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1、 中中中中银国际银国际银国际银国际固定收益固定收益固定收益固定收益研研研研究究究究 此报告仅代表该研究员个人观点，并不代表中银国际及其联营公司的观点。 1 中银国际固定收益研究中银国际固定收益研究中银国际固定收益研究中银国际固定收益研究 Fixed Income Research This report only represents analysts personal viewpoints, which dont necessarily represent those of BOCI Group and any of its affiliated entities. 中银国际固定收益研究中银

2、国际固定收益研究中银国际固定收益研究中银国际固定收益研究 BOCI Fixed Income Research 王卫王卫王卫王卫 (Steve Wang) + (852) 2867-6358 张威张威张威张威 (Vivian Zhang) +(86) 10-66229195 吴琼吴琼吴琼吴琼 (Qiong Wu) +(852) 2905-2134 刘溪刘溪刘溪刘溪 (Lucy Liu) +(86) 21-68604866x8025 亚洲主要新债发行亚洲主要新债发行亚洲主要新债发行亚洲主要新债发行(12 月月月月 4 日日日日12 月月月月 18 日日日日) Selected Asian

3、 New Issuance (12.4-12.18) 名称名称名称名称 Issuer 期限期限期限期限 Tenor 数量数量数量数量 Size 收益收益收益收益率率率率* Yield (%) 评级评级评级评级 Rtg ADB 10Y CNY 1bn 4.20% Aaa *收益率为新债定价/Yield is the issuing pricing 利率利率利率利率、汇率汇率汇率汇率、信用信用信用信用 研究报告研究报告研究报告研究报告 Rates, Currencies & Credits Research Report 环球利率环球利率环球利率环球利率、汇率与信用市场策略汇率与信用市场策略汇率与

4、信用市场策略汇率与信用市场策略 Global Rates, Currencies & Credit Strategy 1.两周综述: 过去两周中，早前受比预期糟糕的政府债券拍卖和阿布扎比救助迪拜消息的影响，美国债下滑；但后期随参差不一的经济数据以及对希腊和西班牙主权信用的进一步担心， 国债部分回涨，但周五仍略低收。美元借美联储例会表达的更正面的经济评估而持续上涨。在亚洲信用市场，高级债的表现超过高息债 Biweekly overview: Early on, U.S. Treasuries declined on weaker-than-expected government bond auc

5、tions and Abu Dhabis rescue support to Dubai, but mixed economic data and rising credit concerns on Greece/Spain as of late caused a rebound of Treasuries, which ended modestly lower on Friday. USD garnered momentum on the back of a more positive tone from the FOMC statement. In Asian credit market,

6、 high-grade papers outper-formed the high yield sector 2.本期聚焦:“亚洲境外新债市场的剖析” Focus: ”Overview on Asias offshore new issuance market” ? 亚洲境外新债的发行在 2009 下半年飙升，全年枌计 551 亿美元，远高于 2008 年的 141 亿和 2005 的高点 435 亿 Asian bond new issuance surged in H2 2009, bringing the 2009 total to $55.1bn, much higher than t

7、he total of $14.1bn in 2008 and the peak volume of $43.5bn in 2005 ? 基于 2002-2009 年间的数据统计表明， 亚洲新债的发行具有明显季节性。主要节假日的月份呈放缓趋势，之后放量发行Historical statistics of 2002-2009 shows a clear seasonality of Asias new issue market, which slows at key holiday or vaca-tion months and then surges post the holiday peri

8、ods ? 本文也剖析了亚洲新债发行近来的趋势，包括评级、行业和国家的分布以及中国/香港的新债市场 We also look at the recent new issuance trend by ratings, industries and countries and that of the China/HK market 市场数据市场数据市场数据市场数据 / Market Data Source: Bloomberg, BOCI 美国国债美国国债美国国债美国国债 Treasury 收益率收益率收益率收益率 Yield (%) 变动变动变动变动 Chg (bps) 信用违约掉期信用违约掉期

