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1、RBCs commodity price index is a Fisher chain-weighted index of spot or transaction prices of 24 of the top export- ed Canadian-produced commodities. The weight of each commodity in the overall index and various sub-indices is determined by its share of exports and is updated annually in February.COM
2、MODITY PRICE MONITOR February 21, 2018Commodity price index moved higher in JanuaryThe RBC commodity price index climbed 8.6% in January building upon the strength in the second half of 2017. The overall index displayed its largest monthly gain since the beginning of 2016. Widespread gains in all su
3、b- indices pushed the overall index 22% higher than in January 2017. Notably 13% rise in the energy products sub-index helped return the overall index to late 2014 levels. The index ex. energy posted a more modest 5.0% rise in January. The energy products sub-index in January continued on the steady
4、 up- ward trend established in early 2016 and climbed 13%. January marked the eighth consecutive monthly increase for the sub-index. Higher crude oil prices reflected a perfect storm of indicators with production issues in Venezuela and a rosier forecast of global economic growth, combined with decl
5、ining oil reserves. These factors pushed crude oil prices 9.9% higher in January.1Natural gas prices surged 40.6% in January amidst record demand due to colder than usual weather. Natural gas prices were 73% higher in January 2018 than they were at their recent lows in January 2016 converging to the
6、ir 10-year average level. The agricultural products sub-index rose a modest 2.2% higher in Janu- ary. Compared to a year-ago the sub-index was 9.2% higher. The sub- index continued to recover from the recent low in Q3-16 and has since risen 24.4%. The forest products sub-index climbed 4.9% in Januar
7、y to fully retrace the December decline and continued its upward trend. The sub-index was 42.2% higher than a year-ago. The driver was again lumber prices which soared to the highest level on record. Since the recent low point in October 2015 lumber prices have risen 101%. Strong supply and demand f
8、unda- mentals, coupled with the ongoing softwood lumber dispute between the U.S. and Canada, helped push lumber prices 6.8% higher in January. Du- ties were also applied to Canadian newsprint exports into the U.S. by its Department of Commerce. A final ruling is expected later in 2018 by the U.S. In
9、ternational Trade Commission.2 The non-precious metals * latest potato & salmon price based on percent change in BLS PPI indexPeriod averagesECONOMICS | RESEARCH7COMMODITY PRICE MONITOR | JANUARY 2018The material contained in this report is the property of Royal Bank of Canada and may not be reprodu
10、ced in any way, in whole or in part, without express authorization of the copyright holder in writing. The statements and statistics contained herein have been prepared by RBC Economics Research based on information from sources con- sidered to be reliable. We make no representation or warranty, exp
11、ress or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. This publication is for the information of investors and business persons and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities.Registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada. Royal Bank of Canada.Commodity price trends1U.S. E
12、nergy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2018.2RBC Capital Markets, Paper, Packaging & Forest Products, January 14, 2018.3RBC Capital Markets, Commodity Comment: Sunset?, January 25, 2018.201520162017Q2-17Q3-17Q4-17Nov-17Dec-17Jan-18Non-precious metals & mineralsAluminum
13、 (US $/lb)0.750.730.890.870.910.950.950.941.00Year-over-year % change-11.0-3.422.721.524.222.921.119.723.7Copper (US $/lb)2.492.212.802.572.883.093.103.083.21Year-over-year % change-19.9-11.526.819.733.029.025.420.023.4Iron Ore (US $/tonne)55.958.471.863.471.866.164.272.376.3Year-over-year % change-
14、42.44.622.813.222.4-6.6-12.1-9.7-5.1Lead (US $/lb)0.810.851.050.981.061.131.121.141.17Year-over-year % change-14.84.723.925.924.716.013.112.515.8Nickel (US $/lb)5.354.364.724.184.775.255.445.175.84Year-over-year % change-30.0-18.68.44.62.67.27.63.629.0Zinc (US $/lb)0.870.951.311.181.341.471.471.451.
15、56Year-over-year % change-10.98.638.335.431.428.626.019.527.1Potash (US $/tonne)302.9245.6217.5216.0217.0222.7222.0224.0225.0Year-over-year % change1.9-18.9-11.4-17.9-1.83.43.34.24.7Uranium (US $/lb)36.826.321.921.520.321.922.323.925.6Year-over-year % change9.8-28.4-16.7-22.0-20.311.920.524.615.7Pre
16、cious metalsGold (US $/ounce)1158.81250.11257.81257.31278.21275.51281.91264.41331.3Year-over-year % change-8.57.90.6-0.3-4.24.63.59.911.7Silver (US $/ounce)15.717.217.117.216.916.717.016.217.1Year-over-year % change-17.79.4-0.71.8-14.2-2.7-2.5-1.71.3Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, RBC Economics ResearchPeriod averages
