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1、Evaluating Socio Economic Development, SOURCEBOOK 2: Methods an absorption side; and an income distribution side. A special characteristic of the HERMIN model is that it disaggregates GDP into five production sectors (manufacturing, building at the time of mid-term review (a mixture of ex-ante and e
2、x-post); and when the programmes are completed (ex-post). Although each cohesion expenditure programme is a complex plan consisting of hundreds of individual projects and measures, grouped under a small number of Operational Programmes, these need to be reclassified these for use in model-based anal
3、ysis into a smaller number of economic investment and expenditure categories: e.g., public infrastructure; human resources; and aid to private enterprises. These expenditure flows are usually treated as additions to stocks of infrastructure, human capital and R the long run effects of fiscal consoli
4、dation and structural reforms in Europe; the impact of monetary policy on the success of government expenditure cuts; and the macroeconomic effects of various tax reforms and VAT harmonisation. The model has also been used to assess the employment and growth effects of the Trans-European Transport N
5、etworks. In recent years QUEST II, and its successor, QUEST III have been used for analysis of Cohesion Policy.The E3ME model was designed to provide a forward-looking framework for energy and environment policy, taking account of economic impacts, but has also been used to analyse a range of struct
6、ural and financial policy innovations. A recent example of its application (GHK et al. 2003) was in assessing the contribution of the Structural Funds to sustainable development in the three programme periods 1989-1993, 1994-1999 and 2000-2006. E3ME modelled demand-side and supply-side effects by wh
7、ich investment and expenditure in education drive economic activity and environmental change. The demand-side modelling was used to assess the effect that SFs have on the levels of taxes, current government expenditure, investment and the economy. The supply-side modelling assessed the longer-term e
8、ffects of the SF on changes in productivity and changes in the accumulation of capital and technology. These longer-term effects are incorporated in the model through changes in productivity induced by these expenditures. The analysis compared a baseline (policy on) scenario based on historical data
9、, against a counterfactual scenario (policy off) without the structural funds.The main steps involved in model-based evaluationThe planning and execution of a macroeconomic model should only be considered if the evaluators have adequate research experience, modelling knowledge, technical computing s
10、kills and time. This is because numerous highly technical steps are involved, as outlined below.Step 1: The modelling context An existing modelling unit can be used as a basis for developing and operating model-based analysis of Cohesion Policy. If no such unit exists, then the establishment of a ne
11、w unit should be undertaken only if there are other model-related tasks that also need to be addressed, such as a need for independent medium-term economy forecasts, analysis of routine domestic budgetary policy, etc. Links with university-based researchers can also play a supportive role in initiat
12、ing modelling activity in a government evaluation unit. Step 2: Locating a suitable modelIt is generally rare for a model to be built from scratch for an evaluation exercise, because models are quite resource-intensive. This often means that an existing model with broadly acceptable features must be
13、 chosen, and adapted as necessary for the particular policy under analysis. Depending on the scope of the analysis, e.g., a single region, a single country, or pan-European, there will be different numbers of competing models available which will generally require input from the model proprietor. Ev
14、aluating Socio Economic Development, SOURCEBOOK 2: Methods Informationen zur Raumentwicklung No. 4/2001.Bradley, J. (2006). “Evaluating the Impact of European Union Cohesion Policy in Less-developed Countries and Regions”, Regional Studies, Special Issue: The Evaluation of European Union Cohesion Po
15、licy, (eds.) J. Bachtler and C. Wren, pp. 189-199.Evaluating Socio Economic Development, SOURCEBOOK 2: Methods & Techniques Macroeconomic ModelsNovember 2009 10 Bradley, J., Untiedt, G. (2008): Do economic models tell us anything useful about Cohesion Policy impacts? A comparison of HERMIN, QUEST an
16、d ECOMOD. In: Stierle-von Schtz, U., M.H. Stierle, F.B. Jennings Jr., A. Kuah (2008): Regional Economic Policy in Europe New Challenges for Theory, Empirics and Normative Interventions. Edgar Elgar, Cheltenham UK, pp. 159-180.Bradley, J., Untiedt, G. (2008), “The COHESION System of HERMIN country and regional models: Description and Operating Manual Version 3”, GEFRA/Mnster
