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1、LATIN AMERICA GOING TO THE POLLSMARCH 2018EMERGING MARKETS RESEARCH, LATAM MARCELO CARVALHO MCarvalhoEconLATAM MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK: CONTENTSLatin America in the global context3Brazil: Election time14Mexico: Changing gears36Colombia: Growth drivers a precious commodity64Argentina: In recovery mode7
2、6Chile: Growth acceleration in the horizon83Detailed forecasts88Page2GLOBAL: COMPOSITE LEADING INDICATOR (100=LONG-TERM AVG)Global expansionSource: OECD, BNP Paribas. 3GLOBAL MONETARY POLICYGlobal monetary policy: gradual removal of accommodationFed Funds target rate and 2yr Treasury bond yields (%,
3、 a.r.)Source: ECB, FED, BoJ, Macrobond, BNP Paribas4GLOBAL: HISTORICAL US DOLLAR CYCLESUS dollar cycles come in waves: we think the USD has peaked US Real effective exchange rate index (1973=100)Source: FED, Macrobond, BNP Paribas. Dotted line shows BNP Paribas forecast.90100110120130140150197019741
4、9781982198619901994199820022006201020142018REER, CPI based (1-year moving average)1973: Bretton Woods abandoned1981: Reagan president1985: Plaza accord2000: Tech crash1991: Gulf War US/EUR buy dollars2008: Financial crisis2017: America First policy5GLOBAL: USD (NEER) AND COMMODITY PRICESA weaker USD
5、 tends to boost international commodity pricesSource: S U.SMexicoChilePeruColombiaBrazilArgentinaIndiaVenezuelaEritrea56789101112020406080100120140160180200GDP per capita (USD) - Log scaleDoing Business RankBIGGER NUMBERS MEAN WORSE AT DOING BUSINESS RANK10LATAM: SOVEREIGN RATINGSBrazils rating down
6、grades in recent years contrast with othersSource: S improvement will be gradualSource: IBGE, Macrobond, BNP Paribas. PNAD data. Dotted lines represent BNPP forecasts.18Inflation plunges below target, for the first time in many yearsBRAZIL: CPI INFLATION AND TARGET RANGE (%, y/y)Source: IBGE, Macrob
7、ond, BNP Paribas. Dotted lines represent BNPP forecasts.19Underlying services price inflation has plummetedBRAZIL: SERVICES UNDERLYING INFLATION (% Y/Y)Source: IBGE, BCB, BNP Paribas. Service underlying ex- food (3mma a.r.) Service underlying ex- food (%,y/y)20Inflation expectations fall back to tar
8、getsBRAZIL: CONSENSUS INFLATION EXPECTATIONS (% Dec/Dec)Source: BCB Focus Survey average expectations, Macrobond, BNP Paribas21BRAZIL: EXPECTATIONS FOR END-2018 INFLATIONThe market consensus forecast on inflation is converging to our viewsSource: BCB Focus Survey median expectation, Macrobond, BNP P
9、aribas22BRAZIL: EXPECTATIONS FOR END-2018 POLICY RATEThe market consensus forecast on interest rates has been falling towards our callSource: BCB Focus Survey, Macrobond, BNP Paribas23Credit from public sector banks now shrinks, after surging for years BRAZIL: STOCK OF CREDIT (% OF GDP)Source: BCB,
10、Macrobond, BNP Paribas24Non-performing loans improve with the economys recoveryBRAZIL: NON-PERFORMING LOANS (AS % OF TOTAL LOANS)Source: BCB, BNP Paribas. % of total non-earmarked loans. 25BRAZIL: DEBT SERVICE (% OF MONTHLY DISPOSABLE INCOME)Servicing the debt is eating a smaller share of households
11、 disposable incomeSource: BCB, BNP Paribas. Dotted line represents BNPP forecast.151617181920212223242505 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1926BRAZIL: DEBT-TO-GDP RATIOS (% of GDP)Spending ceiling is key to improve the public sector debt dynamicsSource: BCB, Macrobond, BNP Paribas.Dotted lines
12、 represent BNPP forecasts27BRAZIL: SPENDING ON PENSIONS IS HIGH, GIVEN DEMOGRAPHICSBrazil spends a lot on pensions, given demographics, and prospects are challenging Source: OECD, World Bank, BNP Paribas; *Ratio of older dependents, people older than 64, to the working age population, those ages 156
13、4 Forecasts based on The World Banks report, “Growing Old in an Older Brazil”.CanadaChileDenmarkFranceGermanyGreeceItalyJapanNorwayPolandPortugalSpainSwedenTurkeyU.K U.SBrazil (2017)Brazil (2000)Brazil (2020)Brazil (2030)Brazil (2040)Brazil (2050)05101520255.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.0Dependen
14、cy age ratio*Pension spending (% of GDP)28BRAZIL: RETIREMENT AGE*Brazils current rules for retirement are very generousSource: OECD, BNP Paribas. Brazil: 65 is the proposed minimum retirement age. *For men who started to work with 20 years old.29ArgentinaBrazilChile ChinaDenmarkGermanyHongKongIndiaJ
15、apanMexicoNorwaySwedenSwitzerlandU.S5101520253035404550558.08.59.09.510.010.511.011.5LN GDP per capita, 2017 (PPP)Tax Burden (% GDP)Source: IMF, World Bank, UN, OECD, CIA World Factbook, BNP Paribas *BNPP forecastBRAZIL: TAX BURDEN (% GDP) VS PER CAPITA GDP (PPP)Brazils tax burden is high, given its
16、 per capita income30BRAZIL: FDI AND CURRENT ACCOUNTCurrent account deficit is easily covered by robust FDISource: BCB, BNP Paribas. Dotted lines are BNPP forecasts. Dotted lines are BNPP forecasts.31BRAZIL: USDBRL X COMMODITY PRICES (y/y %)Brazils currency is strongly correlated with international commodity pricesSource: Funcex, Macrobond, BNP Paribas. 32Taxes are high, the tax system is complex, infrastructure is poor, labour laws do not helpBRAZIL: STRUCTU
