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1、 I论文提要 论文提要 依据资本成本理论、可持续增长理论和股利理论，本文对资本成本、可持续增长率和分红比例的相关机理进行分析，构建了“可持续分红比例”估算模型（SPORM） 。其基本理念在于：当留存收益再投资报酬率能够满足投资者要求报酬率时， “约束性可持续分红比例”引导企业留存资金创造更大的价值，并为公司的价值创造提供一种风险控制机制； 当留存收益再投资报酬率不能补偿投资者要求报酬率时， “必要性可持续分红比例”引导企业努力达到有利于价值创造的绩效目标（股权资本成本） 。 围绕 SPORM，本文针对 2002- 2006 年沪深 A 股上市公司和国有控股上市公司样本分别进行了估算检验。检验结
2、果表明：我国上市公司多数年份留存收益再投资报酬率补偿股权资本成本程度较差，行业间 SPOR 相关指标存在较大差异；而国有控股上市公司所呈现的 SPOR 估算特征与上市公司样本基本一致。 以此为基础，本文提出了一个依托 EVA 体系、兼顾股权资本成本和财务可持续增长能力的可持续分红比例实现机制框架。框架分析和数据检验表明，我国上市公司各年行业股权经济增加值状况普遍较差，资本使用效率较为低下。 文章建议， 可持续分红比例价值实现的基本路径包括构建与完善公司的 EVA价值管理平台、不断提高和保持留存收益再投资报酬率水平、树立全面的资本成本观念、提升对公司业务的识别与处置能力、形成和保持有利于价值创造
3、的财务可持续增长能力以及加强和提高公司外部融资能力等。 主题词：主题词：资本成本 可持续增长 分红比例估算 实现机制 IIAbstract Based on analysis about the cost of capital theory, sustainable growth theory and dividend policy, this paper investigates the relationship that a companys cash dividend payout ratio has with the cost of equity capital and the sus
4、tainable growth rate and builds an estimation model of sustainable payout rate (SPORM).its basic idea lies in the following aspects. When the rate of return on reinvestment of retained earnings can compensate the investor- required rate of return, a restricted sustainable payout rate (RSPOR) will be
5、 estimated to guide the company to create greater value and build a risk control mechanism of creating value. Otherwise, an expected sustainable payout rate (ESPOR) will be estimated to guide the company to achieve a performance benchmark of value creation, namely, the cost of equity capital. Accord
6、ing to SPORM, respectively, the paper tests the sample of A- share listed companies and the state- controlled listed companies from 2002 to 2006 in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The result finds that the rate of return on equity can not compensate the cost of equity capital in many listed co
7、mpanies in most years, and the relevant indexes of SPOR is significant different among the industries. But the SPOR characteristics of the state- controlled listed companies are consistent with the listed companies in many aspects. On this basis, the paper takes the cost of equity capital and the su
8、stainable growth rate into account and improves the system of EVA in order to create company value according to the estimation of SPOR. Both the system analysis and its data test indicate that the equity economic value added is low generally in many industries and the efficiency of capital is lower
9、in Chinese listed companies. Based on above of all, the paper draws some conclusions on the basic paths of the value creating of SPOR, such as construction and improvement of the companys EVA system, continuously improving and maintaining the rate of return on reinvestment of retained earnings, sett
10、ing up a correct idea of cost of capital, enhancing the ability to dispose of the companys asset, developing and maintaining the capacity of sustainable growth to be conducive to the value creating and strengthening the companys external financing capability and so on. Key words: Cost of Capital Sus
11、tainable Growth Estimation of Dividend Payout Ratio Mechanism of Value Creating of SPOR iii6 可持续分红比例实现机制设计可持续分红比例实现机制设计.164 6.1 可持续分红比例（SPOR）差异性检验.164 6.1.1 SPOR 相关指标统计描述.164 6.1.2 SPOR 相关指标差异性检验.165 6.2 可持续分红比例（SPOR）驱动因素分析.167 6.2.1 SPOR 关键指标分解.167 6.2.2 SPOR 相关分解指标差异性检验.168 6.3 可持续分红比例（SPOR）价值创造框架.169 6.3.1 经济增加值系统的引入.169 6.3.2 SPOR 价值创造系统框架.171 6.3.3 SPOR 价值创造系统的数据验证.175 6.4 可持续分红比例（SPOR）价值创造的实现路径.179 6.4.1 构建与完善公司整体的 EVA 价值管理平台.179 6.4.2 不断提高和保持留存收益再投资报酬率水平.179 6.4.3 树立全面的资本成本观念.180 6.4.4 提高对公司业务的识别与处置能力.181 6.4.5 形成和保持有利于价值创造的财务可持续增长能力.182 6.4.6 加强和提高公司外部融资能力.
