《太阳能行业前景展望》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《太阳能行业前景展望（38页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、1Solar Energy Industry Forecast: Perspectives on U.S. Solar Market TrajectoryMay 27, 2008 United States Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Programwww.eere.energy.gov/solar/solar_america/ solaree.doe.gov 2 2Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market in
2、vestments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon normalization Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resourcesAgenda3 3Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America
3、Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance of system costs Silicon normalization Solar system value drivers Solar market forecast Additional resourcesAgenda4Todays U.S
4、. Electricity Cost Landscape EIA shows historic national average retail electricity prices outpacing inflation by 1.2% Conservative forecasts from the Energy Information Agency (EIA) show residential electricity prices reaching 12 c/kWh by 2009EIA forecasts are good baselines, but are generally cons
5、ervative as they are based on historical data without recent movement in supply/demand balances52008 E11. 55 2009 E12. 09 2010 E12. 66 2011 E13. 26 2012 E13. 88 2013 E14. 53 2014 E15. 21 2015 E15. 93U.S. National Electricity Price Forecast Applying the same conservative 4.7% inflationary rate, avera
6、ge US electricity prices will reach 16 c/kWh by 2015 Rates in some states will be higher, with CT electricity prices forecast to reach 27 c/kWh in 2015 by the same logic*Estimatesc/kWhSolar is already cost competitive in some states today and will be in many more in coming years as energy prices inc
7、rease nationwideYear*6Installed system cost ranges have implications for levelized cost of energy Commercial / utility scale PV systems are currently economically competitive with grid electricity prices in many areas Both residential and commercial systems will be less expensive that grid electrici
8、ty by 2010, assuming that the 4.7% annual growth rate continuesSolar market penetration is created by the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) over the lifetime of the solar system vs. grid electricity prices and government/utility incentivesResidential InstallationsCommercial Installations Coal prices h
9、ave nearly tripled over the past five years Coal power plants face increasing project uncertainty due to carbon and siting concerns7Traditional generation sources face hurdles even as demand growsCoal and natural gas prices are increasing at much faster rates than 4.7% per year, while nuclear faces
10、regulatory, financing and siting issues.$ / short tonSource: Simmons solar investors and companies must execute and perpetuate this cycle Policy supports are only in place for a limited duration, and the recent rapid expansion of investment in solar is maximizing the utility of these incentives whil
11、e they last More mature, larger markets emerge from the end of the early market hypergrowth stage21Global investment in solar companies has grown exponentially, and that growth is expected to continue Despite a pull back in share prices of public equities, solar companies have continued to raise sig
12、nificant capital throughout Q1 2008.22Venture capital and private equity investments have created new companies and capacity expansions In 2007, capacity expansions (private equity investments) dominated in the EU, while the U.S. venture community dramatically ramped up funding of start - ups23Ventu
13、re capital deal flow has expanded, including increases in deal size and volume As companies have matured, and venture investors have recognized the longer time period required for energy investments, deal size has increased Venture round growth from 2005 through 2007 shows significant increases in f
14、irst and second round deals, showing that the market for new solar innovations has not been sated24Private investments by solar technology type show significant regional variances and specializations Regional patterns of investment are likely to change as newer technologies mature and are migrated t
15、o lower cost manufacturing centers25Many U.S. solar companies are making significant cost and quality improvements to their technologiesDOE and these companies investors believe that many of their technologies will reach grid parity by 2015 or sooner. All of these companies are pursing grid parity o
16、r economic competitiveness. Many firms calculate grid parity with approximately 10 c/kWh electricity calculated over the life of the solar system.2626Energy markets / forecasts DOE Solar America Initiative overview Capital market investments in solar Solar photovoltaic (PV) sector overview PV prices and costs PV market evolution Market evolution considerations Balance
