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1、翻译整理：空头 The Time Factor of W.D. Gann 江恩的时间因素 江恩的时间因素 By James Smithson 詹姆斯.史密森 W. D. Ganns outstanding skill was his ability to produce accurate annual forecasts of the stock and commodity markets. Gann stated that his forecasts were based on his secret “time factor”. However, careful analysis of h
2、is novel entitled “The Tunnel Thru The Air” reveals Ganns belief in the overwhelming importance of astrology. Therefore astrology is the real basis of Ganns annual forecasts. Indeed, astrological analysis is implicit at key points in his books and courses. Consequently it is concluded that if we wis
3、h to emulate Ganns outstanding forecasting skills we must follow in his footsteps by firstly learning astrology and then apply this knowledge to the stock and commodity markets. 江恩最突出的成绩就是他有能力在每年的期刊上正确的预测股票和期货。 江恩的 定期预测是建立在他自己的神秘的“时间因素”上的。但是，细心的研究者在他 的名为“空中隧道”的小说中会发现，小说展示了江恩对占星术重要性的深刻信 仰。因此占星术就是江恩定期
4、性预测的真实基础。当然，占星分析在他的书籍和 课程中只是一种暗示性的关键点。因此可以断言，假如你希望仿效江恩的突出预 测水平， 就必须跟随他的脚步首先去学习占星术然后将这种知识应用于股票和期 货市场。 T H E “ T I M E F A C T O R ” I S T H E K E Y T O G A N N S F O R E C A S T S 时间因素是江恩预测的核心 T H E “ T I M E F A C T O R ” I S T H E K E Y T O G A N N S F O R E C A S T S 时间因素是江恩预测的核心 Ganns forecasts o
5、f the stock and commodity markets were based on the “time factor” 。Gann provided the following comments on the time factor: 江恩关于股票和期货市场的预测是基于时间因素， 江恩给出了下面这些时间因素 的一些解释： “The most important thing of all is the Time factor, which I use in making up my annual forecasts. It is not my object here to give
6、away that secret, but I am showing you plain enough and giving you rules enough that, if you follow them, you will be able to make a success in the stock market” (“Truth Of The Stock Tape”, 1923, page 116). 在所有事物中最重要的是时间因素，我用它来建立我每年的预测。这里我没有义 务来展示所有的秘密。但是我会给你足够的证明和足够的法则方法，假如你跟随 这些方法，你将能够在股票市场取得成功。-股
7、票图形中的真理116 页 翻译整理：空头 “Many people want to know what method I use to determine future indications on the market. I keep charts of the various active stocks and also a set of averages. My charts are different from the charts of the average statistician because they are based on a discovery of my own.
8、 I have discovered a time factor that enables me to determine important tops and bottoms one year or more in advance. My annual forecasts on stocks, issued in December for ten years past, have proved remarkably correct. The cotton and grain markets can also be forecast by this time factor, which ena
9、bles me to tell when extreme highs and lows will be made, as well as the minor moves” (“Truth Of The Stock Tape”, 1923, page 41). 很多人都想知道我用什么样的方法来确定未来市场的走向。 我使用多种现行的股 票图表并也根据它们进行买卖交易。我的图表和一般的统计性图表不同，它使用 了我自己发现的一些东西作为基础。 我发现了一种时间因素以使我能够确定一年 内甚至更长时间的重要顶部和底部。我每年一期的出版物在 12 月份已经满 10 年了，显然证明是成功的。棉花和谷物市场也同
10、样可以用这种时间因素来进行预 测， 这种时间因素能够告诉我最终的高点和低点在那里， 对次级波动也同样有效。 -股票图形中的真理第 41 页 “The time factor and time periods are most important in determining a change in trend because time can over balance price, and when the time is up the volume of sales will increase and force prices higher or lower” (“45 Years In W
11、all Street”, 1941, page 10). 时间因素和时间周期是确定趋势转变的最重要因素， 因为时间可以超过价格的平 衡，当时间到达成交量将增加并迫使价格走高或走低。-华尔街 45 年第 10 页。 “Time is the most important factor of all and not until sufficient time has expired does any big move start up or down. The time factor will overbalance both space and volume. When time is up,
12、space movement will start and large volume will begin, either up or down. At the end of any important movement - monthly, weekly or daily - Time must be allowed for accumulation or distribution or for buying and selling to be completed” (“How To Make Profits In Commodities”, 1951, page 56). 时间是最重要的因
13、素，时间如果不到它的期限，比较大的上涨和下跌不会发生。 时间因素将失去和空间以及成交量之间的平衡， 当时间到达， 空间的移动将开始， 并开始产生巨大的成交量，不论上涨或下跌都一样。在重要的波动结束的时候， 月，周，日，时间的力量将被聚集或散布使得买卖交易过程终结。-如何在 期货市场获利第 56 页。 翻译整理：空头 Therefore we learn from Gann that: 1) The time factor is the most important element in forecasting markets; and therefore he used this time
14、factor in producing his highly-accurate annual forecasts of the stock and commodity markets. 2) The time factor is so fundamental that it precedes (and therefore causes) changes in prices and changes in volume in the stock and commodity markets. 3) The time factor is a valuable secret, details of wh
15、ich he is unwilling to reveal. He is however prepared to teach trading rules which, when properly applied, produce profits in the stock and commodity markets. 这里我们从江恩那里学到如下这些：时间因素是最重要的市场预测元素，因此他 用这种方法在期货和股票市场都取得了极高的成功率。 1）时间因素因为是基本因素所以它的改变超前于股票和期货市场中价格和成交 量的改变。 2）时间因素是个昂贵的秘密，他不愿意展现全部的详细资料，但他仍然愿意传 授一些适当应用的交易法则。 GANNS NOVEL ENTITLED “THE TUNNEL THRU THE AIR” 江恩所创作的小说标题为“空中隧道” GANNS NOVEL ENTITLED “THE TUNNEL THRU THE AIR” 江恩所创作的小说标题为“空中隧道” Although Gann was unwilling to explicitly reveal his time fac
