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1、国内图书分类号：F713.50 国际图书分类号：339.137.2管理学硕士学位论文企业市场危机应急预案启动时间管理研究硕 士 研 究 生： 史晓叶导申 请师： 李国峰副教授学 位： 管理学硕士学 科 、 专 业： 企业管理所 在 单 位： 管理学院答 辩 日 期： 2008 年 6 月授予学位单位： 哈尔滨工业大学Classified Index: F713.50 U.D.C: 339.137.2Dissertation for the Master Degree of ManagementStudy on Management for Starting Time of Contingenc
2、y Plans of Enterprise Marketing CrisisCandidate：Supervisor：Academic Degree Applied for：Specialty：Affiliation：Date of Defence：Degree-Conferring-Institution：Shi XiaoyeProf. Li GuofengMaster of ManagementEnterprise ManagementSchool of ManagementJune, 2008Harbin Institute of Technology哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文摘要
3、近年来，随着中国经济不断发展，经营环境也不断复杂化，各种企业危 机事件频繁发生，危机事件的应对己经成为考验企业能力的一个重要环节。 应对危机事件是一个系统工程，其中一个重要环节就是应急预案的启动实 施。应急预案描述了应急事件的响应，是高效应急反应的基础。由于危机事 件问题本身的多样性和多发性，即使是同样的事件，发生在不同的时间和地 点，所应采取的措施也是不同的，这使得很多应急反应的决策者在面临某些 危机事件时，无法在最短的时间内确定自己要做什么或是怎么做，结果延误 了应对方案的启动时间，造成了不必要的损失。对此，本文提出了危机事件 应急预案启动时间的决策模型，并引入实例，运用数据和统计学方法，
4、对模 型进行了应用，并证明了模型的有效性，从而指导危机事件应急反应过程的 进行。 本文对相关课题的国内外研究现状进行了详细的综述，阐明了对于应急 预案相关理论的研究，目前国内还处于起步阶段。同时，分析了危机管理的 基本理论，包括危机的特性、发展、一般模式以及危机的成因，并重点针对 危机的成因进行了机理分析。另外，本文还对应急预案的相关理论进行了阐 述，介绍了应急预案的制定过程，主要包括应急预案的特点、制定原则、制 定内容及制定步骤。 本文的重点研究在于管理者面对危机事件应该何时启动应急预案的问 题。文章从理论层面构建了单个企业应急预案启动时间的优化方案,并引入 实例与数据，对模型进行了应用。同
5、时，通过统计学方法，验证了该模型方 案的可行性与有效性。通过模型的推导，分不同情况讨论了对于任何不确定 持续时间的危机事件,企业利用本文所讨论的启动方案来启动应急预案,危机事件所造成的损失与方案启动的成本之和 CA 总是能够控制在最优应对损失COPT 的 2 倍以内。在此基础上,对模型进行了推论，进一步研究了两个企业应 急预案启动时间的延误,并对解决时间延误的问题提出了建议。关键词危机管理；应急预案；启动方案；最优成本-I-哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文AbstractRecently, many kinds of emergencies take place frequently with
6、 the development of China. How to solve the emergency properly has been an important aspect to test the administrative ability of the government. The solution for the emergency is a systematic engineering, where the initiation and implementation of the emergency plans is starting time. Emergency pla
7、ns describe the domain knowledge of the emergency, and it is the basis of high- efficient emergency responses. Considering the diversity of emergencies, even with the same emergency, while happening in different time and locations, it may have different problems to be solved and distinct measures to
8、 be adopted. This greatly confuses many decision-makers when facing some emergencies, leading to the process delayed and making needless losses. This paper present the formalizing way through the frame of emergency mode with practical application. Then, using data and significant to calculation form
9、ula and proving the efficiency of the formula. We can use such formalizing description way to control the process of emergency. The paper carries out a detailed study on the research status at home and abroad, elucidating its still at the starting stage of the research of emergency plans in nation.
10、At the same time, the paper analyzes the basic theory of the crisismanagement, including the characteristics of the crisis, development, general pattern and the causes and mechanism. In addition, the paper make the theoretical explanations of the relevant contingency plans and introduce the process
11、of the emergency plans including the characteristic, the principle, the contents and preparation steps of contingency plans. The most important part of the paper is the decision of the starting time of contingency plans for manager when facing emergency. The paper explores the starting time that man
12、agers activate contingency plans under the disruptions. Then, using the model with data to calculation formula and proving the efficiency of the formula. At the same time, it verifies the feasibility and effectiveness by using statistics method. Through the derivation of the model, the paper discuss
13、es activating contingency plans with the formula under uncertain- II -哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文time in different conditions, the losses and costs of the emergency CA can be controlled within twice COPT. On this basis, we further study when to activate contingency plans for two enterprises, pointing out the time distortion phenomena and give a proposition for the time distortion.KeywordsCrisis Management； Contingency Plans； Activating Plans ； Minimal Cost- III -哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文目录摘要 .I Abstract . II第 1 章 绪论 . 1 1.1 问题的提出 . 1 1.2 国内外研究现状 . 2 1.3 研究的基础理论 . 4 1.3.1 危机的特性 . 4 1.3.2 危机的分类 .