9、信用违约掉期信用违约掉期CDS 信用利差信用利差信用利差信用利差 Spread (bps) 变动变动变动变动 Chg (bps) 10 Year 3.539 6 China 76 (1) 5 Year 2.274 3 iTraxx Asia IG12 102 (4) 2 Year 0.795 2 债券债券债券债券 Bond 信用利差信用利差信用利差信用利差 Spread (bps) 变动变动变动变动 Chg (bps) Hutch 10Y 169 (35) Swire 10Y 130 (30) 货币货币货币货币 Currency 汇率汇率汇率汇率 FX Rate 变动变动变动变动 Chg (%

10、) 可转债可转债可转债可转债 CB 价格价格价格价格 Price (pts) 变动变动变动变动 Chg (pts) EUR:USD 1.4337 (3.5065) Sinopec 110.1/110.4 0.95 USD:JPY 90.44 (0.1104) Gome 118/119 (5.00) USD:CNY 6.8280 - Soho China 94.25/95 (2.00) 2009 . 12 . 18 固固固固 定定定定 收收收收 益益益益 研研研研 究究究究 2 Fixed Income Research B Bi iwwe ee ek kl ly y O Ov ve er rv

11、 vi ie eww: : Rates Treasuries finished the two-week period mod-estly lower. The government auctions in the 1st week were weaker compared to the strong sales in Nov. In particular, longer-term Treas-ury bonds (10-year & 30-year) saw weaker- than-expected demands. As a result Treasuries lost ground.

12、During the 2nd week, Treasury prices declined further early on after Abu Da-hbis announcement to offer $10bn to Dubai to ease the debt crisis. The FOMC statement midweek was also a main focus of the week, and, as expected, the overall policy tone re-mained unchanged with a slight upgrade on the econ

13、omic condition. However, mixed economic data late in the week triggered concerns that the global economic recovery may stall. Credit concerns on Greece and Spain also raised more alarms. After 6 straight days of sizable losses, Treasuries finally rebounded on Thursday as fund flows out of risky asse

14、ts increased. At the end of the period, the 10-year Treasury yield finished higher by 6bps to 3.539%, and the 2-year yield by 2bps to 0.795%. Elsewhere, Norways central bank surprisingly raised its benchmark interest rate by 25bps to 1.75% for the 2nd straight rate-setting session. FX U.S. dollar cl

15、imbed to a 3-month high after the FOMC statement signaled a more positive view of the Fed on the U.S. economy and labor market. DXY rose from 75.911 to 77.821. At Chinas annual Central Economic Work Con-ference, policy makers stated that China would continue to adopt a proactive fiscal policy and a

16、moderately eased monetary policy next year. The Yuan spot was unchanged, while the 1-year forward (NDF) slipped by 0.9% to 6.695 fol-lowing the government statement. Credits Asian credit market ground tighter after the Abu Dahbi/Dubai news and as the index rolls were approaching. iTraxx ex-Japan Asi

17、a index was tighter by 4bps to 102bps. In the cash market, new offshore issuance in Asia was quiet. In the secondary market, Asian high-grade papers outperformed the high yield sector. The Hutch 10-year was tighter by 35bps over the past two weeks. In High Yield, Country Garden 2014 was up to 100.87

18、5/101.375 area. In China/HK CB market, bonds ended mixed. Volumes were low towards the year-end holi-day season. 两两两两两两两两周周周周周周周周综综综综综综综综述述述述述述述述: : 利率利率利率利率 美国债市场在过去两周里略低收。与 11 月国债拍卖总求强劲相比，第一周中的国债拍卖结果较为逊色。特别是长期国债（10 和 30 年期）的拍卖所吸引的总求差于预期。国债价格随之下滑。在第二周，随阿布扎比宣布给迪拜提供 100 亿美元的救助以缓解其债务危机，国债继续下滑。本周中的美联储政

