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1、Flash Economics 22 February 2018 - 194 Patrick Artus Tel. (33 1) 58 55 15 00 PatrickArtus Stop looking only at the demand side Growth prospects for OECD countries are often analysed by looking only at the outlook for demand: fiscal and monetary policy stance, global trade growth, outlook for corpor
2、ate investment and housing purchases, real wage growth. But when the unemployment rate approaches the structural unemployment rate, growth depends less and less on the growth in demand for goods and services and increasingly on the growth in supply of goods and services. At the structural unemployme
3、nt rate, the growth in demand for goods and services determines only foreign trade and possibly inflation. This change in the determination of growth when the unemployment rate approaches the structural unemployment rate is too often forgotten. Distribution of this report in the United States. See i
4、mportant disclosures at the end of this report. Flash Economics 2 The unemployment rate is very close to the structural unemployment rate in several OECD countries The unemployment rate is close to the structural unemployment rate in the United States (Chart 1, given the very low unemployment rate a
5、nd the stabilisation of the participation rate), France and Germany (given the clear appearance of recruitment difficulties, Chart 2); in France despite the high level of unemployment (Chart 3). 626364656667683456789101102 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 1 United States: Unemplo
6、yment and participation rates (as %)Unemployment rate (LHS)Participation rate (RHS)Sources: Datastream, BLS, Natixis -40481216202428-4048121620242802 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 2 Proportion of companies experiencing recruitment difficulties (European Commission survey, as %
7、)GermanyFranceSource: EC, Natixis246810122468101202 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 3 Unemployment rate (as %)United StatesGermanyFranceSources: Datastream, BLS, Eurostat, INSEE, NatixisYet forecasters see growth remaining strong in these countries, as for other OECD countries (
8、Table 1). Table 1: GDP growth (in real terms, as % per year) United States IMF OECD Consensus Forecast 2017 2.3 2.2 2.3 2018 2.7 2.5 2.7 2019 2.5 2.1 2.4 Germany IMF OECD Consensus Forecast 2017 2.5 2.5 2.2 2018 2.3 2.3 2.3 2019 2.0 1.9 1.8 Flash Economics 3 France IMF OECD Consensus Forecast 2017 1
9、.8 1.8 1.8 2018 1.9 1.8 1.9 2019 1.9 1.7 1.7 Spain IMF OECD Consensus Forecast 2017 3.1 3.1 3.1 2018 2.4 2.3 2.5 2019 2.1 2.1 2.2 Italy IMF OECD Consensus Forecast 2017 1.6 1.6 1.5 2018 1.4 1.5 1.4 2019 1.1 1.3 1.1 Sources: IMF, OECD, EC, Consensus Forecast But forecasters favour the demand side for
10、 goods and services Forecasters base their forecasts on: - The fiscal policy stance (Chart 4), currently with, for example, the corporate tax cuts in the United States; -10-8-6-4-202-10-8-6-4-20202 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Chart 4 Fiscal deficit (as % of nominal GDP)United StatesG
11、ermanyFranceSources: Datastream, Natixis- The monetary policy stance, with long-term interest rates being kept very low (Charts 5A, B and C); -4-202468-4-20246802 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 5A United States: Nominal GDP and interest rate on 10- year Treasuries Nominal GDP (
12、Y/Y as %)10-year Treasury interest rate (as %)Sources: Datastream, BEA, Natixis-8-6-4-202468-8-6-4-20246802 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 5B Germany: Nominal GDP and interest rate on 10-year government bondsNominal GDP (Y/Y as %)10-year govt. interest rate (as %)Sources: Datas
13、tream, Destatis, NatixisFlash Economics 4 -4-20246-4-2024602 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 5C France: Nominal GDP and interest rate on 10-year government bondsNominal GDP (Y/Y as %)10-year govt. interest rate (as %)Sources: Datastream, INSEE, Natixis - Global trade growth - wh
14、ich currently is strong - and therefore exports (Charts 6A and B). -20-15-10-505101520-20-15-10-50510152002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 6A Global trade and exports (in volume terms, Y/Y as %)Global tradeUnited States: exportsSources: Datastream, BEA, Natixis-20-15-10-5051015
15、20-20-15-10-50510152002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 6B Global trade and exports (in volume terms, Y/Y as %)Global tradeGermany: exportsFrance: exportssSources: Datastream, Destatis, INSEE, Natixis- The positive outlook for corporate investment (Charts 7A and B); -40-30-20-10
16、010203040-40-30-20-1001020304002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 7A United States: Durable goods orders (in volume terms, Y/Y as %)TotalCoreSources: Datastream, Census Bureau, Natixis-100-80-60-40-200204060-100-80-60-40-20020406002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 7B Capital goods orders (industry surveys)GermanyFranceSources: European Commission, NatixisFlash
