacificChina*Rest of world*CAGR
9、 1997-2005 percent2918452847452002E 2003E 2004E 2005E1,8508Telecoms Service Industry 020403.pptCHINAS MOBILE MARKET IS PROJECTED TO GROW SIGNIFICANTLY* 02-05 forecast are net subs after inactive and multi-sim-card reduction Source:IDC report; JP Morgan report; McKinsey analysisNet subscriber* additi
10、ons Millions199719981999200020012002E2003E2004E2005E10847133-98-4711Annual growth Percent1237912131516Penetrat ion Percent47.1 43.946.345.75.511.516.939.4 35.9Low case High caseLow10847103-9225-13HighLowHigh12379121619239Telecoms Service Industry 020403.ppt0%5%10%15%20%25%CHINAS SUBSCRIBER BASE OF 2
11、18 MILLION IMPLIES A 47% PENETRATION OF AN ADDRESSABLE MARKET OF 460 MILLION BY 2005* Low case, net subs after inactive and multi-sim-card reduction Source:JP Morgan; DRI; A; Literature search; Analyst reports; Team analysisIncome per capita (US$ p.a.)2001Addressable marketNumber of mobile subscribe
12、rsImplied penetration of the addressable market2005E345 mn145 mn42%463 mn 218 mn*47%China income distribution and addressable market Percent1,8151,7722001 2005 Chinas addressable population for mobile services is projected to increase by 8% p.a. for the next five years to 460 million in 2005 The key
13、 assumptions in determining the income threshold are: Chinese consumers willing to spend 5-10% of their income on communication services higher than the average of 3.5 -4% for more developed markets as a greater portion of income is available for non- essential goods as a result of Chinas relatively
14、 low living cost Half of this assumed spent on mobile services (5.5%) Unicoms prepaid ARPU will decrease from USD 8.3 for 2001 to USD 8.1 for 2005; therefore the threshold income will drop from USD 1,815 (8.3*12/5.5%) for 2001 to USD 1,772 for 2005 (8.1*12/5.5%)2005 Addressable market: 35% Addressab
15、le population: 460 mn persons2001 Addressable market: 27% Addressable population: 345 mn personsPercent of population10Telecoms Service Industry 020403.pptMOBILE SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION OF LESS THAN 7% IN 2000, LEAVES SIGNIFICANT ROOM FOR GROWTHSource:JP Morgan; IDC report; Gartner; Literature search
16、, EIU100%199619971998199920002001E 2002E 2003E2004E 2005EMobile subscriber penetration in 2000 PercentItalySwedenNetherlandsUKSpainGermanyFranceUSChina*All subscribersData service subscribers1,2181,2301,2421,2541,2651,2761,2871,2981,3091,319As percentage of total population low case* Millions (total population)China Urban* 02-05 forecast are net subs after