19、策会议决议亦是一焦点。利率政策定性总体如预期保持不变,但经济境况被略提升。本周后期，参差不一的经济数据引发投资者对经济复苏是否会停滞不前的担心，加上希腊和西班牙的信用风险再敲警钟，资金从风险资产外流增加。在经历连续 6 天的下跌后，国债市场在周四终于反弹。到两周结束，10 年期国债收益率枌计升 6 基点至 3.539，而 2 年期国债收益率则枌计升 2 基点至 0.795。其它方面，挪威央行意外将基准利率提高了 25 基点至 1.75%， 为该行连续第二次加息。 外汇外汇外汇外汇 在美联储政策报告加入对美经济和就业市场更正面的肯定后，美元一路攀升至 3 个月高点。美元指数截止由 75.911

20、升至 77.821。在中国年度的中央经济工作会议上，政策制定者表示中国明年将继续采取主动的财务政策和适量宽松的货币政策。至两周结束，人民币现价未变，而非交割远期（NDF）市场的 1 年人民币远期汇率在此政策报告后下滑 0.9%至 6.695。 信用信用信用信用 亚洲信用市场在本周阿布扎比/迪拜消息公布后，以及信用违约掉期指数临近更新而逐渐收窄。iTraxx 除日本以外亚洲信用违约指数掉期共收窄达 4 基点至 102 基点水平。 在纯债方面，亚洲新债发行平静。在境外二级市场，高级债表现超出高息债。和记黄埔的 10 年期债大幅收窄 35 基点。在高息债方面，碧桂园2014 年到期债上涨到 100.

21、875/101.375 水平。 在中国及香港可转债市场， 可转债价格升降不一。随着年终假日临近，交易量低迷。 固固固固 定定定定 收收收收 益益益益 研研研研 究究究究 3 Fixed Income Research F Fo oc cu us s: : O Ov ve er rv vi ie ew w o on n A As si ia a s s o of ff fs sh ho or re e n ne ew w i is s- -s su ua an nc ce e mma ar rk ke et t On the backdrop of a recovering global fin

22、an-cial market since its March trough, the Asias offshore (non-local currency) bond new issu-ance market has also experienced a sea change in 2009. Although we find some notable devia-tions of the market from historical normal coming out of such an abyss, we reasonably believe its historical pattern

23、 could still offer us some guidance going into the year of 2010. 1. A review for 2009 The Asian new issue market was largely in a subdued state during the first half of 2009 when the global financial market hit the lowest point in March (see Fig. 1). Of the total 64 new issues of the year, only 19 (

24、30%) were done in the first half. Or, of the total amount of $55.1bn, about 38% was from that period. The market saw much increased activities in the second half along with a steady-improving market condition. For the full year (up to date), the total number of issues and the total amount are up 64%

25、 and 290% from the 39 is-sues and $14.1bn total of 2008, respectively. 图图图图 1: 2009 年年年年亚洲每月新债发行亚洲每月新债发行亚洲每月新债发行亚洲每月新债发行(单位单位单位单位：十十十十亿美元亿美元亿美元亿美元) / Figure 1: 2009 monthly Asian new issuance (in $bn) 0246810JanFeb Mar Apr May JunJulAug SepOct Nov DecSource: Bond Radar, Bloomberg, BOCI By geographic

26、 distribution (see Fig. 2a), Korea issuers were the dominating borrowers, con-tributing 35.5% of the total, followed by Hong Kong (19.5%), and then Indonesia (14.1%). China was near the bottom, at 2.1%, marking another year of low activities from Chinese issuers. By quality (see Fig.2b), A-rated iss

