《德银-欧洲-钢材市场-螺纹钢，板材和热镀锌价格随着商品持续走强而进一步上涨》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《德银-欧洲-钢材市场-螺纹钢，板材和热镀锌价格随着商品持续走强而进一步上涨（21页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、28 February 2018SteelSteel Price TrackerSteel SteelPeriodicalEurope FranceIndustrySteel Price TrackerDate 28 February 2018Deutsche BankMarkets ResearchUS rebar, plate and HDG prices rise further as commodity strength lastsStrong steel price momentum with scope for further margin expansionFigure 1: H
2、RC prices2002503003504004505005506006507007508008509009501,0001,050Feb 14May 14Aug 14Nov 14Feb 15May 15Aug 15Nov 15Feb 16May 16Aug 16Nov 16Feb 17May 17Aug 17Nov 17Feb 18Northern EuropeUSAChina exports to EuropeUSD/tSource: The Steel IndexEquities remain priced for a margin contraction (vs. spot). Ho
3、wever, as discussed in our European Steel Outlook 2018, we see several reasons (high global price levels, protectionism, demand and consolidation) why margins may continueto stick or even expand further (which would imply further significant earnings upgrades across the space). Post the publication
4、of the details on section 232 (which would be positive for all US exposed assets/players) the key questions are 1) How will the US Government decide (decision is due by 11th April) and 2) how may other regimes react to respond to both the US and any possible redirectionof material trade-flow. Our to
5、p pick is ArcelorMittal, which looks attractive to usbased on strong cash flow (9-11% FCF yield), valuation and additional upside optionality.HRC: N. European prices up E3 Last week, N. European prices were up by E3 to E571 (stable in USD terms at USD704) and S. European prices were also up by E2 to
6、 E552 (down in USD terms by USD1 USD681). Prices have risen E49 in the past three months.US HRC prices up USD3; Chinese export prices up USD3Figure 2: Raw material prices15020025030035040045050055030507090110130150170190210Feb 15May 15Aug 15Nov 15Feb 16May 16Aug 16Nov 16Feb 17May 17Aug 17Nov 17Feb 1
7、8Iron ore Fines 62% Fe, CFR Tianjin, ChinaShredded scrap, US (RHS)USD/tUSD/tSource: The Steel IndexUS HRC prices were up USD3 last week. The price differential with China remained stable at USD240/t. Chinese HRC prices were up by USD3 to USD588. The spread between Chinese and S. European prices fell
8、 to USD93, above the two-year average spread of USD62, with Chinese prices up E14 (up USD41) in the last three months.Plate: N. European prices up E2; US prices up USD27 N. European prices were up E2 to E603 (down in USD terms by USD1 to USD743). Prices rose E4 in the past month. S. European prices
9、were down E9 to E574 (down USD14 to USD707). US prices were up by USD27 to USD942 (up E25 to E764) and several players have pushed for another USD50/t price hike.Iron ore: Fines 62% Fe prices up USD1; coking coal: prices up USD3We value MT using an equal blend of forward EBITDA (6.0x 2018E) and DCF
10、(7.9% WACC, 2% Tg), and VOES using DCF (7.7% WACC, 1% Tg). Risks: weaker steel prices and demand divergence from our steel sector scenario.The price of Fines 62% were up by USD1 WoW to USD80dmt. Chinese steel output decreased 1.3% WoW to 1.76mt/day in the last ten days of January. Prices of premium
11、coking coal (Australian exports) increased by USD3 to USD236 last week. They also increased by E3 to E191.Bastian SynagowitzResearch Analyst+41-44-227-3377Top picksArcelorMittal (MT.AS),EUR28.55BuySource: Deutsche BankDeutsche Bank AG/LondonDeutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies
12、covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should beaware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AR
13、E LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017.Distributed on: 28/02/2018 02:03:08 GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa28 February 2018SteelSteel Price TrackerScrap: European prices down USD3 European prices were down by USD3 to USD340/t, while Turkish prices were up USD6 to USD358/t last week. If current prices were
14、to remain stable until end- Q1, the QoQ price increase for European scrap in Q1 would be USD32.Page 2Deutsche Bank AG/London28 February 2018SteelSteel Price TrackerDeutsche Bank Steel 2) lower-than-expected steel prices, which could result in an erosion of earnings; 3) higher raw material and other
15、operating costs, whichcould limit earnings growth; 4) the political influence of governments in the steel trade; 5) expansion projects not progressing as expected; and 6) M as such, investors shouldtake expert legal and financial advice before entering into any transaction similar to or inspired by
16、the contents of this publication. The risk of loss in futures trading and options, foreign or domestic, can be substantial. As a result of the high degree of leverage obtainable in futures and options trading, losses may be incurred that are greater than the amount of funds initially deposited up to theoretically unlimited losses. Trading in options involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, investors must review the “Characteristics and Risks o
