I 摘 要 目前，安全的概念已经不仅仅局限在军事方面，在其他诸如经济、社会、生态层面，安全问题也具有同等重要性，综合所有安全维度的生态安全更是日益得到人们的重视与关注城市生态安全作为生态安全的重要视角之一，是一个国家或区域安全及可持续发展的基础和核心就生态安全的研究对象而言，生态脆弱型地区作为独具特色的环境系统，具有敏感性和不稳定性的特点，对其进行深入研究具有重要的理论和现实意义基于这种考虑，本文应用目前较为流行的 PSR模型和灰色系统理论模型，以兰州市域为对象，对生态脆弱型地区的生态安全状况进行评价和预警分析，希望能够摸索出一套科学、简便的方法，以使政策制定机构可以准确把握区域生态安全的变化，并及时制定合理、有效的生态策略，确保区域生态安全 本文详细梳理了国内外生态安全研究进展，在明确生态安全内涵及生态脆弱型地区相关概念的基础上，阐述了生态脆弱型地区生态安全评价和预警的基本理论；通过对国内外生态安全评价方法的比较和分析，建立了基于 PSR 模型的生态脆弱型地区生态安全评价指标体系，并引入生态安全综合评价指数作为市域生态安全的表征， 对区域生态安全状况进行回顾性分析； 运用灰色系统理论模型与 PSR评价指标体系相结合，进行了生态脆弱型地区生态安全预警模型设计；综合运用上述模型，以生态脆弱型地区——兰州市为典型个案，在计算生态安全综合评价指数，划分生态安全等级的基础上，对其开展生态安全评价和预警的实证研究，并提出改善兰州市生态安全的具体指导措施。
论文共分六个部分第一部分为引言，主要阐明论文的研究背景、研究意义及研究思路；第二部分为国内外研究进展综述，对生态安全研究相关内容进行梳理，主要对生态安全的概念、研究内容及相关理论观点（复合生态系统理论、系统自组织理论、城市生态系统的评价理论和区域系统控制理论）加以介绍；第三部分为兰州生态脆弱型地区的界定，在对生态脆弱型地区内涵进行深入解读的基础上，从区域背景和影响因素等方面对兰州生态脆弱型地区进行界定；第四部分为兰州市生态安全回顾性研究，基于 PSR 模型进行指标体系构建，计算兰州生态安全综合评价指数，并对结果进行深入分析；第五部分为基于灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型的兰州市生态安全预警与调控研究， 在对生态预警内涵进行解读的基础上，通过 GM(1,1)模型计算兰州生态安全评价指数预警值，并对生态安全警素进行调控研究；第六部分为兰州市生态安全调控对策研究，基于对兰州市生态状况的回顾性分析和预测性研究，提出一些具有针对性的对策建议 关键词：关键词：生态安全 生态脆弱型地区 评价 预警 兰州市 PDF created with pdfFactory trial version II Abstract Nowadays, the concepts of security are no longer limited to the military form, but other aspects, including economic, ecological, and social. The eco- security that integrated of all dimensions of security is paid more and more attention. As the main visual angle of eco- security, the urban eco- security is the base and core of national or regional eco- security and sustainable development. On the study of ecological security, the ecological fragile region as a unique environmental system, the sensitivity and instability of the characteristics of an in- depth study of great theoretical and practical significance. Based on this consideration, in this paper, using the currently more popular PSR models and grey system theoretical model and taking Lanzhou City as an example, study the ecological fragile region of the ecological security evaluation and early- warning analysis of the future. Want to explore a set of scientific and simple methods to enable the policy- making organization can be accurately grasp the regional ecological security and the changes in a timely manner to control and governance measures and formulating reasonable and effective ecological strategy to ensure regional ecological security. In this paper, carding a detailed study of ecological security at home and abroad progress and having deeply understanding the connotation of ecological security and ecological fragile region, expatiating the basic theory of ecological security evaluation and early- warning; Through analysis the evaluation and the methods of ecological security at home and abroad, established the index system of ecological fragile region that based on the PSR model, and importing the integrated index to token the regional ecological security, and having analyzed the ecological security situation in the region retrospectively; integrating the Grey system theoretical model and the PSR evaluation index system, than design a ecological security early- warning model. Using the above method, taking Lanzhou City as an example, calculating the ecological security index and compartmentalizing the ecological security level, than Conduct the empirical research of ecological security evaluation and early- warning, and to improve the ecological security measures for Lanzhou City. This paper is divided into seven parts altogether. The first part is introduction, It is clarify this thesis’s research background, significance and establish the research ideas; The second part is the summary of research progress at home and abroad, Introduced the concept of ecological security, research and related theoretical viewpoints(the urban security systematically appraise theory, social- economic- natural compound ecosystem, PDF created with pdfFactory trial version III system self organization theory, regional system control theory); Part III is defined Lanzhou ecological fragile region, on the basis of interrelated the ecological fragile region, defined the Lanzhou ecological fragile region from a regional background and context on the impact of factors; Part IV is divided into Lanzhou City retrospective study of ecological security, based on the PSR model, constructed the index system, then calculate the integrated index and analyze in- deathly the results; Part V to taken the theory of grey GM (1,1) model predictive Lanzhou City ecological security early- warning and regulation, calculating the Lanzhou’s ecological security index and studying the ecological control effected factors; Part VI is the ecological security control measures for Lanzhou City, According to previous results, it given some of the Countermeasures. Key words: ecological security; ecological fragile region; Evaluation; early- Warning; Lanzhou City PDF created with pdfFactory trial version 图 表 图。