27、ues, at 55.7%, made up more than half of the total, 本本本本本本本本期期期期期期期期聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚焦焦焦焦焦焦焦焦：亚亚亚亚亚亚亚亚洲洲洲洲洲洲洲洲境境境境境境境境外外外外外外外外新新新新新新新新债债债债债债债债市市市市市市市市场场场场场场场场的的的的的的的的剖剖剖剖剖剖剖剖析析析析析析析析 在全球金融市场自 3 月低谷逐步恢复的背景下，亚洲境外的（非本地货币）新债市场也在2009 年经历了大转变。与历年的正常水平相比，今年的新债市场在步出谷底的过程中呈现出一些显著的偏果，但我们有理由相信市场历年的模式仍可为市场步入 2010 年提供一些指

28、引。 1.1.1.1. 2009200920092009 年回顾 在 2009 年上半年，随全球信贷危机爆发至 3月的谷底，亚洲新债市场整体表现非常疲软（见图 1）。在全年发售的 64 支新债中，只有 19 支（30）于上半年发售。或者说，在全年共 551 亿美元的新债中，约有 38来自这个时期。但市场在下半年随市场条件大幅改善而稳步增长。全年（至今）发行总数比 2008年的 39 支增长了 64，而总金额比 2008 年的 141 亿美元增长了 290。 图图图图 2: 2009 年年年年亚洲新债发售情况亚洲新债发售情况亚洲新债发售情况亚洲新债发售情况：国家和评级分布国家和评级分布国家和评级

29、分布国家和评级分布 / Figure 2: 2009 Asian new issuance: by coun-tries and ratings KOREA35.5%Others1.0%PHILIPPINES9.7%INDIA2.7%HONG KONG19.4%CHINA2.1%SINGAPORE7.3%MALAYSIA8.2%INDONESIA14.1%a) BBB6.1%BB24.5%CCC0.0%A55.7%AA5.0%AAA4.5%NA2.7%B1.5%b) Source: Bond Radar, Bloomberg, BOCI 按地理分布来看（参见图 2a），韩国发行人占主导地位，占

30、 35.5的份额，其次为香港（19.5），随后为印度尼西亚（14.1）。 固固固固 定定定定 收收收收 益益益益 研研研研 究究究究 4 Fixed Income Research mainly due to the dominance from Korea and HK issuers. Other investment-grade issuance contributed 15.6%. In the high yield sector, BB-rated made up 24.5% of the total, being the second largest piece of the pi

31、e. 2. Statistic characteristics of Asian new issue market, 2002-2009 We use the new issue data from 2002 to 2009 to compile some historical statistics for Asias new issuance market. Seasonality The new issue market follows a clear seasonal cycle, as shown by the average monthly per-centage chart bas

32、ed on annual issuance (see Fig. 3). 图图图图 3: 2009 年年年年亚洲新债发售情况亚洲新债发售情况亚洲新债发售情况亚洲新债发售情况：平均每月发行的平均每月发行的平均每月发行的平均每月发行的年度百分比年度百分比年度百分比年度百分比/ Figure 3: 2009 Asian new issuance: average monthly percentage of annual issu-ance 3%5%7%9%11%13%Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunJulAug Sep Oct Nov DecSource: Bond Radar, Blo

33、omberg, BOCI The seasonality largely follows the holiday cal-endar. January is a high month (11% of annual total) as the Christmas slowdown in the pre-vious December pushes many deals into the January month; February comes in as a low month (5%) when most countries in Asia are on some of the most im

34、portant holidays (Chinese New Year in many Asian countries/regions and Korean New Year). New issuance gradually picks up pace in March and April and then peak in the May-June period (10.5%-11%) before starting to unwind for the summer vacations. The market becomes the slowest at the height of summer

35、 lull in August (3.5%). New issuance then jumps in September out of the pipeline jammed from the summer lull and then stays in force throughout autumn (from Sep. to Nov.) before the Christmas-holiday slowdown in De-cember (4). Recent issuance trend Issuance from the high-grade sector has 中国几乎排尾，占 2.

36、1，这显示中国的债券发行人在今年发行活动仍低迷。 从债券质量上看（见图 2b），A 级债占 55.7%，超出总数的一半，其中来自韩国和香港的债券占主导地位。至于其它投资级债占 15.6。在高收益债中，BB 级占 24.5，百分比排名第二。 2.2.2.2. 2002200220022002 至至至至 2009200920092009 年亚洲新债发行市场的统计年亚洲新债发行市场的统计年亚洲新债发行市场的统计年亚洲新债发行市场的统计特征特征特征特征 我们采用 2002 到 2009 年新债发行的数据展现亚洲新债市场的统计特征。 季节性季节性季节性季节性 新债发行市场遵循明显的季节周期性，图 3 显

37、示了平均每月发行的年度百分比。 季节周期性大致遵循假期的时间表。1 月是新债发售较高的月份（占年发行总量的 11），源于 12 月的圣诞假期将许多新债交易推迟到1 月。2 月为新债发售较低的月份，时值亚洲大多数国家的一些重要的节假日（包括亚洲许多国家和地区均庆祝的中国新年，及韩国新年）。新债发行量在 3 月和 4 月逐渐增速，在5 月和 6 月升至高潮（10.5-11），其后到来的暑期里发债则放缓。市场在 8 月暑期高潮时也变得最为缓慢（3.5）。新债发售在 9月份升高，并持续整个秋天，直至年末的 12月圣诞节期间再次趋于平淡（4）。 新债市场近来的趋势新债市场近来的趋势新债市场近来的趋势新债

38、市场近来的趋势 高级债的发行在 2009 年飙升。 在金融危机前，高级债年发行量在 2003 年至 2007 年期间稳定在 220 至 260 亿美元之间。 该发行额在 2008年因金融危机跌至 79 亿美元。由于亚洲经济在 2009 年领先世界复苏， 2009 年的发行量跃至近 400 亿美元， 与今年全球发行创纪录的趋势相一致。 在高收益债方面，发行额在 2005 年达到顶峰165 亿美元后逐年下降，于 2008 年达到低谷， 固固固固 定定定定 收收收收 益益益益 研研研研 究究究究 5 Fixed Income Research 只有 60 亿新债售毕。与高级债枑似，高收益债在 200

39、9 年大幅增加，约有 143 亿新债发售，整体水平与 2005 年高点相若。 图图图图 4: 亚洲新债发售情况亚洲新债发售情况亚洲新债发售情况亚洲新债发售情况：投资级与投资级与投资级与投资级与高收益债高收益债高收益债高收益债(单位单位单位单位：十十十十亿美元亿美元亿美元亿美元)/ Figure 4: Asian new issuance: IG vs. HY (in $bn) 01020304020022003200420052006200720082009投资级投资级投资级投资级/ / / /IGIGIGIG高收益高收益高收益高收益/ / / /HYHYHYHY未评级未评级未评级未评级/ /

40、 / /NANANANASource: Bond Radar, Bloomberg, BOCI 从行业看，企业债在大多数年份占主导地位，其次为银行债和主权债。在 2009 年债券发行飙升前， 企业债的发行于 2005 年达到高点(220 亿美元)，而银行债在 2007 年达到高点（230 亿美元）。主权债则在 2004 年至 2008 年间稳步下滑。所有三枑债券的发行在 2009 年均比 2008年显著上涨，特别是企业债总量总计增加至 310亿美元。 主权债的发行也超过了 2004 年的高峰，达到 110 亿美元。 然而， 银行债的发行仍然疲软，2009 年发行额仅 130 亿美元，远低于危机

41、前2007 年的 230 亿美元的水平。 香港香港香港香港/ / / /中国新债发行中国新债发行中国新债发行中国新债发行 在香港/中国境外市场，新债发行在过去的几年里变化显著（见图 6）。 总体来看，发行额从2003 年顶点的 135 亿美元稳定下滑至 2008 年的 32 亿，而 2009 年又回涨至 120 亿美元。 从枑别来看，高收益债的发行在 2004 至 2007年间快速上涨直至 2008 年全球金融危机而陷入萧条。 2005 年至 2007 年间每年高收益债的发行额位于 25 亿至 40 亿美元的区间里。2009 年高收益债发行重启（约 11 亿美元），但仍远低于jumped in

42、 2009. Before the financial crisis, the annual volume from the sector was fairly stable in the $22-$26bn range from 2003 to 2007. The volume plunged to $7.9bn in 2008 due to the crisis. As the Asia was leading the world to recover from the global crisis in 2009, HG is-suance jumped to near $40bn, in

43、line with the global trend that saw a record new issuance during the year. In the high-yield area, after peaking at $16.5bn in 2005 the annual volume started to decline and hit the bottom in 2008 when only $6bn of new HY bonds were brought out to the market. Similar to the HG market, issuance increa

44、sed dramatically in 2009, with a total of about 14.3bn bonds issued, which was at the same level of the 2005 high. 图图图图 5:亚洲亚洲亚洲亚洲新债发售情况新债发售情况新债发售情况新债发售情况：行业行业行业行业分布分布分布分布(单位单位单位单位：十亿美十亿美十亿美十亿美元元元元) / Figure 5: 2009 Asian new issuance by industry (in $bn) 010203020022003200420052006200720082009银行债银行

45、债银行债银行债/ / / /BankBankBankBank企业债企业债企业债企业债/ / / /CorpCorpCorpCorp主权债主权债主权债主权债/ / / /SovSovSovSovSource: Bond Radar, Bloomberg, BOCI By industrial sectors, corporate borrowers have for most of the years been the leading issuance sector, followed by banks and then sovereigns. Before the new issuance s

46、urge in 2009, corpo-rate issuance reached the high point ($22bn) in 2005, while that from banks hit the high ($23bn) in 2007. Sovereign issuance has been in a steady decline since 2004 until 2008. In 2009, issuance from all the three sectors rose significantly from 2008, led by corporates which jump

47、ed to $31bn in total. Sovereign is-suance also surpassed its 2004 peak to reach $11bn. However, bank issuance remained slack, with only $13bn of total in 2009, which is much lower than the pre-crisis level of $23bn of 2007. China/HK new issuance In the HK/China market, offshore new issuance 固固固固 定定定

48、定 收收收收 益益益益 研研研研 究究究究 6 Fixed Income Research also shows some significant changes over the years (see Fig.6). Overall issuance was largely in a steady decline from the 2003 peak of $13.5bn to the 2008 low of $3.2bn and then surged back to $12bn in 2009. At the sector level, high-yield issuance was o

49、n a fast rise over the 2004-2007 period before the full-blow of global financial crisis in 2008. The total annual HY issuance was at the $2.5bn -$4bn range during 2005-2007. The pace picked up again in 2009 (about $1.1bn) but still far bellow the average volume of 2005-2007. 2005 至 2007 年的水平。 图图图图 6

50、: 香港香港香港香港/中国中国中国中国新债新债新债新债：投资级与高收益债投资级与高收益债投资级与高收益债投资级与高收益债(单位单位单位单位：十十十十亿美元亿美元亿美元亿美元) / Figure 6: HK/China new issuance: IG vs. HY (in $bn) 05101520022003200420052006200720082009投资级投资级投资级投资级/ / / /IGIGIGIG高收益高收益高收益高收益/ / / /HYHYHYHY未评级未评级未评级未评级/ / / /NANANANA Source: Bond Radar, Bloomberg, BOCI 固固

51、固固 定定定定 收收收收 益益益益 研研研研 究究究究 7 Fixed Income Research Listed Companies in this Report China Water (0855.HK/HKD2.76, NOT RATED) Country Garden (2007.HK/HKD2.90, HOLD) SJM Holdings Limited (0880.HK/HKD4.20, NOT RATED) Shun Tak Holdings Limited (0242.HK/HKD4.72, NOT RATED) Prices as of 18 December 2009 A

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